Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
906 FXUS61 KGYX 200507 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1207 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and sunny weather persists today as high pressure continues to build into the region. Calm and mostly clear weather will make for another cold night tonight. The daylight hours of Friday should be mostly dry outside of the mountains before a front brings a slight chance of showers Friday night. The pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least the middle of next week with several chances for disturbances to cross the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant weather impacts expected Visible satellite early this morning shows some low cloud cover hanging on along the International Border and into central Somerset County. This is keeping the area insulated and making Jackman one of the warmest places in the CWA at 28F. Elsewhere, temperatures are well on their way into the teens and low 20s. High clouds are also encroaching from the west, but these should not affect the ongoing radiational cooling. High pressure becomes centered over the area today making for another dry and sunny day. After a cold night high temperatures will recover into the mid- to upper 30s across northern zones, and into the low to mid-40s across southern zones. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant weather impacts expected Tonight: High pressure departs tonight, but hold on long enough to make for another clear and calm night. Flow aloft transitions southwesterly, so there will be some moisture advection that could lead to some clouds and hinder radiational cooling a bit, but low temperatures are likely to drop into the teens and 20s once again. Friday: Low pressure centered north of the region begins to push a front toward the area. Showers begin in the mountains late morning/early afternoon. Continued warm air advection pushes temperatures above freezing here, topping out in the upper 30s and low 40s. As a result a few snowflakes may mix in at onset, but outside of the higher peaks, it should quickly transition to rain. Temperatures south of the mountains push into the mid- to upper 40s. Showers hold off in these zones until after the end of the short term forecast period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Evening Update... Key Messages: *Friday night system continues to trend drier with latest model runs The bulk of the long term has not significantly changed with the incorporation of the latest NBM as we head back into an unsettled pattern with several chances for disturbances to cross the region through the middle of next week. PoPs and QPF Friday night continue to trend downward for most of the area. Global models show a mid- level dry slot in the split flow over our area which may reduce any widespread precipitation previously expected to just a few light showers (already being hinted at in the 20/00Z NAMNest) as the best forcing remains north and south of our area. PoPs remain highest across the north as showers last through the first part of the night. Previous Discussion... There are some solutions that bring a second plume of rain into the Gulf of Maine by Saturday morning, clipping southern NH and the southern ME coast. However, still equal chances this occurs later and over the open Gulf waters. For precip types, model soundings point to a rain/snow event with rain in most locations and snow mixing in for the mountains. Brief high pressure works into the region Saturday night with clouds remaining mostly over the mountains. Drying in the column increases confidence that other locations see mostly clear skies. Did drop low temperatures for another cool night in the lower 20s and upper teens. This should be attainable in good radiational cooling conditions. Hesitant to go any lower with center of the high to the south and light NW breeze continuing in the evening. Will look for another weak disturbance to swing through northern New England Sunday night followed by another brief ridge of high pressure through early week. Next system to impact the region with measurable precip looks to be into mid-week next week. Early deterministic runs, and AI-GEFS, portray this as a overunning event with additional low development in the Gulf of Maine. This could lead to CAD and mixed precip, but duration and intensity will need to be refined as the date nears. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Other than the possibility of some fog early this morning around LEB, which should clear shortly after 12Z, VFR should prevail through Friday as the region remains under high pressure. Long Term...Still could see period of IFR ceilings for mountain/western terminals overnight Friday. SHRA is forecast for much of the area, most prominent to again where MVFR is likely. SHSN may reduce some vis in the mountains. Expect trend to VFR for Sat and Sun, with lowered ceilings holding on towards HIE and CAN/US border locations. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA criteria through the day Friday as high pressure remains over the waters. Winds shift from northerly to southerly tonight, where they will remain through Friday. Long Term...Southerly flow preempts passage of a occluded front Friday night. These become NW Saturday with some gusts to 25 kt on the coastal waters. These slacken Sat night into Sunday as high pressure passes to the south. A weaker system passes to the north Sun night, with high pressure again building across the region Mon/Tues. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron LONG TERM...Baron/Cornwell