647
FXHW60 PHFO 221920
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
920 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy trade winds will strengthen through the week
and deliver showers to windward and mountain areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Radar and satellite imagery show a batch of moisture moving across
the western end of the state this morning, with scattered to
numerous showers tracking into windward Oahu and Kauai. Based on
upstream moisture trends seen on satellite and high-res model
guidance, shower activity is expected to wane by this afternoon.
High pressure to the far northeast will maintain moderate to
breezy trades across the state today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2026

Current radar and satellite imagery this morning show isolated to
scattered showers passing through windward and mountain areas of
all islands. This summer time trade wind shower pattern should
continue through at least the weekend with minor fluctuations in
rainfall as pockets of slightly drier and wetter air move through
with the trade winds. A stable ridge overhead will keep most of
these showers on the lighter side.

The trade winds will be supported by building high pressure to
the north, becoming breezy to locally strong today through the
remainder of the week. A weakening TC Fausto then approaches the
area early next week with guidance generally tracking the system
near or just north of the islands during the mid- week period. So
far it is too early to know exact details on how this storm will
effect our weather, as it will be heavily dependent on the
eventual track and intensity.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light shower activity will continue to wane through the morning,
however periodic MVFR remains possible across windward sites so
long as shower activity persists. Moderate trades are expected
through the forecast period, with skies partially clearing across
the islands by the afternoon.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for the windward Kauai, Oahu, and Maui
due to low clouds from ongoing showers. Conditions, however, are
expected to improve by the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will maintain fresh to
locally strong trades through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) remains in effect for the typical windier channels and
waters around Maui and the Big Island for the strengthening trade
winds. Trades are expected to strengthen another notch Thursday
into Friday as a 1036 mb high develops far north of the state.
Widespread fresh to strong winds are expected during this time
with near gales possible for the windier waters around Maui County
and the Big Island. The SCA will be expanded to other area waters
as the trades pick up later this week. The strong high to the
north is expected to eventually shift westward and weaken some,
which should allow the trade winds to weaken a notch around
Sunday. Trends in the strength and direction of winds early next
week become less clear as a result of the uncertain track of a
weakening Hurricane Fausto (forecast to become a tropical storm by
Monday) in the central Pacific.

The current medium-period south-southeast swell producing above
average surf along south-facing shores will continue to gradually
fade over the next few days, allowing surf to diminish somewhat this
afternoon after this morning`s bump in south shore surf. Offshore
buoys are showing an increase in 23 second energy this morning as
forerunners from the next notable incoming south swell slowly fill in
throughout the day today. This will allow surf to increase again
tonight into Thursday and peak above advisory thresholds and
possibly approaching warning levels late Thursday into Friday.
Over the weekend, reinforcing long-period swell energy may allow
advisory level surf to persist.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain slightly below seasonal
levels through the evening due to the weaker trades upstream of
the islands. The Hilo buoy continues to show a small, medium-
period east swell this evening, which was likely generated by
former TC Elida. Stronger trade winds will also support an
increase of short-period energy heading into Thursday and Friday.
This weekend, larger surf generated by Hurricane Fausto is
possible and could bring advisory level surf along east facing
shores.

Surf along north-facing shores will remain at flat to tiny levels
through the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Farris
DISCUSSION...Tsamous
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Quesada