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FXUS61 KGYX 141448 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1048 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to drift east of New England through
the week. The end of the work week into the weekend will
feature a slow moving low pressure system that will increase
rain chances. It does not look like a washout at this time, but
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day beginning
around Friday. The system slowly moves through during the
weekend, and likely still lingers nearby early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous...

High pressure remains centered to the east of New England, and
gradually shifts southward through the day. This sets up a
southerly flow with an increasingly warm and moist airmass
moving in. At the same time, a broad upper level low pressure
system is slowly drifting north through the Mid Atlantic and
spreads increasingly thickening cloud cover from south to north
today.

Light onshore southerly flow keeps the immediate coast cooler
with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s, but temperatures
quickly moderate inland with the light wind speeds. Just about
10 miles back from the coast low 70s are expected, with mid 70s
not much further inland from there. Across southern New
Hampshire, highs likely top out in the mid 70s before the cloud
cover thickens in the afternoon. A stray shower can`t be ruled
out here either before sunset. Further north however, more
sunshine allows temps to warm into the upper 70s to near 80
toward the Canadian border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Moisture continues to increase through the overnight as the
system moves closer. Scattered showers are expected to move from
south to north overnight, gradually weakening and eventually
dissipating as they move north. This brings scattered showers
into southern New Hampshire during the evening hours, and
through the overnight hours for central and northern locations.
Temperatures remain mild through the overnight with the
increasing cloud cover. Along the coastal plain sees the coolest
temperatures as lows drop into the low 50s with patchy fog.
Elsewhere however, temperatures spend much of the night in the
60s, eventually reaching the upper 50s late tonight.

The weak forcing that brings the scattered showers overnight
weakens tomorrow as the airmass continues to moisten. Some
breaks in the clouds and thin spots are likely through the day,
allowing temps to warm into the 60s and 70s in most spots. The
warmest readings will again be through the Connecticut River
Valley and north of the mountains, while the coastline is likely
to be held to the upper 50s to near 60 with clouds and some fog
in the continued onshore flow.

Dew points rise into the 60s by the afternoon hours. With a
lack of organized forcing, widely scattered pop up showers and a
few thunderstorms are likely by the afternoon, with the best
chance for a thunderstorm across southwest New Hampshire.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1045 PM Update... Little change in the latest National Blend of
Model guidance. After a dry start, shower chances look to
increase late week into the upcoming weekend.

Previously...
Looking fairly wet Friday night through Sunday, and possibly
into Monday as an upper level low slowly approaches from the
west and moves over the region toward Sunday/Monday. Model
agreement decreases Sunday/Monday on the track of the upper low,
which will influence when the rain chances finally decrease.
Not looking favorable for any terribly heavy rain in any one
particular period late Friday through early next week, and not
anticipating any significant flooding concerns, but still
something to keep an eye on. Temperatures looking near or a bit
below average from the weekend into early next week, though
there is a good amount of uncertainty in temperatures. Depending
on the track of the upper low, can`t rule out some mountaintop
snow from Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR prevails today. Ceilings lower late this
afternoon and evening from south to north. MVFR ceilings likely
reach southern terminals around midnight, and slowly spread
northward overnight. HIE likely remains with VFR conditions
through tomorrow. IFR conditions in fog are possible along
coastal terminals late tonight, and would likely linger through
at least the morning tomorrow. Broken ceilings are expected for
most of the day tomorrow at other terminals, with mainly MVFR
prevailing.


Long Term...Along the coast, predominantly IFR through Friday
night, and possibly into the weekend as well. Periods of
MVFR/VFR are likely, but IFR should be more common.

Inland, MVFR/IFR possible mainly late night/early morning Thu/Fri,
with MVFR/IFR in the afternoon and early evening hours.
MVFR/IFR becomes the more common conditions inland late Fri
night into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Broad high pressure keeps winds and seas fair
through Thursday. Areas of dense fog are possible after midnight
tonight, and then linger through the day tomorrow.

Long Term...Conditions remaining less than small craft. Fog
possible over the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Tubbs