884
FXUS61 KGYX 210515
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1215 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the Northeast early today before
moving off to the east. A weak weather system will move across
Northern New England this afternoon and tonight bringing rather
low chances for rain and snow showers across the north. A few
sprinkles or brief showers will be possible elsewhere this
afternoon. High pressure briefly returns late Saturday into
Sunday before another weak system crosses Sunday night. Another
area of high pressure builds in Monday and Tuesday with the
pattern turning more active towards the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Low pressure well north of the forecast area will swing a weak
warm front across the region today, followed by a weak cold
front later today and tonight. Moisture will be very limited
with this weather system and only chancy showery PoPs are
forecast, mainly in the mountains. However, weak WAA may allow
for some sprinkles or passing light showers elsewhere including
the coastal plain this afternoon and evening. Highs will be in
the 40s at most lower elevation locations. Southwesterly winds
will gust 15 to 20 MPH at times today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weak cold front moves across the forecast area tonight with
little fanfare, perhaps a few rain and snow showers across the
north and west. Another short wave trough crosses the region on
Saturday and this one should be even more moisture-starved. So
other than some clouds, we expect most locations to remain dry.
Westerly winds will gust up to 20 MPH at times Saturday with
highs mainly in the 40s, perhaps even around 50 in the Merrimack
Valley of NH as well as the coast of ME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday Night: High pressure continues to build into the
region Saturday night setting up clear and calm conditions
outside of the mountains. An exiting trough transitions flow
northwesterly, so some upslope snow showers are possible in the
mountains, but drier air aloft likely limits them. Low
temperatures currently look to fall into the upper teens and low
20s across the area, but if this continues to look like a good
setup for radiational cooling as it moves into the short term,
expect these to end up even lower.

Sunday and Monday: Low pressure begins to move eastward out of
Ontario Sunday and flow aloft transitions to a less favorable
south westerly flow, so any upslope showers should come to an
end. Clouds increase Sunday afternoon as moist southwesterly
flow develops ahead of the advancing shortwave trough.
Temperatures top out in the upper 30s to low 40s south of the
mountains, and in the low to mid-30s to the north. The low
pressure drags a front through the area Sunday night, but there
isn`t a whole lot of moisture associated with it, so showers may
actually be limited to the mountains as the attendant trough
flips flow back to northwesterly. GFS Froude numbers suggest
blocked flow, so Sunday night may be drier and clearer south of
the mountains. Low temperatures bottom out in the low to mid-20s
areawide, with some upper 20s in southern New Hampshire and the
coastal plain. Monday features high pressure building back in
at the surface and height rises aloft. Flow remains
northwesterly so upslope snow showers continue through a portion
of the day, but the height rises eventually bring those to an
end. Temperatures reach the 40s south of the mountains and 30s
to the north. Monday night is dry as high pressure peaks at the
surface with the ridge still sliding in aloft. Temperatures fall
into the 20s areawide.

Tuesday-Thursday: High pressure slides off to the east Tuesday,
but global models differ on timing with how the pattern evolves
from this point on. The Euro brings precipitation in as early
as Tuesday afternoon, whereas the GFS hold off until Tuesday
night. The NBM takes the consensus route here with chance PoPs
Tuesday afternoon with the higher PoPs overnight. Global models
bring a dry slot during the day Wednesday, but timing on a
secondary moisture push is even more uncertain with the Euro
favoring Wednesday night, and the GFS wanting to washout the
Thanksgiving holiday. Models have also been consistently hinting
at a warm up during this time period, so would expect any
system that occurs to be mostly rain. The take away here is to
keep a close eye on the forecast, especially for those planning
to travel, as the signal is trending toward something around the
holiday time period, but the signal is not strong for anything
overly impactful at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected today through
Saturday with the exception being in the mountains where
occasional MVFR cigs will occur with the passage of a couple of
weak fronts.

Long Term...VFR should prevail at most terminals through at
least Monday as high pressure becomes dominate over the region
beginning Saturday night. The next chance for widespread MVFR or
lower conditions looks to be Tuesday as a larger disturbance
may be approaching the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure drifts east over the waters this
morning then well offshore this afternoon. A cold front will
pass over the waters Friday afternoon, increasing gusts to
around 20 kts. Can`t rule out a brief period of 25 kts as winds
shift SW to W. Wind wave will be slow to react, becoming 2 to 4
ft Friday night into Saturday.

Long Term...Marine conditions remain below SCA criteria through
the majority of the long term period as high pressure builds
over the waters. SCA conditions may build late in the week as
models suggest a disturbance or two may cross the region.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Baron