176
FXHW60 PHFO 221353
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
353 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy trade winds will increase through the week and
deliver showers to windward and mountain areas.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar and satellite imagery this morning show isolated to
scattered showers passing through windward and mountain areas of
all islands. This summer time trade wind shower pattern should
continue through at least the weekend with minor fluctuations in
rainfall as pockets of slightly drier and wetter air move through
with the trade winds. A stable ridge overhead will keep most of
these showers on the lighter side.

The trade winds will be supported by building high pressure to
the north, becoming breezy to locally strong today through the
remainder of the week. A weakening TC Fausto then approaches the
area early next week with guidance generally tracking the system
near or just north of the islands during the mid- week period. So
far it is too early to know exact details on how this storm will
effect our weather, as it will be heavily dependent on the
eventual track and intensity.


&&

.AVIATION...

Light shower activity will continue to wane through the morning,
however periodic MVFR remains possible across windward sites so
long as shower activity persists. Moderate trades are expected
through the forecast period, with skies partially clearing across
the islands by the afternoon.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for the windward Kauai, Oahu, and Maui
due to low clouds from ongoing showers. Conditions, however, are
expected to improve by the afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will maintain fresh to
locally strong trades through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) remains in effect for the typical windier channels and
waters around Maui and the Big Island. Trades are expected to
strengthen another notch Thursday into Friday as a 1036 mb high
develops far north of the state. Widespread fresh to strong winds
are expected during this time with near gales possible for the
windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The SCA will
be expanded to other area waters as the trades pick up later this
week. The strong high to the north is expected to eventually
shift westward and weaken some, which should allow the trade winds
to weaken a notch around Sunday.

The current medium-period south-southeast swell producing above
average surf along south-facing shores will continue to gradually
fade over the next few days. Forerunners from the next notable
incoming south swell will slowly fill in throughout the day today
into Thursday and peak late Thursday into Friday with surf heights
above advisory thresholds. Offshore buoys are showing an increase
in 23 second energy this morning, so we should see some very
long-period energy slowly fill in today. Surf should reach High
Surf Advisory (HSA) thresholds by Thursday with surf heights
approaching warning levels during its peak. Over the weekend,
reinforcing long-period swell energy may allow HSA conditions to
persist through the weekend.

Surf along east-facing shores will gradually increase over the
next several days as the trades strengthen. The Hilo buoy
continues to show a small, medium- period east swell this morning,
which was likely generated by former TC Elida. This swell should
peak today into tonight with near seasonal level surf. This
weekend, larger surf generated by Hurricane Fausto is possible and
could bring advisory level surf along east facing shores.

Surf along north-facing shores will remain at flat to tiny levels
through the weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tsamous
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Kino