712
FXUS61 KGYX 141924
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
324 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to drift east of New England through
the week. The weekend will feature a slow moving low pressure
system that will increase rain chances. It does not look like a
washout at this time, but showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day beginning around Friday. The system slowly
moves through during the weekend, and likely still lingers
nearby early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Wedged between departing high pressure and slowly northward
drifting upper low it has been a pretty nice day out there. Sea
breeze will begin its march inland late this afternoon...aided
by return flow promoting onshore winds. This is going to lead to
a quick drop in temps near the coast...especially just after
sunset.

Moist advection will also continue overnight...with low 60s
dewpoints already encroaching on the Great South Channel
entrance to the Gulf of ME. Satellite RGB products already
indicate some low cloudiness forming in the basin and that is
generally expected to expand overnight. Hi-res guidance has a
good signal for a low cloud bank moving inland between 10 pm and
midnight...with some fog developing near the immediate
coastline. I added this to the forecast using HRRR and MPAS
trends.

A decaying band of showers will also be lifting north tonight.
Aside from some slight chance to chance PoP this should be
pretty low impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers continue to dissipate...but will remain a small
possibility thru Thu. Widely scattered to isolated showers will
be most likely during the afternoon diurnal max in heating.

The early cloud cover and onshore winds will once again have the
coolest temps near the coast and warmest across the CT River
Valley and north of the notches.

While the threat of showers go away Thu night...we will keep the
onshore winds and moist advection. I anticipate that fog/stratus
will move back inland Thu night and probably be more expansive
than tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Points:
-Warmer day expected Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible
across the interior Friday evening.

-An low arrives Friday night, with a mostly showery/rainy
 weekend ahead.

-Best chance of widespread rain and thunderstorms should be
 Saturday afternoon/evening.

-Showery and unsettled weather continues through most of next week.

Details:
An upper-level ridge, light winds, and breaks in the clouds
tomorrow should allow for temperatures to rise quickly Friday
morning. The quick rise in temperatures may destabilize the
atmosphere, with a possibility to see showers and thunderstorms
Friday evening. An upper-level low moves in Friday night, likely
bringing many rounds of showers and storms.

Cooler temperatures are likely over the weekend as dense cloud cover
associated with showers and storms persist over northern New
England. Though this weekend is looking more wet than dry for most,
confidence is higher to see steadier rain and thunderstorms
across NH and western ME Saturday afternoon, with locations
north of the mountains getting more widespread light rain
through the day Sunday as well.

Showery conditions may kick off the next work week, with mostly
cool and wet conditions likely continuing through the remainder
of the week. The aforementioned upper-level low will exit the
area by Monday evening, and should be followed by another
system later on next week. At this time, the lowest chances for
showers next week looks to be Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread VFR conditions currently. The main
concern tonight will be development of marine fog and low
stratus. Prior to midnight hi-res guidance develops a low cloud
deck that is forecast to expand inland thru the overnight. Areas
of IFR are most likely at the coast...but may extend as far
west as MHT and CON. Confidence is too low there to have
prevailing in the TAF just yet. Low VIS is fog is also possible
near the immediate coast as hi-res guidance confines it to
coastal zones. Clouds will mix out Thu but marine layer will
linger just offshore...ready to come back in Fri
afternoon/evening. So VFR conditions during the day are expected
to fall back to areas of IFR again Thu night...with the
exception of LEB and HIE being far enough inland.

Long Term...
VFR expected Friday morning, as marine fog mixes out along the
coastal plain. Restrictions may lower with thunderstorms,
showers and steady Friday afternoon through the weekend.
Unsettled weather may keep restrictions down at least
intermittently through most of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds. Areas of fog are also expected to develop late this
evening as moisture advection continues over the Gulf of ME.
Areas of fog will linger over the waters thru Fri.

Long Term...
Light southerly winds and 2-3ft seas are expected Friday.
Saturday morning, winds shift to southeasterlies and strengthen
to 10-15kts by the end of the day. Winds shift to
southwesterlies by Sunday morning, with 7-12kt winds expected.
2-3 ft seas are expected through early next week.


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Palmer