043
FXHW60 PHFO 120545
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
745 PM HST Tue Nov 11 2025

.UPDATE...
Based on latest guidance, opted to include leeward and windward
Maui zones into the current wind advisory through 6 AM Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad high far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy to
windy trades in the forecast through late Wednesday. Enhanced
shower activity and cloud coverage will remain focused over mainly
windward and mauka areas. Trades will weaken, becoming moderate
to breezy by Friday, as the high moves towards the northeast and
weakens later this week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 357 PM HST Tue Nov 11 2025/

The latest surface analysis places a broad 1036 mb high far north
of the Hawaiian Islands this afternoon. This is keeping breezy to
locally windy trades blowing across the islands, with some of the
wind prone areas on the Big Island and Maui briefly exceeding wind
advisory criteria of 30 mph. Trades are expected to increase late
tonight into Wednesday as the pressure gradient across the state
tightens, with more widespread and persistent winds exceeding
advisory criteria. Based on the latest guidance, a Wind Advisory
has been issued for portions of Maui County and the Big Island.
The strongest winds are expected to continue through Wednesday
night, then slowly weaken and become moderate to breezy by Friday
as the high drifts towards the northeast and weakens.

Throughout the week, the enhanced trades will bring periods of
shower activity, particularly across windward and mauka areas.
Guidance continues to show an uptick in shower activity on
Wednesday as an area of moisture associated with a dissipating
front gets embedded in the trade wind flow, with the bulk of the
moisture aimed at Maui and the Big Island. GFS total precipitable
water (PWAT) Normalized Anomaly continues to show PWATs around 1
to 2 standard deviations above normal during this time while the
ECMWF shows PWATs around 0 to 1 standard deviations above normal.
Either way, expect windward trade showers to be prominent through
the week, then gradually lessen heading into the weekend.

A slightly drier air mass will keep dew points mainly in the mid
60s through the week. A few hours of lower relative humidity is
once again possible late Wednesday morning as guidance shows a
transient dry slot moving across the state. This should be short-
lived as the low-level moisture embedded in the trades moves in by
Wednesday afternoon. Additional areas of moisture should help to
keep relative humidity elevated through the rest of the week.

In the longer range, by early next week, some model guidance
indicates an influx of an abundance of moisture will be pulled
northward and engulf the Hawaiian Islands as a surface trough
produces southerly flow. Model PWAT Normalized Anomalies during
this time are suggesting PWAT values upwards of 3 standard
deviations above normal; the first indication that heavy rainfall
may be in the future. However, confidence remains low at this
time, given the long lead time before the event. That said, future
shifts will need to monitor model trends to determine how
accurate this initial assessment proves to be.

AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trades will prevail into Thursday as
strong surface high pressure passes far north of the islands.
Stable conditions will focus clouds and showers across windward
slopes, and an increase in moisture creating MVFR conditions
prompted the issuance of AIRMET Sierra for windward Kauai, Oahu
and Molokai this afternoon. This AIRMET will likely be expanded to
additional islands overnight.

With gusty trades continuing, AIRMET Tango for mechanical
turbulence over and downwind of terrain below 8,000 feet will
remain in effect into Thursday.

MARINE...
A strong surface high centered north of the islands is producing
fresh to strong trade winds across Hawaiian waters this afternoon.
As this high drifts slightly closer to Hawaii over the next day
or so, trades will increase even further, becoming strong to gale
force by tonight into Wednesday. The strong trade winds, combined
with building northeast and northwest swells, will also result in
seas greater than 10 feet across the area. A Gale Warning has
been issued for the Alenuihaha Channel, where flow funneling
through the terrain of Maui and the Big Island will accelerate
trades even more. Elsewhere, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains
in effect for a combination of winds and seas. The high to our
north will gradually drift eastward and weaken Friday, leading to
moderate to fresh trades through this weekend.

The current short to moderate period, north-northeast (020-030
degrees) swell that produced advisory level surf along north and
east facing shores today is shifting to become more northeasterly
(030-050 degrees). As a result, north shore surf has declined
below advisory levels this afternoon, so the High Surf Advisory
has been cancelled for north facing shores. However, large surf
will persist along east facing shores, and the High Surf Advisory
for east facing shores has been extended through Thursday
afternoon. Although the swell direction is shifting more
northeasterly, surges at north facing harbors, mainly Hilo and
Kahului, remain possible through tonight. A Marine Weather
Statement remains in effect to highlight this. Additionally, a
combination of higher than predicted water levels, large breaking
waves, and strong onshore winds could lead to significant wave
runup, beach erosion, and localized coastal flooding for east
facing shores during daily peak high tide cycle. Northeast swell
energy should decline on Thursday as local trade winds begin to
decline, with east shore surf steadily dropping Friday through the
weekend.

A small, long period northwest swell will fill in tonight into
Wednesday, keeping surf along north and some west facing shores
elevated but below advisory levels.

The current small, long period south swell will peak tonight and
then begin to fade by late Wednesday, keeping surf near or
slightly above the November average until it declines Thursday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Olomana-Maui
Windward West-Kauai East-East Honolulu-Koolau Windward-Molokai
Windward-Molokai Southeast-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-Big
Island East-Big Island North.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-
Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui
Central Valley South-South Haleakala-Big Island Southeast-Big
Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel.


&&

$$


UPDATE...PIERCE
DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Vaughan