991
FXUS61 KGYX 191856
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
256 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Fair weather expected to start the week as temperatures
remain within a couple degrees of normal for mid-July.

2. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
evening through Wednesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

High pressure moves out to the Great Lakes this evening,
bringing a cool night with lighter winds. This afternoon`s gusts
were supported by a tight pressure gradient around low pressure
exiting to the northeast. The Ohio Valley high and cooler
airmass will allow decoupling to occur and begin a decent
radiational cooling night. Amid the calm winds, overnight lows
enter the mid 40s across the mountains with low to mid 50s
across the interior and coast.

High pressure passes to the south of New England Monday, and
low level winds lack the magnitude they had on Sunday. Thus
expect just diurnal breeze for most of the day with light
cumulus developing amid weak moisture. Decent sun should bump
highs a couple degrees higher than Sunday.

Clouds then thicken and begin to lower overnight into Tuesday.
This will likely keep the temp range a little tighter through
Tuesday. Come Tuesday evening, a push of moisture arrives from
the south and west to bring our next chance of precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Upper trough continues to dig into the Great Lakes Tuesday
evening, with moisture advection into the Northeast and New
England. IVT is fairly broad through this time period, with a
northerly stream advecting what westerlies bring across the TN
Valley. Greater IVT enhancement is noted into Tuesday night with
values likely to exceed 750 kg/m/s across both EPS and GEFS
ensembles. This lies just off the New England coast, so will
need to monitor should any further southerly advection takes
this more inland. This should bring PWATs 1.5 to 2.0 inches into
the region as low pressure pivots through James Bay.

Other heavy precip parameters are elevated, and while the system
should be progressive, will want to monitor any training of
moderate to heavy rain rates.

Guidance currently brings the best forcing through Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, not idea for additional
convection/severe chances. However if moisture lingers into the
afternoon, some additional development will be possible for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...NW gusts continue this afternoon,
beginning to truly subside after 00z. These become light a
variable, remaining VFR tonight. Could see some valley fog
towards HIE prior to sunrise Mon. Not as gusty Monday, but could
see a sharp increase in winds once mixing begins. VFR continues
with a cu field developing late morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday: VFR with increasing and lowering clouds. SHRA south to
north in the evening.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: SHRA/RA overspreads the area south to
north. Widespread MVFR likely, IFR cigs/vis possible in periods
of rainfall. This may linger for southern ME terminals into
Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday Night-Thursday: Improving to VFR Wed night with rain
exiting northeast. No sig wx.

Friday: VFR, no sig wx.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions have subsided behind an exiting cold front.
Expect below SCA condition through Monday and Tuesday as high
pressure moves south of New England. An advancing low pressure
system through Ontario and Quebec will bring a cold front
towards the coastal waters Wednesday. Expect increasing SE to S
winds and waves Tues night through Wednesday afternoon, with an
SCA likely needed.

High pressure returns late week, leading to lighter winds and
seas.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cornwell
AVIATION...Cornwell
MARINE...Cornwell