098
FXHW60 PHFO 031335
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
335 AM HST Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front currently moving into Kauai and Niihau this morning
will stall out and weaken near the Kauai Channel from today into
Friday. Expect wet weather across Kauai County during this time
period with some enhanced showers moving into Oahu. Trade winds
will begin to build back into the islands by Friday, strengthening
into the moderate to breezy range from Saturday onward with
periods of enhanced showers lasting through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the forecast this morning. Satellite imagery
shows a rapidly weakening cold frontal cloud band moving into
Kauai and Niihau this morning will produce periods of wet weather
across Kauai County for the next two days. Trade winds will
quickly build in across the region behind the front over Kauai
from morning to afternoon, then spread eastward across the state
on Friday. Light southerly winds east of the front today may
produce brief periods of showers for the other islands today. Vog
will continue to linger over most islands through Friday until
the easterly trade winds begin to push the Volcanic smOG in a more
westward direction away from the islands by Friday night.

The latest short range model solutions continue to show the
forward motion on the front stalling out as the frontal boundary
moves into the Kauai Channel by tonight. Most islands will
continue to see light land and sea breeze weather conditions in
place through today. Northeasterly trade winds will fill in
across the front over Kauai later today, enhancing showers over
north and east slopes of the Garden Isle, and to some degree over
Oahu with this approaching frontal system. The frontal band will
then weaken over the Kauai Channel as easterly trade winds spread
across the state on Friday. Easterly trade winds will then push
the cloud band associated with the remnant cold front will then
drift westward back over Kauai and Niihau from late Friday into
Saturday. More typical trade wind weather remains in the forecast
for the rest of the state through the weekend.

The forecast next week shows a high confidence easterly trade
wind weather pattern continues with a period of enhanced showers
from a cloud band moving in from the north. This cloud band is
associated with the remnants of a dissipated frontal band
originating in the eastern Pacific. Enhanced shower activity will
favor windward and mountain areas during the Tuesday morning
through Friday morning time period. Higher chances for showers
are likely over windward and mountain slopes during the typical
overnight to early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
A frontal boundary approaching from the northwest will become
cause winds to become light and variable over the state today. An
uptick of showers over the western end of the state is expected
today as moisture streams in from the south ahead of the front.
Periods of MVFR are likely within the heavier showers. The eastern
half of the state will see moderate to locally breezy
southeasterly winds continue, with localized sea breezes in
sheltered areas. Conditions should remain mostly VFR.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

All areas will continue to see some Vog due to the ongoing eruption
of Kilauea. However, Vog is not expected to impact visibilities
enough to warrant a mention in any TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
A slow moving and weakening cold front will push through Kauai
today before stalling and dissipating over the Kauai channel.
Light to moderate southerly winds will hold ahead of the front
with moderate northerly winds filling in behind the front. Moderate
to locally strong trade winds will reestablish themselves Friday
into Saturday and persist into the coming week. Small Craft
Advisory conditions may return first for the western half of the
state as early as Friday around Kauai then for the rest of the
state over the weekend as strong trades winds return and seas
build to 10 feet or greater due to moderate and a large north
swells.

Surf along north and west facing shores will start out small then
gradually build later today into Friday as a small to moderate
medium period north northwest swell (330-340) fills. The swell
will continue to build Friday generating surf near to just below
advisory level along north and west facing shores. A large to
extra large, long period swell (350-360) will quickly build in
Saturday that will likely produce warning level surf along north
facing shores with advisory level surf across west and east facing
shores through the weekend. This swell, aside from being
hazardous to small craft, could generate harbor surges along north
facing bays and inlets.

Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny into the weekend
with mainly background energy dominating. A small, long period
south swell may fill in later over the weekend into early next
week and provide a small boost to surf along south facing shores.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through today,
but will gradually build Friday over the weekend with the return
of trade wind flow over and upstream of the state and from the
larger northerly swells wrapping into exposed areas.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Almanza