437
FXHW60 PHFO 290159
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
359 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Tropical Storm Fausto will track northwest of Maui and the Big
Island tonight allowing winds to become light and variable. Breezy
northerly trade winds will hold over the western half of the
state through tonight. Expect numerous to scattered clouds and
light to moderate showers windward along northerly exposed slopes
with some spillage over the leeward areas. Light and variable
winds will then shift over Kauai and Oahu Wednesday while breezy
southeast winds develop over the eastern end of the state as
Fausto continues to weaken and tracks northwest of the state. In
this lighter wind regime, land/sea breeze pattern will develop.
Localized heavy showers will remain possible through Wednesday. A
more typical drier and stable trade wind weather pattern will
filter in across the state Thursday onward as Fausto dissipates
and the trailing tongue of tropical moisture moves west of the
islands.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows Tropical Storm Fausto roughly 260 miles
northeast of Hilo this afternoon. Bands of low level clouds
spiraling from Fausto are moving in from the north and northeast
along the breezy low level wind flow produced between a high
pressure system far northwest of the state and Fausto. Radar
imagery and observations continue to shows numerous to scattered,
light to moderate showers focusing along windward and mauka
locations with some showers spilling over to leeward areas. Hourly
rainfall totals have trended down some since this morning and are
now ranging between .02 to .15 inches with some of the wetter
areas receiving around .25 inches.

Rainfall rates will likely pick this evening along for the
western half of the state. As Tropical Storm Fausto continues a
west- northwest track north of the state, winds will become light
and variable over the the Big Island and Maui County this evening.
Under this light wind regime land breezes will push any diurnal
showers offshore over the eastern half of the state.

On Wednesday, Fausto is expected to pass 160 miles north of Oahu
allowing winds to weaken to light and variable while light southeast
winds develop over Maui and the Big Island. Under this light and
sheltered wind regime clouds and showers will be able to develop
upslope of mountain ranges and over interior areas. Confidence in
the flooding threat from Fausto remains low but localized heavy
showers can not be ruled out. Thus will continue to monitor all
available observations. By Wednesday night, Fausto will continue
to weaken remnant low and begin to gain distance northwest of the
state as breezy southeast winds fill across the island chain.

Thursday through the rest of the forecast period. A strong high
will develop northeast of the state allowing breezy to locally
strong trade winds to return. Expect a more typical tradewind
pattern with showers focused mainly along windward and mauka
areas. Drier air will also filter allowing dewpoints to dip below
70 degrees by Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate N-NE winds will continue through this evening delivering
showers to most windward and mountain areas. As Tropical Storm
Fausto continues its WNW track north of the islands, winds will
begin to weaken from east to west across the state. This will
allow a land and sea breeze pattern to develop starting tonight,
which will likely provide afternoon showers over island interiors
tomorrow. Expect MVFR conditions within any showers, and isolated
IFR conditions in heavier showers. VFR will prevail elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for windward
sections of Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai. Mountain obscurations are
also possible later tonight for Maui and the Big Island due to
upstream showers. No other AIRMET`s are in effect.

Aviation interests near the Hawaiian Islands should monitor
updates to TC SIGMET Sierra, which covers Fausto, as the system
passes north of the islands over the next few days.


&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds will be in place over the
western half of the state through tonight as Tropical Storm Fausto
nears the central islands. As Fausto passes by through Wednesday,
winds will be light and variable over the coastal waters, followed
by southerly then southeasterly winds immediately in its wake. As
Fausto moves off to the northwest and high pressure builds to the
north, east- northeast trades will build back in on Thursday then
strengthen to fresh to locally strong levels on Friday through
the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for
the windward waters and channels due to high seas from the east
swell through tonight.

Nearshore buoys on the eastern side of the islands are still running
high with the medium- and long-period energy from Fausto, with the
buoys near Oahu and Kauai coming up as well. The surf is expected
to gradually drop off tonight through Wednesday. A High Surf Warning
for east facing shores remains in effect through Wednesday afternoon,
but could be downgraded earlier if surf heights drop faster than
expected. East shore surf will trend back up Friday into the weekend
due to a combination of rising trade wind swell and a new long-period
east swell generated by Hurricane Genevieve.

A series of south swells will keep south shore surf near the summer
average (5-6ft) through the week. Surf along N shores could also see
some brief increase as Fausto (or its remnants) pass near the region
through Wednesday, then return to typical flat to tiny levels late
Wednesday into the weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Olomana-Maui
Windward West-Kauai East-East Honolulu-Koolau Windward-Molokai
Windward-Molokai Southeast-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-Big
Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu
Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-
Big Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...TS