Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
253 FXUS61 KGYX 122329 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 629 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A persistent northwest flow regime will bring chances for snow showers in the mountains most days while southern areas remain mostly dry into the end of the week. Unsettled weather arrives Sunday, bringing chances for rain and snow. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 630 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Moist cyclonic flow remains in place with plenty of clouds and scattered sprinkles flurries along with light winds. Previously... Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant weather impacts expected The shortwave trough that brought snow showers to portions of the area this morning is moving off to the east, bringing them to an end early this afternoon. Some sprinkles over the waters and islands are possible as the shortwaves pushes offshore, but a mostly dry afternoon and evening outside of the mountains is the expectation. Similar to yesterday, visible satellite is showing clouds beginning to break up downstream of the mountains leading toward more of a partly cloudy rest of the day as well. Snow showers and clouds will remain prevalent in the mountains tonight as broad troughing turns flow aloft back to the northwest. Blocked flow should keep areas downstream of the mountains dry. Low temperatures fall into the 20s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant weather impacts expected A trough deepens overhead Thursday with surface low pressure to our east. This will put us in northwest flow through the column, increasing forcing for upslope snow showers leading to good accumulations at the higher elevations. CAMs have been showing precipitation down into the Kennebec Valley during the afternoon, but Froude numbers are less than 0.5 suggesting flow is blocked. I have no problem leaving a chance of a shower in the forecast due to to the increased forcing, but I anticipate the models are overdoing it with the expected deep moisture and this is more likely just going to be cloud cover. Otherwise, a mostly dry day is expected outside of the mountains, with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Clouds and snow showers limit highs in the north to the mid to upper 30s. Deep northwest flow continues overnight as the trough continues to deepen as it moves offshore Thursday night. However, moisture will be trending down as the surface low continues moving east. This will slow upslope snow showers, but they likely continue in some capacity through the night. Flow remains blocked so the foothills and southern zones should remain dry. Low temperatures drop into the 20s areawide. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper-level low overhead will allow for cooler temperatures to start the day Friday. A light pressure gradient will allow for a light northwest breeze through the day. Instability and upslope flow on Friday should allow for the development of upslope snow showers in the mountains. Surface high pressure should bring a mostly dry day elsewhere. High temperatures look to range from the mid-30s in the north, to mid-40s along the Seacoast. Saturday also looks dry, with high pressure remaining in the area. Clouds increase Saturday afternoon as a low pressure system moves in from the northwest. The low arrives in New England by early Sunday morning, with many different precipitation types looking possible. Snow does appear to be the more dominant precipitation type further north and east, with more sleet, freezing rain and rain chances higher along the coast and across south-central New Hampshire. This is because as the low looks to move southeastward, it will overrun some colder air across NH and Maine. However, guidance also suggests secondary cyclogenesis could occur over the Gulf of Maine, which could prevent the warm layer associated with the aforementioned low to penetrate north and east of the White Mountains. The low should pass through the area quickly, with precipitation ending for most by Sunday night. Measurable snow is possible across northern NH and interior Maine, and a light glaze of ice is possible before a changeover to plain rain across southern New Hampshire. Early next week, a drying trend is expected, with a gradual warmup through the week. Breezy westerly winds look possible on Monday as a pressure gradient sets up behind Sunday`s system. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Similar to yesterday we have a mix of MVFR and VFR, but ceilings are breaking up downstream of the mountains and most terminal should end up VFR this evening. LEB and HIE go back to MVFR overnight as clouds and snow showers remain prevalent in the mountains. All terminals trend back toward MVFR tomorrow afternoon. Long Term...VFR expected Friday, though restrictions are possible at HIE Friday morning due to snow showers. VFR continues through the end of the day Saturday. A low moves through, bringing mixed precipitation, snow and rain, and will allow for significant restrictions Saturday night. Restrictions may improve to MVFR by the end of the day Sunday across southern NH and coastal areas due to a changeover to plain rain. However, lowered restrictions will remain through Monday morning. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds are dropping below SCA criteria this afternoon, with seas following tonight. Sub-SCA criteria is then expected through Friday. Westerly winds turn northwesterly Thursday afternoon. Long Term...Winds and seas stay mostly below SCA thresholds through the extended weekend. Winds will be out of the northwest Friday and Saturday. A brief period of SCA winds are possible over the open waters Friday night. Winds shift to southwesterlies by Sunday morning, gradually strengthening through the day and shifting to westerlies in the evening. Seas of 2-4ft expected Friday morning through Sunday night. Seas increase to 5-8ft by Monday morning as winds pick up from the northwest. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Baron/Ekster SHORT TERM...Baron LONG TERM...Palmer AVIATION... MARINE...