973
FXUS61 KGYX 200253
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1053 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances of showers increase this evening as the cold front
approaches. Northwest winds will gust 35-40 mph on Sunday in the
wake of the cold front. High pressure builds in Sunday night
into Monday. The next chance of showers arrives Monday night
into Tuesday as low pressure approaches New England. High
pressure brings fair and dry conditions through the mid-week
period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM Update... Surface cold front is currently sinking south
over the area with a wind shift behind the front to the west-
northwest. The colder and drier air is lagging behind the front
though with temperatures south of the mountains still well into
the 60s and lower 70s. Given these trends and the relatively
short nights, did bump up forecast lows by a few degrees.
Otherwise, a few scattered showers will remain possible for a
few more hours but the threat for thunder has largely waned.

Previously...
615 PM Update... Much of the region is dry at this hour with the
only real shower activity across portions of northern NH. This
is a little more isolated than previously thought and therefore
made some adjustments to PoPs based on these radar trends and
latest hi- res guidance. The highest chance for a thunderstorm
looks to be within an hour or so either side of 00Z with the
greatest potential across southern NH. Otherwise, just blended
in the latest surface observations at this time.

Previously...
Rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms move
through late this afternoon and into the evening hours. The best
chance for a thunderstorm will be across southern New Hampshire
this evening, where some brief stronger wind gusts are also
possible with the storms. North of these storms, showers are
more likely.

The cold front crosses through tonight, with gusty northwest
winds following behind the front after midnight. Some gusts to
around 40 mph are likely just behind the front, and then more
frequent gusts of 30-35 mph are likely afterwards. Temps also
fall quickly behind the front, with lows dipping to near
freezing across northern areas by morning, with mainly 40s south
of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow looks to be mainly dry, cooler, and gusty. Highs are
likely to only top out around 40 near the Canadian border, with
highs in the mid to upper 50s downwind of the mountains.
Northwesterly wind gusts of 30-35 mph are likely through most of
the day, with some gusts of around 40 mph possible through
central Maine as low pressure deepens across the Canadian
Maritimes.

The combination of gusty winds and dry conditions bring fire
weather concerns for tomorrow, with RH values dropping to near
20 percent across southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine.
Dryness of the fuels remains in question, with that being
influenced by the progression of this evening`s storms.

Winds ease tomorrow evening, with mainly clear skies. High
pressure gradually builds in through the overnight hours,
setting up favorable radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures likely cool into the 20s across northern locations,
with low to mid 30s ranging from the foothills to the
coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1050 PM Update... Little change in the latest NBM suite of
guidance. A return to more seasonable temperatures looks likely
for much of next week along with a few rain chances. The
greatest potential for measurable rainfall currently looks to be
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Previously..The trend at 500 MB across NOAM will be for more
zonal flow next week, although there will still be a couple weak
waves moving through and some variation in temps, but overall,
spring is here and temps are trending upward, with highs more in
the 50s and 60s and some 70s. Chances for rain /and yes, I can
just rain at this point/, will be Mon night into Tuesday and
again late in the week, although both events will lean toward
showery than steady rain.

Sfc Ridge over the CWA Monday will shift E during the day, and
allow for S flow to pick up bringing some warmer air compared to
Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and a fair
amount of sun. The threat of showers comes in Monday night, as
500 MB trough passes just N of of the CWA late Monday night and
Tuesday. Low range from around 40 in the mtns and E zones to the
mid 40s in S NH. Tuesday looks to start showery but should see
any rain move out with some clearing in the afternoon. The
places that do clear and break into warm sector will be in the
low 60s to around 70, mainly the S half of NH and interior SW
ME. In the mtns, and E ME as well as the ME coast highs will
only be in the 50s.

After Tuesday 500 MB zonal flow should support sfc ridging right
through Thursday, providing fair day and nights with highs in
the upper 50s and 60s and mins upper 30s to mid 40s. Next chance
of showers is Friday as weak wave moves through the 500 MB zonal
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term... Mainly VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow
night. Some brief showers are possible at CON and MHT this
evening, but PROBs remain low. Gusty northwest winds increase
late tonight, with gusts of 25- 30kt during the daytime
tomorrow. Winds then ease tomorrow night.


Long Term...VFR Monday, with some MVFR-IFR Mon night into
Tuesday morning in showers and low cigs, then VFR through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front crosses the waters tonight. SCA
conditions in southwest winds continue as winds shift to
northwesterly behind the front late tonight. Some gusts to near
gale force are possible across the eastern outer waters on
Sunday. Winds then gradually ease Sunday night.

Long Term...Winds will stay below SCA levels Mon through
Thursday, although could see S winds get close to 25 kt late
Monday into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite cool temps Sun...RH values will be very dry and winds
will be gusty. Dewpoints may fall into the single digits and
result in min RH around 20 percent south of the mountains.
Northwest winds may be sustained in excess of 20 mph and gusting
over 35 mph at times during the day. If showers don`t produce
much wetting rain this evening, that could leave fuels dry for
Sun.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cempa/Tubbs