115
FXUS61 KGYX 070544
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
144 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure finally relents today and moves east enough to
allow a cold front to drop into the region. This will not be
before another day is spent with temperatures climbing into the
80s. Areas of rain showers will move along the front and bring
a fairly widespread soaking rain to the forecast area. Rain will
come to a quick end Wednesday, with cooler and drier air
surging into the region. By Thursday it will feel downright
fall-like.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Today will be one more day of well above normal temps and
record/near-record readings this afternoon. Strong
WAA...southwest downsloping winds...and perhaps some
compressional warming will send those temps into the 80s again.
See the climate section below for more information regarding
records for the day.

Otherwise the bulk of the precip should hold off until at least
after sunset for much of the forecast area. A few showers may
sneak into parts of northern NH before that time...but not quite
as high a chance as the current NBM shows. So I backed off the
timing of the like or higher PoP and sharpened the gradient on
the leading edge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front will continue to sag into the forecast area
overnight as areas of rain/showers work thru. With winds largely
parallel to the front that will be generally supportive of a
slow moving boundary and a good chance of a soaking rain. Hi-res
guidance is fair agreement on a mean QPF half to one inch
across most of the forecast area. 24 hr max QPF is not much
higher...around 1.5 inches...which makes sense given the overall
lack of strong convergence along the front. While welcome this
is not going to be enough to overcome any drought conditions.

As winds shift to northwesterly Wed the precip should quickly
come to an end. As such I also trimmed the higher PoP more
quickly on Wed as precip exits the area. Strong CAA will promote
deep mixing Wed. That will tap some higher momentum air at the
top of the boundary layer...so I blended in hi-res guidance from
the HRRR and nested NAM to increase the forecast winds/gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Evening update...A significantly colder and drier airmass will
continue to usher in Wednesday night with CAA from the
northwest. Low temperatures will fall to near or below freezing
across the north and some interior valleys with upper 30s/lower
40s along the coast and urban centers. Windchills will be about
10 degrees lower though than air temperatures. Even colder air
arrives for Thursday with highs only into the 50s to lower 60s
from north to south. Widespread frost/freeze conditions are then
likely Thursday night with lows near or below freezing in many
locations, especially away from the immediate coastline and
urban centers. A weak moderating trend is then likely through
the remainder of the week and weekend but daytime highs will
only warm to around seasonal averages with nighttime frost
remaining possible. Another dry spell looks likely as well.

Previous discussion...A cold front pushes offshore Wednesday
morning with a cooler and drier airmass arriving on gusty
northwest winds Wednesday afternoon. High pressure builds over
New England Thursday into Friday with the coldest night of the
season for most areas Thursday night. Mostly fair weather
continues into the weekend with moderating temperatures. Low
pressure off the Southeast coast may track far enough north to
bring chances for rain late in the weekend.

Mesoscale models are in decent agreement that rainfall will be
ongoing Wednesday morning with the forecast area turning dry
from NW to SE by the afternoon. Cold air advection behind the
front will favor mixing with northwest winds gusting around 30
MPH Wednesday afternoon. Downsloping will aid in boosting
temperatures close to 70 degrees along the coast while northern
areas may stay in the 50s for highs. Lows Wednesday night will
range from the upper 20s north to upper 30s south.

High pressure builds in Thursday allowing for fair weather and
a downward trend in northwest winds. Highs on Thursday will only
top out around 50 degrees across the north and 60 degrees near
the coast. Conditions will become favorable for efficient
radiational cooling and with a cool airmass in place, many areas
will likely see the coldest night of the season. Lows will
range from the low 20s north to low 30s south with frost
possible to the coastal zones and freezes across the interior.
Temperatures rebound into the lows 60s Friday and mid to upper
60s Saturday. A cutoff low over the Southeast may migrate
northwards over the weekend bringing a chance for rain back into
the forecast Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Mostly VFR conditions expected thru at least late
evening. As cold front begins to slink thru the region areas of
RA and lower CIGs will also work into the forecast area. Areas
of MVFR are likely...and local IFR or lower is possible in
heavier precip. Northwest winds will clear out precip and low
clouds Wed...with VFR returning during the day except for north
of the mtns...where MVFR CIGs hang on.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are likely through the
remainder of the week, although nighttime valley FG will be
possible most nights. In addition, NW wind gusts up to 25-30 kts
are possible Wednesday night-Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...South southwest winds will remain gusty thru today
with SCA conditions expected across all waters by afternoon.
Those SCA conditions continue overnight tonight and then again
Wed when winds shift to northwesterly.

Long Term...Northwesterly wind gusts will remain around 25-30
kts through Thursday. Seas of 1-3 ft can be expected in the bays
with 2- 4 ft across the outer waters. Winds and seas then will
lower through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds
over the waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
One more day of above normal temperatures are expected today.
Here are some of the records to watch.

  Oct 7
Concord 90(1963)
Manchester 82(2005)
Portland  84(1947)
Augusta83(1990)

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Tubbs
AVIATION...Legro/Tubbs
MARINE...Legro/Tubbs