938
FXHW60 PHFO 051400
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 AM HST Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly cloudy and warm with light to moderate trade winds the
next couple of days. The islands are under a stable weather
pattern as weak ridging remains situated over and east of the
state. Limited showers will be primarily confined to windward
upslope mauka and within higher terrain through Saturday. An area
of enhanced moisture moving through early Sunday will increase
statewide precipitation chances. Primarily windward rainfall will
increase in response to approaching Tropical Cyclone Kiko early
next week. Kiko is forecast to reach our far eastern offshore
waters Monday. There is a fair amount of uncertainly that exists
concerning Kiko`s eventual track, intensity and possible impacts.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The islands remain under the stable influence of an upper ridge
planted over the state with its axis extending east-northeast to
the U.S. mainland. A open wave trough north of the islands will
deepen as an upper low dives south into its base this weekend.
The trough will erode the ridge anchored over the state and
ultimately be the impetus to providing the necessary wind shear
required to weaken Tropical Cyclone Kiko as it tracks north of the
state Monday through Wednesday. This trough will also kill the
trade belt gradient resulting in a few days of very light winds
where daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes will become
more dominant. Any measurable rain will focus along windward
exposures and upslope mauka today and tomorrow. Early morning
shortwave IR satellite imagery is depicting a nice clustering of
low topped moist clouds to the east of the island chain that will
pass over the state the next few hours. This will increase morning
shower activity over Big Island`s windward Hamakua, Hilo and Puna
regions as well as across East Maui. After a couple of days of
this continued relatively dry and warm summer weather, lighter
winds in tandem with a higher slug of mid layer moisture Sunday
will produce a muggy start to next week. Rain chances will also
increase across most of the state Sunday morning as this mid layer
moisture rides in on light trades.

Tropical Cyclone Kiko is moving west at around 10 mph and is
forecast to move into our eastern offshore waters, or pass 150W,
late Monday. The track of Kiko will be determined by the drier
Central Pacific environment it will be moving into the next couple
of days as well as its interaction with increasing southwesterly
shear brought on by the aforementioned trough north of Hawaii. The
official forecast track of TC Kiko has it passing just north of
the Hawaiian Islands as a weakening tropical storm Monday through
Wednesday. Due to the uncertainly of Kiko`s intensity and track
as it interacts with the upper low early next week, the messaging
for the state is still centered on the potential for greater areal
rain or more frequent shower behavior from Monday through early
Thursday. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands and surrounding waters
need to closely monitor Kiko`s official forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR for the majority of the terminals. Light to moderate trade
winds will prevail across the Hawaiian Islands. Trades will weaken
this weekend as Tropical Cyclone Kiko approaches the area from
the southeast. Brief periods of nocturnal low clouds and
occasional showers will focus along windward exposures and higher
terrain. MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities are possible within
more organized, moderate-in-intensity showers.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect.


&&

.MARINE...

Weak surface ridging just north of the state will continue to
produce moderate trades through tonight. A weak trough is
expected to develop just north of the islands this weekend and
cause trade winds to ease into the gentle to moderate range with
localized sea breezes.

Hurricane Kiko, approximately 1100 NM ESE of Hilo, continues to
track west northwest in the Eastern Pacific. The latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center has Kiko possibly entering our
coastal waters, as a tropical storm, north of the Big Island or
Maui County on Tuesday. Keep a close eye on the future National
Hurricane Center forecast track updates as the system approaches.

A small, short period, northwest swell will bring small surf to
north facing shores through this weekend. In the extended
forecast, additional small northwest swells from distant north
pacific disturbances will continue to generate rounds of small
surf along north facing shores through mid- next week. Expect a
bump in surf along south facing shores to near or slightly above
seasonal normals Saturday through early next week as a small to
moderate, long period, south southwest swell fills in.

Surf along east facing shores will steadily rise Sunday through
early next week as swell energy from Tropical Cyclone Kiko arrives.
The surf may approach High Surf Advisory Criteria as early as Monday
and possibly breach High Surf Warning levels Tuesday. However, surf
heights will be highly depended on the track and intensity of Kiko as
it nears the state.

Peak monthly high tides, combined with water levels running
higher than predicted, may lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. A Coastal Flood
Statement remains in effect through Sunday afternoon.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire conditions will remain elevated, but remain below critical
thresholds, within this dry summertime trade wind weather pattern.
Afternoon humidities will briefly fall into the upper 30s to middle
40s under dry, warm conditions. Winds will remain below critical
fire weather thresholds with light winds forecast through Sunday.
Limited rainfall will occur the next couple of days but humidity
should generally begin increasing Sunday and Monday. Rain may
likely increase in coverage and intensity over many windward
exposures early to mid next week as TC Kiko passes north of the
state.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Blood
AVIATION...Blood
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...Blood