072
FXUS61 KGYX 050830
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
330 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses through New England late today. A fast
moving low pressure system brings accumulating snowfall on
Thursday, ending as a wintry mix south of the mountains. A
drying and cooling trend follows Friday into Saturday with high
pressure returning. Another storm likely brings another round
of snow and possibly a mix Saturday night and Sunday. High
pressure returns for the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A seasonably cold and mostly sunny day is in store for today as
high pressure continues to build in from the west. A few
upslope clouds linger north of the mountains through at least
the morning, with mainly sunny skies south of the mountains.
Highs struggle to make it out of the single digits north of the
mountains, while low to mid 20s are expected south of the
mountains. A northwesterly breeze lingers today, but won`t be
nearly as gusty as winds were yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Temperatures quickly fall this evening as winds become light
and clear skies linger. High clouds begin to filter in by the
mid to late evening, but low are still expected to fall below
zero across northern areas, as well as in more sheltered valleys
through the mountains and foothills. Clouds then steadily
thicken through the overnight hours as our next storm system
approaches.

During the day on Thursday, low pressure moves through the
Great Lakes and southern Canada, while a second weak low
pressure center develops off the DelMarVa, and moves through the
Gulf of Maine late Thursday. This brings another round of
snowfall to the area on Thursday, as well as a little bit of a
wintry mix.

Snow is expected to quickly overspread the area from southwest
to northeast through the morning hours, beginning across
southern and western New Hampshire by the mid morning hours,
late morning through southern and western Maine during the late
morning, and into central Maine and the MidCoast by the early
afternoon. The snow lasts through the daytime, and then the
system is likely to end as a bit of freezing drizzle during the
evening hours on Thursday once the snow comes to and end. There
is also the chance for a little bit of plain rain to mix in
right along the coastal near the end of the event, but only
after most of the precipitation has already fallen as snow. A
general 3-5 inches of snow is expected across most of the area,
with some slightly lower amounts north of the mountains where a
bit of downsloping conditions lessens the available moisture.

With the parent low passing to the northwest of New England and
the secondary low developing offshore, warm air aloft manages
to work in near the end of the storm, while the secondary low
helps keep the cold air locked in at the surface. The only
exception may be right along coastline where warm air may be
able to push temps just above freezing for a couple of hours
near the end of the storm, but even this is in question as the
cold air often has a tendency to hold longer than modeling can
resolve along the coast. Once the snow comes to an end, low
level moisture profiles support freezing drizzle through the
evening on Thursday before drier air arrives later in the
overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long Term Update...Timing for departure of overunning snow
event is still on track Thursday evening. With the loss of cloud
ice, think there is a good chance drizzle or freezing drizzle
lags behind as main precip shield carries north. This was
described earlier, and have continued mention of freezing precip
here. Don`t believe significant amounts are likely as moisture
depth quickly wanes behind the stratiform precip. Followed some
Canadian guidance for upslope snow showers in the mountains
continuing Friday.

Guidance is in good agreement for the next system this weekend,
and have raised PoPs to go along with this. Thing to watch as
this event nears the mid to near term later is where banding may
develop to possibly enhance snowfall. For now the fgen band
appears to progress north, but if the storm takes a flatter
track, this may linger or pivot a bit longer. Overall, ensembles
show good confidence in another measurable snow event, but
amounts will need refinement over the coming days.

Previous Discussion...

Low pressure will track just north of the Great Lakes on
Thursday while another secondary area of low pressure attempts
for form over the southern New England coastline. 12Z models and
ensemble solutions suggest a slight colder solution with the
evolution of a coastal low. However, some drizzle and freezing
drizzle remains possible near the end of the event as the
precipitation winds down late on Thursday.

In any case a few inches of snow followed by a glaze of ice in
some areas can be expected by Thursday evening.

Bright sunshine with downsloping westerly winds can be expected
on Friday with more clouds hung up in the mountains.
Temperatures will be above normal despite the ongoing cold air
advection.

Model consensus suggests low pressure will exit the Ohio River
Valley on Saturday. This system will have more moisture
associated with it than Thursday system. Snow will enter the
region late Saturday night as the surface low tracks up the
Saint Lawrence River Valley. A secondary area of low pressure
will form along the southern New England coastline once again.
Some warm air may make it into southern portions of the forecast
area before the system ends during the day on Sunday. Cool,
Canadian high pressure will then build towards our region to end
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions prevail through tonight,
except at HIE and LEB where some marginal MVFR ceilings are
possible at times through mid morning today. Conditions quickly
fall to IFR and LIFR tomorrow morning as snow arrives from
southwest to northeast, arriving last at AUG and RKD by midday.
Snow ends during the evening hours on Thursday, but freezing
drizzle is likely with IFR to LIFR ceilings through the evening
once the snow ends.

Long Term...Clouds thicken and lower with IFR conditions likely
Thursday as snow to a mix overspreads the area. Accumulating
snow is likely at all TAF sites with southern sites seeing snow
change to a mix. VFR likely returns Friday into Saturday.
Another system enters the region with wintry precipitation
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions persist through midday today across
the outer waters, with moderate freezing spray east of Cape
Elizabeth through midday as well. A period of fair conditions is
expected this evening and into the overnight as high pressure
passes through the Gulf of Maine. SCA conditions likely return
for at least the outer waters as low pressure passes west of New
England, and a second low pressure center moves through the
Gulf of Maine late tomorrow.

Long Term...Winds and seas increase Thursday as low pressure
crosses the interior with SCAs likely needed. Offshore winds in
the wake of this system could reach Gale force by Friday
morning.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MEZ008-
     009.
NH...None.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ150>152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cannon/Cornwell