230
FXHW60 PHFO 081301
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
301 AM HST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A band of low clouds and showers will keep showery conditions in
place as it shifts slowly westward through the smaller islands
today through early Saturday. From Saturday afternoon through
late next week, fairly typical trade wind weather will prevail
with bands of low clouds and showers occasionally moving through
the islands. The showers will favor windward slopes and coasts,
particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a
few showers reaching leeward areas at times as well. Breezy trades
will continue through the period with only minor day to day
fluctuations in strength.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1026 mb high is centered around 700
miles northwest of Kauai, with the remnants of an old front
draped across Maui County. The gradient remains tight early this
morning, with moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place.
Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy
conditions across the state, with cloud coverage the highest over
windward and mauka areas. Radar imagery numerous showers over
windward sections of Oahu and Maui County, along with quite a bit
of leeward spillover. Shower coverage is not as great on either
side of the washed out front, with scattered showers mostly
limited to windward sections of Kauai and the Big Island. Main
short term focus revolves around rain chances during the nest
couple days.

High pressure northwest of the state will shift northeast during
the next couple days, eventually merging with a new building high
to the distant northeast of the islands by the end of the weekend.
Breezy trade winds will prevail through the weekend, with perhaps
a slight easing in speeds as the weekend progresses. The trades
may ease a bit more into the moderate to locally breezy range
early next week as a front approaches and stalls out north of the
state. A new strong high building north of this front could ramp
the trades back up to breezy and locally windy levels again
Wednesday through late next week.

As for the remaining weather details, the band of moisture
associated with the old front will linger over Maui County and
Oahu this morning, keeping showery conditions in place,
particularly over windward and mauka areas. The moisture band is
then expected to shift west this afternoon, with some decrease in
showers expected for Maui County, an increase in showers for
Kauai, and a continuation of showery weather for Oahu. Tonight
into Saturday morning, the band appears to focus further west
over Kauai, with a return to a more typical trade wind pattern
expected over the remainder of the state. From Saturday afternoon
onward, fairly typical trade wind weather will prevail with bands
of low clouds and showers occasionally moving through the islands
with the trades. Showers will favor windward slopes and coasts,
particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a
few showers reaching leeward areas at times as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
The remnants of an old front will continue to spread low clouds
and showers across the Hawaiian Islands, mainly over Oahu and the
islands in Maui County. Periods of low clouds and showers with
MVFR conditions will continue this morning for Oahu, Molokai,
Lanai and Maui, mainly over the north through east sections of
each island. These unstable weather conditions will linger into
Friday morning with improving trends for these islands from late
morning to afternoon. Additional low clouds and showers with
periods of MVFR conditions will drift into Kauai by this
afternoon, mainly over the north and east sections of the island.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for
Oahu, Molokai, Lanai,and Maui. These conditions will improve for
these islands a few hours after sunrise. Another mountain
obscuration may be needed for Kauai from the afternoon into the
evening hours.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect due to low-level turbulence over
and downwind of terrain, with satellite indicating an abundance of
low-level wave clouds extending well SW of the islands. A sharp
upper trough near Maui will produce moderate turbulence between
FL250 and FL350, likely continuing overnight hours as the trough
stalls and become E-W oriented over the area. This upper level
turbulence area will diminish later this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the northwest of the state will gradually shift
to the north. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
indefinitely. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for Hawaiian coastal
waters has been extended through Sunday afternoon. Trade winds
are expected to drop below SCA criteria over the western waters
Saturday morning, but continue over the typically windy waters
around Maui and the Big Island through Sunday afternoon and
possibly beyond.

The current medium period NW (310-330) swell will gradually
decline over the next couple days, but a new reinforcing moderate
long period NW (320-340) swell will build in later today, peak on
Saturday, then gradually diminish as well. Surf along north and
west facing shores will thus remain elevated through most of the
weekend.

The first half of next week will then feature a moderate long
period NW (320) swell that will peak Monday into Monday night only
to be quickly followed by a borderline large NW (320) long period
swell, the forerunners of which should begin arriving late
Tuesday. This latter swell will likely elevate surf to the High
Surf Advisory threshold for N and W facing shores on Wednesday.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain elevated and choppy
through the middle of next week due to the strong trade winds.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small and near the
seasonal average through the middle of next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Leeward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Bedal