815
FXUS61 KGYX 020912
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
412 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The first widespread winter storm is expected to bring a
plowable snow to much of the region today into tonight. The
weather will briefly turn quieter on Wednesday before an Arctic
cold front brings snow squalls and breezy conditions Thursday
afternoon and evening before temperatures turn sharply colder to
end the week. Additional snow shower activity is possible again
this weekend as a series of disturbances cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

4:10am Update... Did some fine tuning of forecast temps today
near the coastal front, and the adjustments to snowfall that
came with it near the coast. Temps cooled into the teens and low
20s overnight as skies remained mostly clear through the
evening, providing a colder start as clouds move in this
morning.

With the cold air in place, the coastal front will serve as a
tight gradient between efficiently accumulating snow on the
cold side, and lesser accumulations and mixing with rain on the
warm side of the front. This update utilized the latest HRRR
data to try to better represent the front, resulting in a
slightly cooler outcome for parts of the southern Maine coast
and the Seacoast of New Hampshire. So snowfall came up slightly
as well in these areas, but mostly from a tightening of the
gradient closer to the coastline rather than a change in the
system`s progression.

Overall the system remains on track for today, but we`ll
continue to look for any trends as we move into the nowcasting
stage of the system this morning.

Key Messages:

Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories remain in effect this morning
into tonight. Cold temperatures this morning will prime roads for
accumulating snow this morning. Snow breaks out between 8 and 10 AM
and will become heavy at times this afternoon through the evening
commute creating hazardous travel.

A corridor of heavy wet snow is likely just inland from coast into
southern New Hampshire that will cling to branches bringing a
limited power outage threat.

Forecast Details:

No significant changes in the overall forecast thinking as a
progressive area of low pressure tracks southeast of Cape Cod this
evening spreading snow into the region today. The low exits east
tonight with snow tapering off NW to SE during the pre dawn
hours Wednesday morning. Favorable dynamics with the right
entrance region of an upper jet streak sliding over northern
Maine will aid in the development of a moderate to heavy snow
band/s northwest of the low center. The latest WPC Snowband
Probability Tracker (SPT) has become more bullish over the past
couple of runs with the potential for SW to NE bands developing
over south-central NH this afternoon and slowly translating ENE
across Maine through this evening. The latest hi res guidance
suggest that snowfall rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible
within these bands. The WPC SPT does suggest that areas from
the southern Whites to the coast could have this band/s move
overhead bringing the potential for hazardous travel with
visibility reduced to one quarter a mile.

The latest NBM has come in wetter and warmer near the coast, as
at this time range it places higher weight on CAMs. This brings
the rain snow line several miles inland and may push west of
I-95 at times across SW Maine and SE NH. Have utilized the 925
0C isotherm as proxy to lower temperatures as heavy precipitation
rates can increase evaporative cooling and overcome marginal
surface temperatures for accumulation. After lowering
temperatures within areas of heavier rates, the latest snowfall
forecast has come down across southeast NH and coastal Maine.
While snowfall amounts come short of Warning criteria, have left
the Warnings here unchanged because the timing of a couple
hours of heavy snow during the evening commute will still bring
dangerous travel conditions. The slight increase in QPF did bump
up snow totals across the interior while overall the forecast
calls for 6 to 10 inches within the Warning and 3 to 6 inches
north of the mountains. There will likely be a sharp gradient in
snow amounts within a few miles of the coast.

As the low pulls east tonight winds shift northerly allowing any
rain near the coast to change back to snow. Snow will taper off
after midnight from NW to SE with snow likely ending before the
Wednesday morning commute. Coastal areas could see a few inches
of snow after the change over tonight. Northerly winds will
increase this evening and will remain gusty overnight with peak
gusts 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure noses in from the SW Wednesday allowing gusty
winds to diminish. Mostly sunny skies will turn partly to mostly
cloudy late in the day as a front approaches from SE Canada.
Highs on Wednesday will range from the 20s north to upper 30s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: An Arctic front will cross on Thursday afternoon, bringing
the potential for snow squalls. Bitterly cold windchills are then
expected Thursday night behind this front. There remains uncertainty
about another potential winter storm this weekend but it bears
watching. Temperatures will mainly remain below normal through the
long term period of the forecast.

Impacts: Snow squalls are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening
as an Arctic front crosses the region. These will have the potential
to produce rapidly deteriorating travel conditions. In
addition, NW wind gusts up to around 35 mph are possible. Sub-
zero windchills are expected Thursday night.

Forecast Details: A positively tiled H5 trof axis over Hudson Bay
will continue to move east towards New England on Wednesday night
ahead of an Arctic front that will cross on Thursday afternoon.
Wednesday night will feature mainly cloudy skies with snow showers
developing across the mountains and towards the Canadian Border
after midnight. Low temperatures will be into the teens to
lower 20s. The aforementioned Arctic front will cross Thursday
afternoon/evening as the H5 trof crosses the area while becoming
negatively tilted. T8s will drop to below -20C, which combined
with some instability from sfc heating will allow for potential
snow squalls during the afternoon and early evening. Any squalls
will have the potential to result in rapidly deteriorating road
conditions. In addition, the increasing low-lvl jet will allow
for NW wind gusts up to around 30- 35 mph along and behind the
front. High temperatures will be relatively mild into the lower
30s across the north to around 40 degrees along the coast and in
southern NH.

Bitterly cold windchills are then expected Thursday night with
widespread below zero values. Actual forecasts lows range from
around -5 across the north with single digits elsewhere. It is
possible that some northern zones could approach cold weather
advisory criteria. Blustery conditions will persist on Friday
with windchills remaining into the single digits and teens under
partly cloudy skies. Friday night will remain cold with lows
into the single digits and lower teens. Forecast uncertainty
then increases this weekend as some guidance shows another
potential coastal low near New England while other guidance
keeps this suppressed to our south. It bears watching as we get
closer to see how things trend but temperatures would likely be
colder enough for snow in most locations should the
precipitation reach the area. Another Arctic front is likely to
cross Sunday night with another push of well below normal
temperatures for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail into day break. Snow breaks out
after 12Z with IFR to LIFR likely from late morning through 06Z
tonight. Conditions improve to VFR Wednesday. NE to N winds will
gust around 20 to 25 kts this evening through tonight.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Scattered heavy snow showers or squalls are possible on Thursday
afternoon and early evening as an Arctic front crosses, and these
could bring brief periods of IFR-LIFR restrictions. In addition, NW
wind gusts behind the front could approach 30 kts Thursday afternoon
and evening. More persistent MVFR CIGS are likely at KHIE behind
this front through Thursday night due to developing upslope
flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure tracks near Cape Cod this evening and
towards Nova Scotia tonight. Temperatures will be warm enough
for mainly rain over the waters. NE to N winds increase this
evening with Gales likely tonight into Wednesday morning along
the outer waters.

Long Term...Northwesterly gales are possible Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night behind an Arctic front with seas outside of the bays
building to 4-6 ft. Light freezing spray is possible as very cold
air moves across the waters. Winds and seas then look to remain
below SCA levels through Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for MEZ007>009.
     Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for MEZ012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for NHZ001>003.
     Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for NHZ004>015.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Tubbs