281
FXHW60 PHFO 040129
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
329 PM HST Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dissipating front currently just south of Kauai will stall out
and weaken near the Kauai Channel tonight into Friday. Expect
continued wet weather across Kauai County during this time, with
some showers moving into Oahu as well. Trade winds will begin to
build back into the islands by Friday, strengthening into the
moderate to breezy range from Saturday onward, with periods of
enhanced showers lasting through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No major changes to the forecast this afternoon, mainly just small
tweaks to the short term winds and PoPs. Satellite and radar imagery
show a weakening frontal cloud band draped over the western end of
the state, with scattered showers over Kauai, Oahu, and the Kauai
Channel. Much of the activity on Kauai has been focused along the
northern and western slopes and coastal areas, with several spots
coming in at 1 to 3 inches of rain in the past 12 hours. This frontal
band will continue to produce periods of wet weather across Kauai
County and Oahu for the next couple of days as the front itself stalls
and dissipates over the Kauai Channel. Most islands will continue to
see light land and sea breeze conditions through tonight.

Northeasterly trade winds will quickly build in behind the front over
Kauai this evening and tonight, shifting the focus of enhanced showers
to north and east slopes of the Garden Isle. Trade winds will then
spread eastward across the rest of the state and increase to moderate
to breezy speeds on Friday as the frontal band dissipates. The remnants
of the front will be pushed westward back over Kauai County late Friday
into the weekend, continuing the wet weather over the western end of
the state. The forecast shifts to more typical trade wind weather for
the rest of the state through the weekend, albeit a bit wetter than
usual. Vog will continue to linger over most islands through much of
Friday until the easterly trade winds begin to push the Vog cloud in
a more westward direction away from the islands by Friday night.

High confidence exists in the forecast for next week, with global models
showing an extended period of easterly trade winds, with periods of
enhanced showers through much of next week. As is typical with trade
wind showers, the greatest shower chances and coverage will occur over
windward and mountain slopes during the typical overnight to early
morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
A dissipating front over Kauai will stall with northeasterly trade
winds strengthening behind it. Enhanced clouds and showers over the
western end of the state is expected through tonight as moisture
lingers along the front. Periods of MVFR are likely within the heavier
showers, mostly for the western end of the state. The eastern half
of the state will see moderate to locally breezy southeasterly winds
continue, with localized land breezes in sheltered areas and overall
prevailing VFR conditions. Winds should then transition tonight into
tomorrow to a more typical northeasterly direction as the front
dissipates.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all of Kauai and Oahu.
This could continue tonight as clouds and showers linger. AIRMET
Tango is in effect for tempo moderate upper level turbulence and
is expected to continue through the night.

Most areas could continue to see some Vog due to the ongoing eruption
of Kilauea. However, Vog is not expected to impact visibilities enough
to warrant a mention in any TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
A slow moving and weakening cold front will stall over the Kauai
Channel tonight then dissipate by Friday evening. Moderate north
to northeast winds behind the front will persist. Light to moderate
south to southeasterly winds ahead of the front will shift to northeast
on Friday. Moderate to locally strong trade winds will become fully
reestablished over the Islands by Saturday afternoon and continue
into the coming week.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected statewide this weekend
due to the arrival of both blustery trade winds and a large north
swell. Conditions could develop over the western end of the state
as early as Friday afternoon.

Surf along north and west facing shores will remain small this evening,
but gradually build overnight due to a medium period north northwest
swell (330-350). This swell is expected to produce advisory or near
advisory level surf Friday and Friday night. On Saturday, a large to
extra large, long period swell (350-360) will quickly build in and
produce warning level surf along north facing shores with advisory
level surf across west and east facing shores that will continue
through the weekend. This swell, aside from being hazardous to small
craft, could generate harbor surges along north facing bays and inlets.

Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny into the weekend with
mainly background energy dominating. A small, long period south swell
could fill in later over the weekend into early next week and provide
a small boost to surf along south facing shores.

Surf along east facing shores will gradually build Friday and Saturday
with the return of trade wind flow over and upstream of the state and
also from the larger northerly swells wrapping into exposed areas.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Bedal