935
FXHW60 PHFO 052006
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1006 AM HST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance moving through the area will bring an increase of
showers through Thursday across the state. The focus of the
showers will likely be over interior and leeward areas during the
afternoon and windward areas at night. Light easterly winds will
persist through Thursday with moderate trade winds returning
Friday. A drier air mass will move in Friday with fair weather
conditions expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning`s satellite imagery shows scattered showers over
select windward areas, but most of the shower activity seems to be
offshore. Winds have decreased significantly from yesterday with
mainly a light trade wind flow seen on the morning observations.
The light easterly wind should give way to sea breezes especially
over leeward areas today which should allow for afternoon clouds
and showers over interior and leeward areas.

Although typically we should see the afternoon clouds and showers
decrease as the sun sets, but today we have an approaching short-
wave trough that will likely reinforce showers this evening and
tonight. By late tonight into Thursday morning, we should
generally see the shower activity drift offshore as land breezes
develop. But overall, we should see increased shower activity this
evening and tonight. Some brief periods of light to moderate
rainfall will be possible especially windward areas tonight.

Starting Friday, an upper level ridge will build overhead and a
surface high will build northeast of the state. A ridge extending
from the parent high will fluctuate just north of the state into
early next week. This should allow for stable trade wind weather
to return and push any remaining moisture west of the state.
Overall, it looks like a dry trade wind pattern Friday through
Saturday. Depending how close the ridge approaches the state,
winds may shift slightly out of the east southeast and become
light around Kauai and possibly Oahu, bringing back chances for
land/seabreeze pattern.


&&

.AVIATION...
Light easterly winds will prevail through tonight, allowing
localized sea and land breezes to be common across the state. An
area of enhanced moisture will keep some showers and MVFR
cigs/vsbys moving into windward areas of Oahu, Molokai and Maui
this morning, with improving conditions expected in most areas by
late morning or early afternoon. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect
for mountain obscurations above 2500 feet for windward sections of
Oahu, Molokai, and Maui.

AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate turbulence between
FL270 and FL350 over the Big Island. This area of turbulence on
the back end of the upper level jet will move eastward amd be out
of the area by the end of today.


&&

.MARINE...
Persistent high pressure to the NW will dissipate today as an
assoicated weak ridge moves just N of Kauai. The ridge will remain
nearly stationary Thursday, then move N and strengthen from
Friday into the weekend. Recent N winds will diminish and become
light and variable through Thursday, with moderate to locally
fresh trade winds favoring an E-ESE direction as they strengthen
over the weekend.

Combined seas near 10 feet continue to warrant a Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) in most windward zones today, and this may need to
be extended as seas will be slow to diminish over the next 24
hours. Thereafter, seas may again reach SCA criteria over the
weekend in exposed zones, with E winds potentially reaching
criteria over the weekend in zones around Maui and the Big Island.

Recent NE swell will receive another pulse of mid-period (~12-14
seconds) reinforcement from 040 degrees tonight and Thursday,
then gradually diminish Friday/Saturday. A High Surf Advisory
(HSA) for E facing shores will likely need to be extended from
its current expiration time of 6 pm this evening. Peak surf
heights will likely approach but remain below the 15 foot HSA
criteria for N facing shores. A small NW swell will gradually
diminish through Thursday. A new long-period NW swell is expected
to arrive late Thursday and peak Friday, with peak surf heights
approaching HSA-level heights along N and W facing shores. A
similarly-sized NW swell is expected from Saturday night into
Monday, with a potentially larger WNW swell from late Tuesday into
Thursday.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Olomana-Kauai
North-Kauai East-East Honolulu-Koolau Windward-Molokai Windward-
Molokai Southeast-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-Big Island East-
Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu
Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Birchard