907
FXHW60 PHFO 121344
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
344 AM HST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rather dry and stable weather will persist through Thursday, as
winds gradually shift around to the south and strengthen. A few
showers will remain possible along windward slopes and coasts at
night and over island interiors each afternoon. Showers will
slowly increase in coverage and intensity over the western islands
Thursday night into Friday as a weakening front moves in from the
west and stalls out near Kauai. A ridge building north of the
state should bring a return to drier conditions and light to
moderate trades Friday night and Saturday, although showery
weather will develop across windward Big Island as some deeper
moisture moves in from the east. A new front will strengthen south
to southwest winds and bring unsettled weather, and potentially
heavy showers, into the area Sunday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered around 1350
miles east-northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge extending westward
to a position around 125 miles north of Kauai. Light to moderate
east-southeasterly trades prevail in unsheltered areas from Oahu
to the Big Island, with land breezes present elsewhere. Infrared
satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions across
the state, with a bit more cloud cover over windward Big Island.
Radar imagery shows a few light showers affecting windward
slopes and coasts. Main short term focus revolves around the
incoming front at the end of the work week.

The ridge north of the islands will keep land and sea breezes
dominant across much of the state through tonight, with light to
moderate east-southeasterly trades holding on in the unsheltered
sections over the eastern islands. Winds will pick up out of the
south on Thursday as a front approaches the area, reaching
moderate speeds by late in the day over the western islands, while
a more southeast component and lighter speeds hold over the
eastern end of the state. The front will fizzle out over or near
Kauai late Thursday night and Friday, with winds lightening up
across the state and land/sea breezes becoming dominant. The front
or its remnants will lift northward Friday night and Saturday,
allowing ridging to the northeast to become more dominant and
bring a return of light of moderate trade winds. The trades won`t
last long, as yet another approaching front will shift winds
southerly at moderate speeds for Sunday, followed by easing winds
and land/sea breezes on Monday as the front dissipates over the
central islands. High pressure building rapidly eastward to the
north of the state may re-establish trades again next Tuesday.

As for the remaining weather details, dry and stable weather will
continue through Thursday. A few showers will remain possible
over windward slopes and coasts at night, particularly over the
eastern end of the state, with a shower or two possible over the
interior of all islands each afternoon. The boundary layer should
begin to moisten up Thursday night, bringing a bit more shower
activity northward in the southerly flow. These showers will
favor south facing slopes and coasts mainly over the western
islands. As deeper moisture associated with the decaying front
arrives on Friday, we should see shower coverage and intensity
pick up over the western islands, particularly on Kauai where a
few downpours will be possible. The eastern end of the state will
remain rather dry, with nothing more than a few isolated showers
possible during the afternoon hours.

Scattered showers may hold on into the evening hours Friday over
Kauai, before drier conditions move in after midnight. Elsewhere,
mostly dry conditions will prevail, with the exception of windward
Big Island where some deeper moisture moving in from the east will
bring an increase in shower coverage and intensity through the
night. Showery weather looks to hold on over windward Big Island
on Saturday, while mostly dry weather prevails over the smaller
islands. The next front will begin to draw some of the deeper
moisture around the Big Island northward into the smaller islands
Saturday night, increasing showers over south facing slopes and
coasts. Some unsettled weather then appears on track to affect the
state in association with the front Sunday through Monday, with
some heavier showers and even a few rumbles of thunder not out of
the question. A trade wind pattern appears to return next Tuesday,
but lingering moisture and instability may keep showers a bit more
robust than normal.


&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate ESE winds expected through today with a
relatively dry and stable airmass overhead. Winds will be light
enough to allow for some sea breezes. Low cigs and brief SHRA
possible over interior and leeward areas. MVFR conds can be
expected in SHRA but otherwise VFR conds should prevail.

No AIRMETs are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge just north of Kauai will maintain gentle
southeast or variable winds over the western half of the island
chain and moderate east to southeast winds around the Big Island
and Maui today. An approaching front will push the ridge over the
islands veering winds to more of a southeast to south direction
and strengthening them to moderate speeds for the western half of
the state Thursday. The front will stall and weaken near Kauai on
Friday as high pressure approaches from the northwest, leading to
a decrease in winds and eventually bringing a return of gentle
trades. As the high builds and rapidly moves off to the northeast,
easterly trade winds will strengthen on Saturday, with Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions possible over the typically windy
areas. Winds will decrease and shift out of the south as another
front approaches on Sunday.

Offshore NOAA buoy 51001 has been hovering around 9 to 11 feet 14
to 16 seconds overnight due to a reinforcing boost that will keep
surf elevated through today. The High Surf Warning has been
cancelled and replaced with an advisory. A High Surf Advisory is
now in effect through early Thursday morning for north and west
facing shores of Kauai, Niihau, Oahu, Molokai, north facing shores
of Maui and west facing shores of the Big Island. The SCA for
seas of 10 ft or more, around Kauai and north of Oahu has also
been extended through late this afternoon. Surf will fall below
advisory levels Thursday, followed by another large pulse of west-
northwest swell on Friday and Saturday.

Surf along east and south facing shores will remain small through
the week, though a modest uptick in waves on the south shore is
possible later Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kona-
Kohala-Kauai North-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central
Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Almanza