563
FXUS61 KGYX 081758
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1258 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves through this afternoon, with gusty
winds behind the front. High pressure and seasonable
temperatures move in for the weekend. Scattered showers return
early next week with a broad trough of low pressure before high
pressure and mainly dry conditions return by the middle of next
week along with near seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
100 PM Update... Clouds associated with the approaching cold
front continue to sink south this afternoon along with some
light rain over the far north and mountains. Skies will trend
cloudier through the remainder of the afternoon with cooling
temperatures and increasing winds.

Previously...
1030 AM Update.. Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends. Westerly winds are beginning to increase as expected
with partly sunny skies over the north/mountains and mainly
sunny skies south.

Previously...
6:45am Update... Temps dropped off over the last few hours as
winds were able to mostly stay clam, and many sheltered areas
cooled into the 20s. Temps will rise quickly once the wind mixes
down to the surface this morning, and will then become gusty
for much of the day. Otherwise no notable changes with this
update.

Previous...

A strong cold front moves through this afternoon, and is the
main driver of the weather for today. Temps briefly warm into
the low 60s through southern and coastal areas ahead of the
front early this afternoon. Further north, scattered showers
begin to arrive ahead of the front by mid morning. These look to
remain light, and dissipate before making much progress south
of the mountains. A more organized line of heavier showers
accompanies the front this afternoon. These showers also weaken
as they move southward, but some scattered showers likely hold
together to reach the coastline by this evening.

The main story with the front will be the gusty winds.
Northwesterly winds quickly pick up behind the front this
afternoon. A deepening low pressure center moving through
central Quebec brings a strong pressure gradient as high
pressure builds in from the west. A deep mixed layer with
increasingly dry air allows for gusty conditions by this
afternoon, but the strongest winds will mostly be overnight
tonight

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Northwesterly wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are likely across
through northwestern Maine. Where these strongest winds are
expected, a wind advisory has been issued. A few downed branches
and isolated power outages are possible. Elsewhere, winds will
still be quite gusty, with gusts of generally 40 to 45 mph
downing a few weak dead branches. Winds also don`t look to ease
overnight as they usually would on a diurnal cycle. The
increasing pressure gradient and mixing from the cold air
advection keeps the winds gusty through the overnight hours.

Colder air will also arrive overnight, with lows dropping into
the 20s across the north, and low to mid 30s expected south of
the mountains. Scattered upslope snow showers are expected
overnight through the Whites and near the Canadian border, but
with the dry airmass any light accumulating snow is expected to
be limited to peaks above 4000ft.

Winds remain gusty tomorrow morning, and then gradually begin
to ease through the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient
weakens and high pressure makes more progress into New England.
Mainly sunny skies are expected south of the mountains, while
northern areas see gradual clearing through the afternoon hours.
Temps will be much cooler than where they have been, but near
average with highs ranging from the upper 30s across the north,
to near 50 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Core of 500 MB jet continues to spend much of its time just
poleward of the intl border through the extended, with the cold
air mostly lock up in the Arctic Circle and Siberia. There will
be waves that move through that will keep temps fluctuating, but
the floor of the range is near normal, with the other end being
above normal, although not as extreme as the past few days. The
best chance of precip come with a compact, but energetic wave
that crosses east from the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday,
with a ridge building in behind it, which should keep things
dry for mid week, although a closed low is progged to lurk
offshore, so confidence is lower.

Fast moving trough will be exiting the CWA on Sat, but should
stay breezy through much of the day with Tds falling. Highs run
from 40-45 in the mtns to around 50 in the S, making for of the
colder days in the forecast. As the winds drop off late in the
day, should see at leas a partial rad cooling night in some
spots, and perhaps full in interior valleys. This will allow for
lows upper teens to low 20s in the mtns and generally mid 20s
to around 30 closer to the coast and in S NH.

Given the compact of the trough to our W on Sunday, ridging
should allow for a mostly to partly sunny day with highs in the
upper 40s N to the mid 50s S. The rain moves in Sun evening in
the W, and should push into the eastern zones shortly after
midnight. Could see several hours of steadier rain overnight
with lows in the low 30s to around 40, but temps rising after
midnight. Could see some snow mixing in in the mtns at the
start. We will break out into the warm sector on Monday, as
skies clear in the S and W during the afternoon and highs 50-55
in the mtns ranging up to the low to mid 60s in the S. The upper
level trough and cold front will cross Monday night, with a
chance of SHRASN, mainly in the mtns, and lows in the mid 30s to
low 40s N to S. Tue and Wed look dry and generally clear, with
temps returning to near normal. The next chance of showers will
be on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Gusty west-northwesterly winds are expected at all
terminals this afternoon through tomorrow morning, with gusts
of 25-30kt expected. These winds gradually ease tomorrow
afternoon. VFR conditions prevail at most terminals through
tomorrow, except at HIE where a period of marginal MVFR ceilings
is likely from late this afternoon through at least tomorrow
morning.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Sat and Sunday with some flight
restrictions in rain and low cigs Sunday night into part of
Monday. Then back to VFR for Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A strong cold front crosses the waters late this
afternoon. SCA conditions in westerly winds are expected ahead
of the front today, and then northwesterly gales arrive across
the outer waters and Penobscot Bay tonight through late tomorrow
morning. Winds gradually ease during the day tomorrow, but SCA
conditions continue into the late afternoon hours.

Long Term...SCA level winds likely to continue through the day
on Saturday, but should diminish Sat night, and stay low through
Sunday night. SW winds could push to near SCA levels on Monday,
and then switch to NW Mon night and Tuesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for MEZ007>009.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ150>152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs