942
FXHW60 PHFO 150629
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
829 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate trades will strengthen through Wednesday. Moisture
from the remains of Norbert should move through the islands
Wednesday night through Friday morning as trades strengthen to
moderate to fresh levels. Drier air will move back in this weekend
as trades continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Isolated showers were detected by radar across windward areas on
Maui, Molokai, and Big Island this evening. A significant area of
showers was offshore of Big Island north of Hilo, but it looks
like it will remain offshore. Otherwise, trade winds were
averaging 5 to 15 mph. Winds are still forecast to increase in the
coming days as we prepare for a wet period from late Wednesday
into early Friday. Latest models continue to show the possibility
of heavy rain through that period. No changes are needed at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

Visible satellite shows mostly cloudy skies and scattered light
showers over and upstream of the Big Island due to an area of
tropical moisture moving in with the trade wind flow. Elsewhere,
partly cloudy skies persist around the state with gentle to
moderate trade winds. Expect the batch of clouds and showers to
slowly track westward tonight into Tuesday night before exiting to
the west. Rainfall amounts will not be significant, but a
noticeable boost in humidity will occur.

We then turn attention towards the remnant of Tropical Storm
Norbert, which is is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday.
Norbert has the potential to bring heavy rain, isolated
thunderstorms and high humidity from late Wednesday night through
Friday morning, though wind and surf will not pose any threat.

Trades will strengthen to moderate to breezy speeds by late
Wednesday into Thursday, the focus of the heavy rain will be over
windward and mauka areas, but leeward areas are likely to see
impacts from the rain as well. A Flood Watch may be warranted
especially for Thursday into Thursday night, but we will wait to
see what the high res models show as we get closer to the second
half of the week.

Over the weekend, while the bulk of the deep tropical moisture
should move west of the state, showery weather could linger
through at least parts of Saturday. But generally improving
weather conditions are expected this weekend with moderate to
breezy trade winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trade winds will continue into Tuesday, then gradually
strengthen to become locally breezy Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. Moisture along a dissipating surface trough moving over
the eastern end of the state this evening will move up the island
chain through the day on Tuesday and increase windward cloud and
shower coverage as it passes through. MVFR conditions are possible
especially over the eastern end of the state where there is
greater shower coverage. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will
prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for the
Big Island and may be needed through Tuesday morning as showers
linger.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist through
Tuesday as a weak trough lingers to the northeast. By Wednesday,
building high pressure will increase the trade winds into the
fresh to locally strong range through the weekend. Also by
Wednesday afternoon, the remnants of Norbert will move through as
a trough and increase shower coverage over Hawaiian waters.

Small surf along south-facing shores will continue through
Tuesday before a series of long-period S to SSW swells are
expected to arrive Wednesday through the weekend. The first pulse
will gradually fill in tonight into Wednesday out of the
southwest, followed by larger south-southwest swells Friday into
the weekend. As a result of these swells, surf will gradually
trend upward through the week beginning Wednesday and could
approach advisory thresholds by the weekend.

Surf along east-facing shores should see an increase during the
second half of the week as the trades strengthen and the remnants
of Tropical Storm Norbert move through the islands. Flat to tiny surf
along north facing shores is expected through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due to
light to moderate winds and the effects of recent rainfall.
Inversion heights should be 6000 to 7000 ft through Tuesday.
Moisture increases Thu/Fri, and should bring enough showers to
keep things relatively wet.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Parker
DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Tsamous