998
FXHW60 PHFO 081359
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
359 AM HST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move down the island chain through Sunday,
bringing an increase in showers, especially along windward
slopes. Breezy to windy east-northeasterly trades will fill in
behind the front and persist through much of next week as strong
high pressure builds north of the islands. Typical windward and
mauka showers will prevail under the trade flow, with generally
drier conditions leeward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Infrared satellite imagery early this morning shows a cold front
approaching the western end of the state, with light winds and
isolated to scattered light showers in advance of the boundary.
The front is expected to reach Kauai by mid-morning, Oahu later
this afternoon or evening, and progress down the island chain to
the Big Island by early Sunday morning. Light and variable winds
will prevail ahead of the front, shifting to breezy to windy east-
northeasterly trades in its wake.

Moisture pooling along and just ahead of the boundary will bring
an uptick in showers as it moves southeast, primarily affecting
windward and mauka areas, but some showers may also blow over
island terrain to reach leeward areas of the smaller islands as
well. Mid-level ridging in place over the region will act to
limit vertical development, keeping rainfall rates modest overall.
In addition, the relatively quick-moving nature of the front will
also help to limit flooding concerns. However, model guidance is
still showing that certain windward areas (particularly across
Maui County and the Big Island) could receive a couple of inches
of rain Saturday evening through Sunday, so have continued to
reflect that in this mornings forecast package.

Breezy to windy east-northeasterly trades will become established
across the state early next week as high pressure builds to the
north. Another reinforcing front with an even stronger high
pressure system will arrive midweek, providing another boost in
the east-northeasterly trades. With mid level ridging persisting
over the region, inversion heights will remain low, keeping the
moisture confined to lower levels and focusing clouds and showers
over windward and mauka areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds will continue ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move across Kauai later this morning and
progress down the island chain to reach the Big Island by sometime
Sunday morning. Enhanced shower activity is expected along the
frontal boundary as it passes through, along with breezy east-
northeasterly trades. VFR conditions will generally prevail ahead
of the front, with MVFR conditions expected with the showers as
they pass through.

No AIRMETs are in effect this morning, but AIRMET Tango for low-
level turbulence over and downstream of island terrain and AIRMET
Sierra for mountain obscuration across windward areas may be
needed as the cold front advances across the island chain.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front, currently residing just outside of our coastal
waters, will press southeast and proceed down the island chain
through Sunday. Fresh to locally strong north-northeast winds will
develop in the wake of this front along with building seas. A
Small Craft Advisory for both winds and seas will likely be needed
for most marine zones tonight and beyond to account for these
hazardous conditions. Northeast winds are forecast to remain fresh
to strong through mid next week as high pressure builds north of
the area.

The current small to moderate, medium period, northwest swell
(330 degrees) will remain steady this morning and keep surf near
seasonal averages along north facing shores. A north to south
oriented fetch, generated from a gale force low far north of the
state, will send a large, medium period, northerly swell our
direction by late today. This swell will help build surf heights
to near or above High Surf Advisory thresholds along north facing
shores tonight through Sunday. This swell will also favor harbor
surges in north facing harbors such as Kahului and Hilo on Sunday.
Moderate to large north- northeast swell will keep surf elevated
along north facing shores through at least early next week.

Light and variable winds will maintain small surf along east
facing shores this morning. As the front moves down the island
chain through Sunday, winds will shift northeasterly and increase
in strength. This, combined with a large, moderate period, north-
northeast swell (010-030 degrees) will bring elevated surf and
choppy conditions to east facing shores through at least early
next week. A High Surf Advisory may be needed during the peak of
the event.

A small, long period, south-southwest swell will keep surf heights
near seasonal averages along south facing shores today. Expect a
bump in south shore surf Sunday through mid next-week as a couple
more small, long period, south swells arrive.

Peak monthly tides combined with water levels that are running
higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas during this mornings high
tide. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through noon
today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the
forecast period. Winds will remain light across most of the state
today ahead of the approaching front, with elevated relative
humidity values. The front will reach Kauai later this morning and
make it to the Big Island by sometime Sunday morning. Breezy to
windy trades are forecast to fill in behind the front and persist
through next week, but low-level moisture embedded within the
trades will help keep relative humidity from reaching critical
thresholds.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...Farris