810
FXUS61 KGYX 151836
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
236 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to the going forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mostly dry conditions prevail tonight through Wednesday
night with a subtle warmup into the 70s.

2. There is a chance for rain late this week, but otherwise it
will be generally dry with near to below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

High pressure slides off the East Coast through tonight. Subtle
return flow will kick in later this afternoon, with lighter
southerly flow continuing through the night. This should lead to
a warmer night than last night, with a cast of cirrus
preventing the good radiational cooling setup we had last night.

Radar to the west does depict some rain ahead of a lifting warm
front, and wouldn`t count out a few showers or sprinkles making
it to the mountains and foothills tonight. But this will need
to overcome a large amount of dry air, so kept these chances
focused after midnight.

Wednesday will bring warmer temperatures despite increased
cloudiness. This will arrive ahead of an incoming cold front.
There will be an increase in moisture, but forcing is weak. NBM
keeps no mention of showers in the forecast area, but don`t
think a brief shower can be completely ruled out midday. Timing
low and upper moisture would be key, and right now this is a
narrow window before deeper moisture pushes east by late
afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

We will end the work week under near zonal flow aloft with a fast
jet to our north and a strong ridge to our south. At the surface,
high pressure will move out into the Atlantic on Thursday as a weak
cold front approaches from the west. The southern ridge will also
retrograde a little bit, transitioning our region into some broad
cyclonic flow aloft. All of these factors will lead to increasing
precipitation chances (30 to 60 percent) Thursday afternoon and
night. Most of the rain will move out on early Friday morning, but
we could see a few showers lingering across the north. As far as
totals go, this system still appears to be fairly low impact with
NBM probabilities only maxing out around 50 percent for a quarter
inch or more. As of now, it appears the best chances will develop
over portions of southern and central New Hampshire before moving
into Interior and Coastal Maine.

Friday and Saturday should be mainly dry as high pressure moves back
into the region. Most ensembles then have a shortwave or two moving
through Sunday or at the beginning of the next work week, which will
lead to our next precipitation chances. For several days, this next
system appeared to be more favorable for some widespread rain but
the 12z model runs have trended a bit further south. Timing also WPC
continues to be very uncertain as several ensemble members bring
chances in as early as Sunday afternoon and some do not bring rain
in until Monday or Tuesday. Some members keep precipitation almost
completely out of forecast area. Thus, there are still many
potential solutions on the table and we will hopefully see some
better model agreement in the coming days.

Regarding temperatures, highs will mainly be in the mid 60s to mid
70s Thursday and Friday (may a few upper 70s over southern New
Hampshire). We then cool down over the weekend and into next week
with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR expected. Light southerly flow
increases through this afternoon, becoming lighter overnight.
High clouds thicken and slowly lower overnight. Some MVFR cigs
possible near the US/CAN border. Weak, below threshold LLWS
possible late tonight as a warm front lifts through. Otherwise
the only chance for additional restrictions will be vis related
where valley fog could develop near LEB. VFR Wednesday with
patchy MVFR cigs from LEB to IZG to just north of AUG/WVL.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: Clouds may thicken and lower with MVFR cigs in
southern and northern NH to the western ME mtns.

Thursday and Thursday night: Areas of rain showers and local MVFR
conditions possible.

Friday: VFR conditions expected.

Saturday: VFR conditions expected.

Sunday and Sunday night: Areas of rain showers and local MVFR
conditions or lower possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds
through the remainder of the week. A stronger frontal wave will
approach the waters over the weekend, and this will be the
window for some areas of SCA conditions.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Hargrove