385
FXUS61 KGYX 231421
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
921 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system crossing Quebec early this morning with bring scattered
snow showers through this morning. High pressure builds back
into the area from the south tonight into Monday. Additional
weak systems will track near the Northeast Monday night into
Wednesday brining chances for light precipitation. Temperatures
will run above normal through much of the upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Prev Disc...
Snow showers continue to fall in the mountains per latest
webcams and surface observations. A fairly good signature
remains on latest radar imagery indicating the precipitation
occasionally exiting out of the mountains and through the
foothills as well as central and Midcoast Maine.

Only minor modifications made to the near term portion of the
forecast with highs reaching the upper 20s in the north to
mid/upper 30s in the south. Have upped pops slightly which is in
good agreement with the latest HRRR.


645 AM...Surface trough is now crossing the NH/ME border and is
producing some light snow showers along the coastal plain based
on radar and surface observations. Have made some very minor
tweaks to PoPs to better align with these observed trends.
Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast for
today.

Previously...

Latest water vapor imagery shows a short wave crossing Quebec
with a surface trough draped across Vermont. Radar shows weak
returns across the forecast area with surface observations
suggesting this activity has yet to reach the ground. As the
surface trough crosses the area through daybreak snow shower
activity will increase with any light accumulations restricted
to the mountains. Chances for snow showers will diminish later
this afternoon as high pressure starts to build back into the
area. Skies will generally remain mostly to partly cloudy
through the day south of the mountains with west winds gusting
up to 20 mph. Highs will range from the upper 20s north to upper
30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Thinning cloud cover and slackening winds will allow for some
radiational cooling tonight. Lows will range from the single
digits to the teens.

After a mostly clear start to the day Monday, clouds will
increase from the west as the next disturbance approaches. Much
of the area will remain dry through the day will the mountains
seeing slight chances for snow showers before sunset.
Temperatures will trend above normal with highs ranging from
the mid 30s north to low 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long Term Update...Forecast continues to contain a few quick and
weak systems with little sign of more impactful disturbances.
Temperatures above normal will be in the region much of the week.
Distinctive systems include quick moving lows Tues into Wed, Wed
night into Thursday, and another clipper this weekend arriving from
the Great Lakes. At this range, QPF is low due to the progressive
tracks and lack of deeper moisture. The last two may have a higher
ceiling on QPF than what they currently present, mainly due to
uncertainty in phasing with southern stream moisture. All in all,
total QPF mean through this weekend from the GEFS and EPS continues
to fall below half an inch, with the greater jumps occuring with the
Wed night into Thursday system. This system phases with some
southern stream moisture off the East Coast, with a QPF shield
expanding along the Gulf Stream. Should the timing of this translate
earlier, greater precip may be in the forecast.

Previously...

Overview...

A moderating trend is expected through midweek this week,
bringing the warmest temperatures seen in several weeks. The
storm track then becomes more active later in the week as the
northern branch of the jet stream moves closer to New England.


Details...

Temperatures moderate into the 40s in many locations through
the first few days of the work week as modified pacific air
moves across the northern tier of the country. Several weak and
low moisture systems are expected to transit through the region
this week, bringing a chance for some rain and snow showers as
they pass through. The greatest chance for these will be across
northern areas and the higher terrain with each system.

The first couple weak systems track north of the area, with one
moving through Monday night, and another on Tuesday night. The
next one looks to arrive on Thursday with a bit more widespread
moisture. While still a weak system, a track through New England
would increase the chances for some light snowfall
accumulations across northern areas, while southern areas are
still likely to see mostly rain showers.

Another weak system is likely next weekend as well. Models had
been showing the potential for a stronger storm with this system
a few days ago, but have shifted and continue to show a weaker
system, with the main system passing well out to sea. We`ll have
to continue to keep and eye on this system as the northern and
southern branch of the jet stream are not far off from phasing
and bringing a more significant system. However, at this point
there is no trend in that direction amongst the models or
ensembles. Regardless of how strong that system ultimately
becomes, colder air looks likely to make a return behind it late
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR today through Monday. The exception will
be periods of MVFR at KHIE this morning as cigs lower and -SHSN
develop. MVFR at KHIE may linger into this afternoon.

Long Term...Mainly VFR prevails this week, but periods of MVFR
ceilings with rain and snow showers are possible at times Monday
night, Tuesday night, moreso on Thursday, and then again next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A system crossing SE Canada will bring steady SW to
W winds over the waters with gusts forecast to stay just shy of
SCA thresholds. Winds relax tonight into Monday morning before
increasing Monday afternoon as the next weak system tracks
across SE Canada.

Long Term...A series of weak systems pass north of the waters
this week, each one bringing the chance for SCA conditions in
freshening southerly flow. These system are expected to pass by
Monday night, Tuesday night, Thursday, and next weekend.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Clair