190
FXUS61 KGYX 030544
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
144 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control of the weather for most of the
week. A weak frontal boundary will cool temperatures off on
Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing once again towards the
end of the week. Overall conditions will remain mostly dry
except for a few passing showers in the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Near surface smoke impacts are possible across the mountains
  today. Air Quality Alerts have been issued at the request of
  New Hampshire DES and Maine DEP.

A frontal boundary slowly sinking southward out of Canada will
push a moderate concentration of wildfire smoke into the area
today, and with forecast soundings continuing to show very
efficient mixing some near surface impacts are possible,
particularly across the mountains. Both Maine and New Hampshire
Environmental Agencies are forecasting near surface
concentrations to be unhealthy for sensitive groups and
therefore we have issued Air Quality Alerts for the mountains
and foothills of both states at their request. Folks in these
areas and especially those hiking into the higher elevations
should be aware of this risk. South of the mountains and towards
the coast see less of a direct impact from the smoke, but will
still notice hazy skies. Through the filtered sunshine
temperatures should still be able to climb into the low to mid
80s south of the mountains, with the smokier skies up north
keeping them limited to the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* A moderate concentration of wildfire smoke may get pushed
  further southward Monday. Please refer to New Hampshire DES
  and Maine DEP forecast products regarding potential impacts to
  air quality.

Tonight: Flow turns out of the southwest tonight as low
pressure rides along the frontal boundary to our north. We could
see a period of wind gusts 15-20 mph in the Midcoast area late
in the evening, tapering off early in the night. Otherwise,
rising dewpoints and smoky/hazy skies will limit low
temperatures to the mid to upper 50s areawide. Valleys should
once again cool to the dewpoints, bring about another
night/early morning with patchy fog.

Monday: The frontal boundary sinks into our area Monday,
continuing to push wildfire smoke southward out ahead of it. The
00Z HRRR suggests some moderate concentrations could reach
southern New Hampshire and far southwestern Maine by the
afternoon. Have added some smoke wording to these areas as well
as the mountains again, although concentrations should overall
be lower than today. Otherwise, Monday will be the peak of our
little warm up with temperatures south of the mountains climbing
into the mid to upper 80s, and near 90 in parts of southern New
Hampshire. North of the mountains will start to see the effect
of the cooler air behind the front and likely top out in the mid
to upper 70s, with valley locations around 80. It should be
noted that dewpoints look to remain in the comfortable range
(upper 50s and low 60s), so elevated heat impacts are not
anticipated. This frontal boundary could tip off some isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains late afternoon and
early evening, but the timing and lack of a juicy environment
should keep them from becoming anything significant.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overnight long term update...01z NBM has been incorporated into
the going long term forecast. This has yielded very little
change to the previous forecast which is mostly dry all week.
Another warming trend is expected toward the end of the week.

Previously...

High Impact Weather...
    * No high impact weather is expected with quiet weather
    * Cumulative drying will continue this week

Mostly quiet weather expected in the extended period with no
strong frontal features. The biggest impact will be another push
of drier air Monday night, but not expected to reach into
southern areas as the boundary washes out across central New
Hampshire. Tuesday through Wednesday the CWA will have a
boundary stalled out across the region, with the potential for a
few afternoon showers, but confidence is so low at this time,
consensus forecast keeps pops very low. Overall expecting near
normal temperatures for this period with mostly clear skies.
Winds will remain light and overall weather looks goods.
Temperatures will be trending upward by Thursday and definitely
Friday as heights rise and the surface ridge begins to move to
the east allowing for return flow. Looking to remain dry right
into the end of next week. This will continue the summer
rainfall deficits for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Valley fog dissipates early today with mainly VFR
skies and visibilities expected. Northern terminals may see some
visibilities drop toward MVFR as wildfire smoke enters the
region. Valley fog may bring restrictions to LEB and HIE again
tonight. Monday will be similar with VFR prevailing, but
lingering wildfire smoke bringing the potential for brief MVFR
visibilities. Wind gusts around 20kts are possible at PWM, RKD,
and AUG this afternoon.

Long Term...No significant aviation weather impacts expected
through this period with limited stratus incursions expected as
high pressure and relatively low dewpoints keep the threat for
low marine stratus low. In addition, no significant rainfall
chances expected. Seabreezes are expected most days next week at
the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds gusts and seas remain below SCA criteria
through Monday as high pressure becomes centered southeast of
the waters. South-southeasterly wind gusts around 20 kts are
possible Sunday afternoon into sunday night as a frontal
boundary sinks into the northeast from Canada tightening the
pressure gradient over the waters.

Long Term...Seas will remain below SCA conditions with a
persistent area of high pressure over the coastal waters next
week. No significant moisture pushes are expected until late
next week, so the fog threat remains low. Thunderstorm activity
also looks very limited.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>021-033.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for MEZ027-028.
NH...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Sunday for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Dumont/Ekster