Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Versions:
1
485
FNUS71 KGYX 071245
FWSGYX
Spot Forecast for Appletown Cultural Burn...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Gray ME
745 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on November 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (207) 688-3224, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
Skies will be partly to mostly sunny today with decreasing
relative humidity this afternoon as mixing increases behind a cold
front. Westerly winds this morning will become northwesterly
later today with gusts up to around 25 mph likely through early
evening as relative humidity falls into the upper 40s to lower 50s
percent range. Moderate to strong humidity recovery is expected
tonight with northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph. Friday will feature
another breezy afternoon with northwesterly wind gusts up to 35
mph possible and relative humidity into the lower 40s percent
range. No wetting rainfall is expected at the burn site through
the period.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Dewpoint............44 decreasing to 34.
Max apparent temp...58.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (84500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................53 increasing to 62 early in the afternoon,
then increasing to 77 late in the afternoon
decreasing to 12 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
for large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60 60 34 34 34 34 34 34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............58 58 58 58 56 54 52 50
Dewpoint........46 44 43 41 39 37 35 34
RH..............64 59 57 53 53 52 52 54
Aparnt tmp (F)..58 58 58 58 56 54 52 47
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..9 12 12 12 12 10 9 8
20 FT wind gust.17 22 22 22 22 20 17 16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.5 1.3 0.6
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.15 21 23 23 23 22 17 15
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
ADI.............54 51 66 62 58 77 13 11
Haines index....4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..36 71 85 84 83 66 20 7
Ventrate Cat....PR GD GD GD GD GD PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Dewpoint............32.
Min apparent temp...32.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest
around 5 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 14 mph becoming 9 to 12 mph after 3
am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
for large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5 5 5 5 5 5 9 9 9 9 9 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............48 46 43 42 39 39 38 38 38 37 37 37
Dewpoint........33 32 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 31
RH..............56 58 67 70 76 76 79 79 79 82 79 79
Aparnt tmp (F)..45 43 38 38 34 34 34 34 34 32 32 32
20 FT wind dir..NW W W W W W W W W SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..7 6 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.14 12 16 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.NW NW W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.14 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 8 9 12 12
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ADI.............7 6 8 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5
Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 5
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Dewpoint............34 increasing to 37 in the late morning and
afternoon.
Min apparent temp...30.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to around 29
mph decreasing to around 8 mph with gusts to
around 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 21 mph increasing to west 25 to
31 mph late in the morning, then decreasing to
16 to 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (84300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to good (37300 knot-ft)
early in the morning increasing to excellent
(135000 knot-ft) in the afternoon in the
afternoon, then decreasing to fair (29000
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3 in the morning.
ADI.................8 increasing to 69.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21 21 21 21 21 21 39 39 39 39 39 39
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............36 38 42 46 49 53 55 55 55 54 52 49
Dewpoint........32 34 36 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 37 36
RH..............85 85 79 71 66 57 53 53 53 54 56 61
Aparnt tmp (F)..30 33 37 41 44 53 55 55 55 54 52 45
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..7 7 8 10 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 10
20 FT wind gust.14 15 21 25 26 26 28 29 28 26 24 25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 3.8 4.7 5.2 4.6 3.4 2.3 2.0
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.13 14 17 18 21 25 26 30 31 25 18 16
LVORI...........5 4 3 3 1 1 1 M M M M M
ADI.............6 10 25 47 48 59 69 M M M M M
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 6 15 28 50 84 108 135 123 77 37 29
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR GD VGD VGD VGD GD PR PR
$$
Forecaster...TUBBS
Requested by...John Bailey
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2425934.0/GYX
.DELDT 11/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jbailey@tnc.org