219
FXUS61 KGYX 081954
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
254 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northwesterly winds will continue through Saturday morning
behind a strong cold frontal passage. High pressure and
seasonable temperatures move in for the weekend. Scattered
showers return early next week with a broad trough of low
pressure before high pressure and mainly dry conditions return
by the middle of next week along with near seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon advancing clouds
across much of western ME and north-central NH and sinking
southward in association with a cold front. Radar imagery and
webcams show scattered showers also gradually moving southward
over the north, mountains, and foothills. Dew point depressions
are large south of the mountains but despite this a few light
showers or sprinkles will remain possible over the next few
hours. Northwesterly winds are beginning to increase with fairly
widespread gusts between 30-35 mph now being observed. Current
temperatures range from the 40s across the north with lower 60s
south and these readings will continue to fall through the
remainder of the day as cloud cover and CAA increases.

The surface cold front will move offshore early this evening but
strong gradient flow between low pressure to our north and high
pressure to our south will persist. Latest guidance continues to
indicate the passage of around a 60 kt LLJ tonight, which aligns
well with latest observations from Mount Washington, NH. This
will result in wind gusts between 30-40 mph south of the
mountains tonight with gusts between 45-55 mph across the north
and mountains (higher across the ridge tops). Froude numbers
will be on the increase with values nearing 1-2 by early
Saturday morning and this suggests the potential for locally
strong downslope winds. Therefore, expanded the wind advisory to
include portions of northern NH and the western ME foothills.

Upslope snow showers over the north and mountains will gradually
wane after midnight with the arrival of drier air but before
then some light accumulations are possible. Overnight low
temperatures will range from the 20s to 30s but windchill values
will make it feel 10+ degrees cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Strong gradient winds on Saturday morning will subside later in
the day as high pressure begins to arrive from the west. Skies
will be partly to mostly sunny with high temperatures into the
30s across the north to around 50 south.

High pressure and mid-level ridging will crest over the region
on Saturday night, which combined with clear skies and light
winds will allow for strong radiational cooling. As a result,
used MOS guidance for overnight lows which brings readings down
into the teens across the valleys with lower to middle 20s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sub-tropical ridging over the Gulf of Mexico at 500 MB hold in
the place through the extended forecast, which will make it
difficult for deep trough to develop over the E half of the
CONUS, and also keep the coldest air confined mostly poleward of
the Arctic Circle. Flow will tend to more zonal over the CWA,
with a few less amplified troughs and ridges moving though850
temps mostly hover in in the 0 to + 5C range, bit a brief
periods below and above that are expecting in the trough and
ridges, making for a somewhat changeable temps next week, bit
overall temps mostly near to above normal at the sfc.

Sunday should start sunny, with some clouds moving in late in
the day and highs in the 50s as sfc high passes to our S. A
compact closed low crosses the great Lakes Sunday and moves into
SW QC by Monday morning. A weak wave rotating around the SE
side of that system will produce some showers Sunday into early
Monday. Previous model runs showed this system tracking more W-E
through the CWA, but 12Z models tend to the core 500 MB to our
NW, so this will limit the QPF and allow for faster clearing
outside the mtns on Monday. Lows Sunday night will be in the
evening, and range from the low to mid 30s in the mtns to the
low 40s in the S, but temps will rise a bit after midnight, as S
flow picks up.

We break into the warm sector on Monday behind the warm front,
with at least partly sunny skies S and E of the mtns and highs
pushing into the 60-65 range in the S, but still only the 50s in
the mtns. The sfc cold front holds off until Mon evening, and
could produce some mtns showers, which may end as snow in the
mtns, especially on higher terrain, but it will stray dry to the
S. Mins fall into the low to mid 30s in the N to low 40s in the
S.

Narrow but high amplitude ridge moves in for Tue/Wed. With dry
and sunny conds and temps generally running near normal. The
next system moves in toward the end of the next week, but looks
like it will not produce much in the way of precip, although it
will usher in some potentially colder air.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions will persist through the period,
although MVFR restrictions will be possible at times through
early tonight at KHIE. Northwesterly winds between 15-25 kts can
be expected through 15Z Saturday with gusts up to 35 kts
possible. Winds will begin to subside later Saturday with light
winds and VFR conditions expected through Saturday night. No
LLWS is currently anticipated.

Long Term...VFR expected through the day Sunday, with a period
of MVFR-IFR cigs in showers and low cigs Sunday night into the
first half of Monday, but this should clear out of all but KHIE
by midday Monday with VFR expected through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gale force northwesterly wind gusts up to 40 kts
can be expected through Saturday morning across all waters
except for Casco Bay where gusts will largely remain below 35
kts. Seas of 2-6 ft can be expected outside of the bays with 1-3
ft in the bays themselves. Winds and seas will fall below SCA
thresholds later Saturday and remain there through Saturday
night.

Long Term...SCA may be needed Monday into Monday night, in SW
flow ahead of cols front, which will shift to NW on Tuesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for MEZ007>009-012-013-
     033.
NH...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NHZ001-002-004.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ150>152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cempa