270
FXUS61 KGYX 191921
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
321 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings above normal temperatures and sunny
weather through at least Tuesday. Temperatures will be pushing
into the 70s. The next chance of precipitation looks to be
Thursday when a cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Very similar night tonight as compared the the last two nights.
Clear skies, light winds, and good raditational cooling thanks
to nearby high pressure. For tonight`s low`s will go with
persistence as a background grid and then match a MAV/MET blend
to it. Patchy frost possible tonight again, but not widespread
enough in areas where the program is still active. In addition,
river valley fog is likely again, mainly along the mainstems of
NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Another mostly sunny and warm day on tap for Sunday with light
southwesterly flow continuing. Highs reach the 70s at lower
elevations. Lows Sunday night will be a few degrees higher than
the last couple of nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: Dry weather continues through early week as an area
of high pressure moves through. It will remain warm, but well
above normal temperatures retreat Tuesday behind a brief cold
front. These rebound Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold front
passage Thursday. This will also bring the next chance of
showers to the region. For late week, temperatures return to
more seasonable values.

Details: A trough passing through the Canadian Maritimes Monday
will pit much of northern New England in a warm sector. This
SW/W temperature advection will push daytime highs to near
record values for the mid October day, namely at Portland and
Augusta (both 75 degrees set in 1979). Mixing to around 900mb
will also bring some breezy conditions to the surface with
westerly gusts to 25 mph at times. Little in the ways of a sharp
temperature inversion at this height may lead to additional dry
air mixing to the surface. Amid antecedent dry conditions, this
may lead to elevated fire weather conditions.

The passing trough will bring a weak cold front through much of
Maine overnight into Tuesday morning. This breaks up the
stretch of 70 degree temps for much of southern ME, but there
remains some uncertainty how far south it combs into far
southern ME and NH. NBM temps have swung lower into the 60s for
highs Tuesday, but temp difference between the 25th and 75th
percentiles is quite wide at this time range with a 5 to 6
degree temp difference in southern ME. This gap is smaller
across central to southern NH where guidance is currently more
confident in warmer temps holding strong. Thus across the
southern tier of NH counties, another day in the 70s is
possible. Daytime highs dont rebound much across southern ME as
return flow arrives and comes in off the Gulf of Maine waters.

One more dry day Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens w/
incoming trough to the west. Winds likely increase as the
afternoon goes on. However, by the time 30 kt LLJ winds move
overhead in the evening, mixing should be subsiding for the day.
Deepening surface inversion into the overnight will help keep
stronger gusts at bay, but increasing winds will be apparent at
the higher elevations. Showers overspread the area later in the
evening and overnight hours, but rainfall amounts remain on the
light side with low probabilities of exceeding a tenth of an
inch in areas outside of the mountains.

Baroclinic leaf state of cyclogenesis likely underway early
Thursday morning, with surface low developing into the Canadian
Maritimes. Pressure gradient remains tightly packed through the
afternoon as colder air moves in aloft. This sets up the chance
for a blustery Thursday with the NBM mean showing 30 mph gusts.
Should daytime mixing align with strong low level winds Thursday,
NW gusts greater than 30 mph will be possible through the
afternoon.

A return to temperatures closer to normal appears in favor for
late week into the weekend as broad high pressure noses into the
Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR through Sunday night with some river valley fog
possible early in the mornings.

Long Term...VFR with some overnight valley fog causing
restrictions mainly into the CT River Valley through early week.
Next chance of more widespread restrictions seems possible
Wednesday night as ceilings lower amid rain showers. LLWS may
also be a factor during this time period. Strong NW winds may
increase during the day Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Small craft conditions are not expected tonight
through Sunday night.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA conditions as high
pressure remains over the waters. A weak cold front passes over
the Maine coastal waters Monday night. Winds will increase out
of the south Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Ekster