898
FXUS61 KGYX 071735
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
135 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses New England tonight and early Wednesday.
Areas of rain showers will move along the front and bring a
fairly widespread soaking rain to the forecast area. Rain will
come to a quick end Wednesday, with cooler and drier air surging
into the region. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the
week, with temps gradually warming into the weekend. Dry
conditions continue as low pressure remains south of New England
through at least early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure tracking through the St Lawrence Valley will drag a
cold front across northern New England tonight through Wednesday
morning. Deeper moisture will advect into the region ahead of the
front with PWATs climbing to around 1.5 inches. Showers will break
out across northwestern zones around sunset and there may be enough
instability for some embedded thunder. A period of rain is then
expected across the forecast area tonight into Wednesday morning.
While there is high confidence much of the area will see beneficial
rainfall, CAMs suggest some areas could receive upwards of 1.25+
inches while others may receive less than 0.25 inches. These
localized areas of lesser amounts are generally favored across the
the interior while the mountains are favored to receive the higher
end amounts. Have generally stuck with the NBM that brings a
broad brush of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of QPF with low confidence in
pinning down where the lesser amounts will occur. Otherwise, it
will be mild and breezy tonight with lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will be approaching the coast Wednesday morning
with a wave of low pressure possibly forming along the front.
The wave of low pressure may slow the front down with rain
likely lingering along the coastal plain through the morning.
Winds will shift out of the NW late Wednesday morning advecting
drier air into the area with clearing skies NW to SE. Highs will
generally be in the upper 50s north while downsloping winds will
help push temperatures into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees
south of the mountains. Deep mixing will allow for gusts to
around 25 to 30 mph.

The PGF will increase Wednesday night between deepening low
pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building in
from the west. This will keep winds elevated overnight with the
continuation of cold air advection. Lows will range from the
upper 20s north to near 40 degrees near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview...

High pressure remains in control of our weather pattern across
New England from midweek right through the weekend. Low pressure
likely stalls south of the high along the Mid Atlantic coast
late this week and into the weekend.

Details...

High pressure steadily builds in from the northwest on
Thursday, bringing a cooler airmass and dry conditions to
northern New England. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of
the week, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across the
north, to near 60 along the coastline. A widespread frost/freeze
looks likely Thursday night in most locations.

Temperatures begin to moderate on Friday as the high pressure
center moves overhead and begins to shift eastward. Temperatures
generally look about 5 degrees warmer on Friday with continued
dry conditions. Saturday then looks about another 5 degrees
warmer, with highs ranging from the low 60s across the north to
the upper 60s along the coastline.

The high keeps the low pressure south of New England through
the Holiday weekend, but some high clouds likely begin to reach
into southern areas by Sunday. An east-northeast flow also
develops across New England as the low the high circulations
interact, bringing a slight cool down into Sunday and Monday.
Dry conditions likely continue through the first half of next
week as temperatures begin to moderate again going into midweek
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Clouds thicken and low from NW to SE as a cold
front presses into the area. Cigs will drop near MVFR/IFR
thresholds late tonight into Wednesday morning with some reduced
visibility in rain. Drier air allows for improving conditions
from NW to SE with VFR likely by Wednesday afternoon. Breezy
northwest winds and continued dry air advection will likely
allow for VFR to prevail Wednesday night.

Long Term...VFR prevails at all terminals during the daytime
through early next week. Nighttime valley fog is possible each
night, especially at LEB, HIE, and CON.


&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Southwest winds will increase into tonight ahead of
a cold front with SCAs in effect into Wednesday morning. As the
front crosses the waters early afternoon there will be a brief
lull in winds before cold air advection ramps up Wednesday night
when SCAs will likely be needed again.


Long Term...SCA conditions are possible in northwesterly flow
on Thursday as high pressure builds across the waters.
Conditions ease by Thursday night, with the high crossing the
waters on Friday. The high remains in place through the weekend,
bringing fair conditions. SCA conditions are then possible
early next week as seas begin to build from a storm stalled
south of New England.


&&

.CLIMATE...
One more day of above normal temperatures are expected today.
Here are some of the records to watch.

  Oct 7
Concord 90(1963)
Manchester 82(2005)
Portland  84(1947)
Augusta83(1990)

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Clair