388
FXUS61 KGYX 020114 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
914 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight...with a few
showers and thunderstorms possible into the evening. Drier air
moves back in for Wednesday before a secondary...stronger cold
front brings a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms for
Thursday afternoon, some potentially strong to severe. Drier and
cooler Canadian air arrives for Independence Day and Saturday
before temperatures move above normal to end the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Update...Used the latest hi-res guidance to adjust PoP to focus
things most near the coast. While showers will remain possible
thru midnight...the chances for thunder are decreasing so I
capped those at isolated. In addition all enhanced wording has
been removed from the convective forecast.

Previous discussion...
Key Messages:
* Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible through this
  evening.
* Patchy fog is expected overnight.

Details:  Watching convective potential through the evening hours
with effective shear increasing to 30-40kts with MLCAPEs now
building above 1000 J/kg across southern NH and extreme SW Maine.
Short term high res ensembles are pretty lackluster in terms of
convective coverage as forcing remains generally weak. Best llevel
frontal convergence appears to exist from southern New England south
and west /see MD1530 from SPC/...though weak height falls will
be ongoing across the area. Given the thermodynamic and
kinematic variables mentioned above...an isolated severe storm
is possible.

The push of drier air behind the cold front is pretty modest...so
with lingering llevel moisture...expect that we/ll see some patchy
fog develop.  Otherwise...a mild night is in store with lingering
cloudiness as the cold front slows upon reaching the Gulf of Maine.
Expect lows in the 60s throughout the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* No significant weather outside of some patchy fog possible
  again Wednesday night...most likely towards the Midcoast.

Details:  Mid level height rise center moves overhead through the
day with PWATs hovering just below one inch.  Model soundings
suggest dry profiles aloft despite modest MLCAPE. Given the mid
level height rises...forcing for ascent appears minimal and expect
we/ll make it through the day dry.  Certainly warm with T8s still
around +15C  which should allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s
over southern NH and along the coastal plain with seabreeze limited
to the immediate coast given offshore gradient.

Mid level flow backs Wednesday night ahead of next approaching
shortwave with cold front still well north and west of the region by
daybreak Thursday.  A dry and seasonable night /lows mid 50s to
lower 60s north to south/ is expected with modest llevel humidity
indicating some potential for some patchy fog under light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper-level low still be centered near James Bay Thursday morning
and will slowly dig to the south and east into Quebec through the
day. At the surface, MSLP depicts weak troughing across the region
with weak southerly flow on the eastern side supporting a chance of
low stratus or fog along the Midcoast in the morning. Going into the
afternoon, heights will fall with as the low upper low nears
along with a cold front approaching will bring increasing
chances for showers and storms in the afternoon to early evening
hours. Temperatures warming into the 80s for much of the area
along with cooling temperatures aloft will yield on the order of
500-1000 J/kg based on latest guidance, and increasing wind
fields aloft will bring 0-6km shear upwards of 40 kt, supporting
the possibility of strong to severe storms. This threat will
quickly diminish in the evening with generally dry conditions
overnight. However, fog may develop, especially in areas that
receive rain.

Cooler temperatures arrive on Friday behind the front with most
seeing highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with lower humidity. The
upper low will continue slowing crossing toward northern ME as the
day goes on and could bring some additional shower as it does so,
mainly over northern and eastern areas on the ascending side of the
trough axis. Increasing subsidence should keep other areas dry,
except there may be a period of upslope showers in the mountains.

Temperatures warm back up over the weekend as heights rise with high
pressure building in, which will also keep things dry, at least
through Saturday. By Sunday, low 90s will be possible away from the
coast. Global models for the most part are in good agreement in low
pressure passing well to the north with its associated frontal
boundary approaching from the north Sunday into early next week.
There`s still some timing differences as to be expected this far out
with the GFS brings showers in across the north as early as Saturday
night into Sunday while the ECMWF keeps things mostly dry through
Sunday. However, the ridge will break down at some point, and going
into early next week, the front should gradually sag farther
southward, bringing increasing shower chances for the rest of the
area and potentially storms as well. Temperatures look to remain
very warm into Monday and then may come down a bit by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Expect remaining MVFR locations outside of RKD to
continue to improve to VFR with isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible in the 20-01Z window. While storm
coverage is not expected to be great...any storms that develop
will have the potential to be strong to severe. Beyond
this...expect patchy fog development tonight with LIFR/IFR
conditions likely at RKD/PWM/AUG and possible at HIE/LEB. VFR
expected for the day Wednesday with additional fog possible
again Wednesday night...with the greatest threat for LIFR/IFR
conditions at RKD. Southwest winds 5-15kts will becoming light
tonight before turning west around 10kts Wednesday before
diminishing again Wednesday night.

Long Term...Fog or low stratus could be present in some areas
to start Thursday morning, but otherwise mostly VFR, although
showers and storms could produce TEMPO IFR to MVFR restrictions
in the afternoon and early evening. Showers remain possible
Friday, mainly HIE-AUG, but otherwise expecting VFR Friday
through Saturday. A frontal boundary approaches from the north
on Sunday, with increasing chances for showers near HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Outside of lingering fog over the waters this
afternoon...expect headline free conditions over the waters
under southwest winds 5-15kts through the period with seas
generally 2-4`. Fog will be possible over the waters again
Wednesday night.

Long Term...Fog may be over portions of the waters on Thursday
morning as a weak cold front approaches, bringing a chance of
showers along with a few storms. Flow will be south to
southwesterly Thursday and then more variable in direction
overnight into Friday with a weak low pressure over the waters.
Winds becomes south to southwesterly over the weekend as high
pressure becomes centered well to the south and southeast as
front approaches from the north, potentially increasing to SCA
levels at times from Sunday into early next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Arnott
LONG TERM...Combs