423
FXUS61 KGYX 230950
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
550 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High surf and dangerous rip currents continue today. High
pressure will provide fair weather today and much of Sunday. A
slow moving front will approach from the Great Lakes Sunday with
showers becoming likely Sunday night through Monday. An upper
trough will remain over the Northeast through much of next week
favoring below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
545am Update...Just minor updates to keep morning temperatures
on track. Valley fog again limited to the CT Valley and some
northern NH/western ME valleys this morning.

Previous Discussion...
Continued sunny and dry today, but with southerly winds. The
region resides in a lull between broad upper low pressure across
western Ontario and high pressure exiting east. Daytime highs
again push into the mid 80s, with 70s along the immediate coast.
The southerly winds will aid in increasing RH values today vs.
Friday, but to little relief of prevailing dry conditions.
Windier days combined with the very dry trend will create
elevated fire weather conditions. More info on this in the Fire
Weather section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Swell and wave heights remain such that dangerous rip currents
  likely continue through at least Sunday evening.

Gust factor decreases tonight with less mixing. There is enough
wind in the low levels to keep stronger sfc inversion at bay
however. So think we keep a wind overnight but not as frequent
or strong gusts as daytime. Weak LLJ develops overhead tonight,
and this may be responsible for stronger winds on the ridges
and elevations above 1500 to 2000ft. Steadier wind overnight
should limit fog development, and have kept valley fog out of
the forecast tonight.

Sunday, SW moisture advection continues as does the jet aligned
along the ME coast. Breezier day on tap with this feature more
well defined and added return flow from departing high pressure.
With the low to the west well occluded, incoming cold front is
slow and will take much of the day to work close enough to bring
shower mention into the forecast. Continued to keep slow
progression of PoPs eastward through the afternoon, but all but
the mountains and foothills remain in a mostly dry state for
the day. This brings another possible window for Fire Weather
concerns Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LT Update... A cold front will move across the CWA Sunday night
into Monday, bringing our best potential for widespread
rainfall of the forecast period. A weak sub-tropical low may
develop along a secondary frontal boundary and move
northeastward on Monday but current guidance continues to
indicate that most of the rainfall from this will likely remain
east over the waters. Rain chances will then diminish Monday
night into Tuesday but a few wrap-around showers are possible
across the higher terrain and far north. Trofing then looks to
persist through much of the remainder of the week with
temperatures a little below avg and little in the way of
additional rain chances.

Key Message: Better chance for rain for at least part of the
forecast area is coming early next week. Then cooler than
average temps.

Impacts: For areas that miss rainfall that will serve to deepen
the rainfall deficits.

Forecast Details: The focus thru the extended was mainly on
precip chances given the expanding drought across the forecast
area. Starting around midweek there is good ensemble support for
cooler than average temps...but the NBM guidance had a pretty
good handle on mild days and cool nights so I did not make any
changes.

The better chance for rain will be Mon into Tue when upper jet
streak begins to increase over the Canadian Maritimes. The right
entrance region will be located nearby...most likely over the
northern parts of the forecast area. With forcing for
ascent...the low level moisture axis thru the area...and mid
level ridging poking into the region there are some ingredients
that look very much like a PRE without the real tropical system.
However with the low moving northeast it may very much act like
it and allow some of that moisture to be entrained into the
front and actually bring an appreciable rainfall to parts of the
area. Unfortunately it does look like there will be some areas
that area missed almost entirely by this event...and at least
parts of the area should increase the rainfall deficits.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR through this evening. Southerly breeze
increases today with some gusts around 15 to 20 kt. Overnight
gust factor drops, but light breeze remains. Weak LLJ will bring
some 30 to 35 kt winds across the forecast area this evening and
overnight. Depending on sfc winds, this may result in light LLWS
late evening through early Sunday morning. MVFR stratus may also
be building into southern NH into Sunday morning. Southerly
gusts to 25 kt possible Sun.

Long Term...Largely VFR conditions expected in the extended.
Will have to watch Mon into Tue as the front crosses the
forecast area and offshore moisture tries to work in. Areas of
MVFR are possible...and local IFR cannot be ruled out especially
along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Elevated seas from Erin will continue SCA
conditions through Sunday. Increasing southerly winds today,
with gusts to around 25 kts through tonight. Swell will be
slowly diminishing through Sunday. A cold front nears the waters
Sunday evening.

Long Term...The swell from passing offshore low will arrive
midweek...but 5 ft seas look to be accompanied by long periods
and the small craft hazard is low outside of shoaling areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry fuels from ongoing drought and little recent rainfall
will combine with steadily increasing winds today and Sunday to
create elevated fire weather conditions. While RH values won`t
be as low as Friday, this will have little impact on already dry
surface fuels.

Southerly winds increase this morning with sustained winds
around 12 mph along the coast and interior. Gusts up to 25 mph
will be possible through early evening as mixing depth increases
to around 850mb this afternoon for much of the interior zones.
Deep mixing subsides this evening reducing gust factor, but
background winds remain breezy overnight around 10 mph. Building
low level jet tonight may also bring elevations of around
1500/2000` and higher some gusts to 35 mph.

As daytime mixing initiates once again Sunday, this jet will be
accessible for much of the forecast area, moreso along the
coast and interior of southern ME. Southerly gusts around 30 mph
will be possible in the afternoon.

The chance for showers will slowly be increasing for the
mountains and foothills Sunday, but confidence is low on
coverage and how much relief will be felt during the day. Better
chances for rain arrive overnight through Monday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Legro/Tubbs