Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
365 FXUS61 KGYX 121048 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 548 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A persistent northwest flow regime will bring chances for snow showers in the mountains most days while southern areas remain mostly dry into the end of the week. Unsettled weather arrives Sunday, bringing chances for rain and snow. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 530 AM Update: We are still seeing plenty of cloud cover over the region as we remain in mean troughing aloft. We should see warmer temperatures with less wind today, but highs will still be below normal for this time of year. No major changes were needed for this update other than to convert the Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory through noon today. The timing may need to end up being extended depending on how the seas evolve. Previously: A large gyre of a low pressure system will remain over eastern Canada today through Thursday. This will aid in sending another short wave trough across Northern New England today This will result in mostly cloudy skies with a chance of snow showers and flurries, mainly this morning. Winds will turn more southwesterly this afternoon and bring temperatures up to around 40 at many locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Mountain snow showers tonight otherwise most of the rest of the forecast area should remain dry but mostly cloudy with lows in the 20s as broad cyclonic flow continues. Troughing will settle over the region Thursday with plenty of clouds along with intermittent snow showers, especially in the mountains. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s at lower elevations so any early flurries or snow showers will change to rain if it precipitates at all. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Evening Update... An active pattern continues through the end of the week and into the weekend. The most organized system of the next week still looks poised to arrive on Sunday. Models are in good agreement on this system bringing precip on Sunday, but how much and in what form remain in question. Snow, a wintry mix, and rain are all likely to impact northern New England, but where these transition areas end up will be determined by the storm track, which is still in question. More clarity is likely on these factors in the next couple of days Seasonably cold air returns behind this system for early next, with the pattern likely to remain active through at least midweek next week. Full Discussion... An active pattern is expected to continued through the extended forecast, as an upper-level low remains over the Canadian Maritimes. This upper- level pattern should allow for generally cooler temperatures through the weekend and into early next week. A weak shortwave will arrive from the Great Lakes Thursday morning. This disturbance is likely to bring light rain and snow to the area, with most of the snow remaining confined to areas north of the mountains. Precipitation amounts should be small, with a coating of snow expected north of the mountains and a few hundredths of an inch of rain likely elsewhere by Friday. High temperatures on Thursday range between mid-30s in the mountains to upper 40s in the Seacoast. High pressure works in from the west on Friday, remaining overhead on Saturday as well. This will allow for a mostly dry and clear Friday afternoon and Saturday for most. Clouds increase Saturday night as a low moves into the area. On Sunday morning, a more robust low approaches the area from Canada. The low could bring almost any precipitation type, though confidence is higher for snow in the north, with more wintry mix and rain likely across southern New Hampshire and York county. However, uncertainty is still high, with ensembles showing a broad range of storm track solutions that could alter precipitation type and amount outcomes significantly. Right now, generally a half an inch of rain across the area looks plausible, with interior ME and locations north of the White Mountains possibly seeing a few inches of wet snow as well. After the passage of the mentioned low, upslope snow showers are possible early next week with mostly dry conditions elsewhere. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...Upper level low pressure will continue over the region through Thursday. This will mean MVFR cigs in the mountains with mainly VFR cigs at lower elevations with an occasional brief period of MVFR conditions. Occasional snow showers will continue in the mountains and less frequently at lower elevations. Long Term...Lowered restrictions may continue at HIE and LEB and through Saturday morning due to upslope rain and snow showers. Conditions improve to VFR by Thursday evening outside of the mountains. VFR expected outside the mountains on Friday, and expected everywhere Saturday. Lowered restrictions return Sunday morning as winter weather impacts the region. && .MARINE... Short Term...540 AM Update: Gale force winds have diminished and all zones were converted to a SCA until noon. Previously: Wind gusts remain above 20kts through the day today on the ocean waters with gradually subsiding seas. Long Term...Conditions remain below SCA levels through Friday. Some marginal SCA conditions are possible behind a passing front Friday night into Saturday. A developing low pressure system likely crosses the waters on Sunday, with some elevated winds and seas possible, but will be dependent on the track and strength of the system. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster/Hargrove SHORT TERM...Baron/Ekster LONG TERM...Clair/Palmer