071
FXUS61 KGYX 041724
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
124 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep layer ridging will bring warm and dry conditions into next
week with record highs in jeopardy most days through Tuesday A
cold front will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
bringing a period rain to the region. High pressure builds in
from the west behind the front with cooler and drier air moving
in for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm and mostly sunny conditions continue this afternoon as a 500mb
ridge begins to build toward New England. WAA has ushered in a much
warmer airmass with temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s...well
above normal for early October. As of 1 PM, Portland has gotten
to 79 degrees, which is 2 degrees shy of tying a record high.
Record highs for the today and the next few days can be found in
the climate section below.

There will be an increase in high clouds tonight, but I don`t think
it will have much of an effect on cooling as winds remain light.  It
will be warmer than previous nights with the WAA, but I have kept
lows closer to or slightly lower than the cooler guidance with
forecast lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. More valley fog is
expected, especially along the CT River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heights continue to rise as the 500mb ridge expands farther eastward
to be directly on top of New England on Sunday. Needless to say,
this will bring another very warm and dry day with plenty of
sunshine and nearly identical temperatures to those of today.
Some locations away from the coast may even be a degree or two
warmer as 850mb temps come up slightly.

Valley fog will develop in some areas Sunday night with light winds
and clear skies. Visibility probabilities from the SREF also show
some potential for marine fog along the Midcoast, but sometimes
models can bring this in too quickly. Overnight temperatures will be
mild for early October and mostly in the 50s, except upper 40s in
the normally cooler spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layer ridging will continue very warm and dry conditions to
start off the period Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will sweep
across the Northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday likely bringing
widespread light rainfall. High pressure builds in the second half
of the week for fair weather and temperatures averaging below normal.

Surface high pressure will be centered offshore as a mid level ridge
axis slides east into Atlantic Canada. This will allow for deep
layer, warm southwest flow across the area Monday. High
temperature records listed in the Climate Section below will be
in jeopardy both Monday and Tuesday as high climb into the 80s
areawide.

Global models and ensembles are in decent agreement that a cold
front will cross the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There are some residence time differences amongst
solutions as to how quickly the front will clear the area.
Faster FROPA solutions push the front offshore Wednesday morning
with areawide QPF around 0.25 to 0.5 inches. The slower
solutions keep rainfall going into Wednesday afternoon and
advertise QPF amounts around 1.0 to 1.25 inches. The latest NBM
seems to be a good compromise with highest PoPs Tuesday night
and gradually diminishing mid day Wednesday with QPF around 0.5
inches across the north and 1.0 inch across southern areas.

A cooler airmass arrives behind the front Wednesday night and
Thursday with high pressure sliding west to east across the
area Thursday into Friday. This will bring dry weather with
highs ranging from the upper 50s across the north to the 60s
across the south. There will likely be favorable radiational
cooling at night that will allow for lows in the 20s and 30s.
High pressure quickly slides east allowing for moderating
temperatures Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Similar conditions will continue through Sunday
night. VFR during the day with fog possible late tonight into
early Sunday morning and again Sunday night at LEB and HIE. RKD
may see marine fog Sunday night, but confidence is low on this
at the moment.

Long Term...VFR likely prevails Monday into Tuesday although
valley nighttime fog cannot be ruled out. A cold front brings
lowering cigs and rain Tuesday night into Wednesday that could
at least bring periods of MVFR. Conditions improve NW to SE
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions are not expected through Sunday night.
Southerly flow this afternoon will become more light and variable
tonight and early Sunday. Prevailing south to southwest flow then
takes over Sunday afternoon through Sunday night with high pressure
centered to the south and east of the waters.

Long Term...South to southwest flow increases Monday through
Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. SCAs will likely be needed
Tuesday into Wednesday morning as gusts start to exceed 25 kts.
Winds shift out of the north behind the front Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be high enough to possibly challenge records
the next few days as an anomalously strong 580+dam ridge builds
over the area by Monday. Here are some of the records to watch.

                Oct 5       Oct 6       Oct 7
Concord        86(1926)    84(1990)    90(1963)
Manchester     86(2007)    82(2007)    82(2005)
Portland       81(1946)    84(1947)    84(1947)
Augusta        80(2007)    78(1963)    83(1990)

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Combs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Schroeter