046
FXUS61 KGYX 040236
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1036 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings mostly dry weather with increasing
temperatures and humidity into Thursday. A slow moving cold
front will approach from the north and west Thursday bringing
the chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. The front will stall near New England into the
weekend with waves of low pressure tracking along the front,
continuing chances for showers and a few storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...No significant changes to the going forecast.
Radiational cooling will continue to take place in susceptible
spots. Otherwise, mid and upper level smoke plume will continue
to move over the region tonight and provide for a milky sunshine
on Wednesday.

650 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Sunset
across western NH should be enhanced by high-altitude smoke
advecting in from the west. Otherwise, radiational cooling is
expected overnight with some patchy fog possible.

Previously...

Mostly sunny skies continue into the evening as high pressure
remains in the region. Clouds remain in the form of cirrus
tonight, thin enough to again let valleys radiate well. Temps
wont cool quite as much as last night, but lows in the mid 40s
can be expected for most inland valleys. Higher locales see
light breeze keep the low levels slightly mixed as mid and low
level temps gradually increase.

A few valleys may again develop fog late through daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...Hot
stretch of temperatures begins Wednesday as 850mb temps build
toward 16 or 17 C. Light mixing and close to full sun will warm
surface temps into the mid to upper 80s with some points close
to 90 through Wed afternoon.

Other than some passing cirrus, haze or smoke will be noticeable
in the skies above. This is from Canadian wildfire smoke that
has followed eastward movement of weather systems. Vantage
points from higher elevations may see visibility reduction.

Lows Wed night will be warmer yet, with values in the upper 50s
to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term forecast update...01z NBM has been blended into the
going forecast. Not too many changes in store other that to
lower PoPs a bit for showers and thunderstorms as forcing for
ascent lags to the west.

Previously...

The ridge holds for Thursday morning, keeping things sunny and dry
initially. However, a cold front will approach from the north and
west through the day, breaking the ridge down, and chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and evening
(maybe late morning across the north) as the front gets closer.
Models have trended slower in its approach, and with later arrival
and less clouds, temperatures have also trended upward on
temperatures with temps well ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s
away from the coast. It will also feel more humid with dewpoints
climbing into the lower-mid 60s, but the heat index values are
expected to remain shy of Heat Advisory criteria. For reference, if
Concord or Augusta reaches 90 on either Wednesday or Thursday, it
would be the first 90 degree day since August 2, 2024. For
Manchester, it would be the first 90 degree day since August 28,
2024.

Back to the showers and storms...highest chances (50-60%) are across
northern areas with chances lowering with southward extend to around
20-30% where there is drier air aloft and less forcing. There is
sufficient instability, and models are depicting 25-30kt of 0-6km
shear, which could allow a few strong to severe storms with hail and
damaging winds as the primary hazards. High PWATs (around 1.50")
could enable efficient rain rates as well, and will have to watch
for slow-moving cells. Some storms could last into the evening, but
a downward trend is expected with the loss of heating and the front
pushing to the east to allow for mostly dry conditions overnight.
However, fog and low stratus will be possible with mild temperatures
staying in the 50s and 60s.

The front remains in the picture Friday and Saturday with rain
chances remaining high along with a few storms during this
period as waves of low pressure move along it. The front is
expected to lift back north, but models continue to struggle in
how far and where the axis of the higher rain totals sets up.
The last couple runs of the operational GFS have trended much
farther north with highest QPF just north of the area while the
12Z ECWMF is pretty much right over and ME. Digging a little
deeper, the ensembles from the GFS have higher probabilities of
over an inch just over the border into Canada while the ECWMF is
right over the forecast area. So needless to say, amounts
remain uncertain as well as where the higher rain totals will
end up being.

Regardless of where the front sets up and what path the low takes,
there is pretty good consensus of these being east of the area going
into Sunday. This will bring a drying trend, although there could
still be a few lingering showers, especially if the upper trough is
yet to cross. Global models are then advertising another system
approaching early next week, but Monday may stay dry depending on
the speed of the system, but it looks like chances for showers
return by Monday night or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR with cirrus and mostly variable winds. Valley
fog may again develop in the CT River Valley near LEB and HIE
tonight.

Long Term...There may be fog or low stratus near the coast on
Thursday, but otherwise VFR for at least the first part of the
day as a cold front approaches. The front brings a chance for
showers and storms in the afternoon and evening, with the better
chances of these well inland and lower potential toward the
coast and farther south. These could bring IFR restrictions but
these are expected to diminish through the evening hours.
Overnight, could see IFR to LIFR due to fog and low stratus with
improvement through Friday morning. Additional rounds of
showers/storms are likely later in the day Friday through
Saturday as the front remains across the region, but details are
uncertain. Sunday should start seeing drying and improving
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions below SCA expected with high pressure in
the open Atlantic.

Long Term...Southerly flow continues Thursday as a cold front
approaches from the west/northwest. Increasing moisture is
expected to bring a return to fog over the waters with showers
also possible in the afternoon and evening hours. The front is
expected to linger somewhere over the area Friday into Saturday,
but it`s still uncertain where it will set up and where the low
pressure will track ...which will determine the wind
direction/speed. However, chances for SCA conditions are looking
low. The system exits to the east Sunday into Monday as high
pressure builds back in. Another system may approach the waters
around next Tuesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday
     for MEZ023>028.
NH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     NHZ013-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Combs
AVIATION...
MARINE...