675
FXUS61 KGYX 170947
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
547 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes needed this morning as the forecast remains on track
for a dry and breezy day. Just updated the aviation discussion
for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Expect a seasonable and breezy day today with plenty of
sunshine. Widespread chances for showers and storms return
Saturday.

2. Seasonable summertime conditions expected into next week,
with another chance for widespread showers and storms Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

High pressure builds into the region through the day, but the
pressure gradient will be a bit slower to relax on the eastern
and northern portions of the forecast area. This will lead to
plenty of sunshine and some breezier northwest winds this
afternoon with some gusts up to 25 mph or so.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler today with highs expected to
be closer to seasonal averages for this time of year. Highs will
range from the mid 60s to lower 70s north, to the upper 70s and
lower 80s south and along the coast.

Winds will calm down tonight and if clear skies can hang around,
we may see some valley fog settle in overnight into Saturday
morning. Lows will mainly fall into the upper 40s to upper 50s.

We will transition back to southwest flow aloft on Saturday as
the next shortwave trough approaches and brings the next chance
of widespread showers and storms. We will be a little bit warmer
with highs in the lower 70s north, to the upper 70s and lower
80s across most of the Maine coast, to the mid/upper 80s over
southern New Hampshire. Combine these with widespread dewpoints
in the 60s and we will see some instability on the order of 500
to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE by the afternoon/evening hours. Many of
the regional models and in range CAMs suggest that we could see
multiple rounds of showers and storms through the day on
Saturday. Strong low level and deep layer shear will mean that a
few of these storms could become strong with gusty winds and
small hail. The NAEFS suggests PWATs will be in the 90th
percentile or greater for this time of year by late Saturday so
some heavy downpours will also be possible. Showers and storms
gradually start to diminish and move out overnight.

As a final note, the HRRR continues to bring some smoke aloft
back into portions of New Hampshire tonight, spreading to the
rest of the forecast area on Saturday. The HRRR also suggests
that some of this smoke could make it down to the surface so we
will have to watch those trends. Smoke could also impact
temperatures on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

It will dry out Sunday morning with another push of northwest
surface winds. Possibly some CAA terrain-induced showers across the
high terrain in the north, but generally looks like the more
enjoyable day of the weekend. A high pressure crests overhead on
Monday bringing more pleasant conditions and continued seasonable
temperatures.

Eyes then turn to Tuesday-Wednesday, as a slow moving, but deep
trough, digs into the Northeast. With some downstream ridging, this
may amplify the longwave trough while also slowing its forward
propagation. The result will be an extended period of deep SW
flow aloft. This will really transport in a juicy environment.
EPS and GEPS ensembles both show PWATs surging to 1.8-2.0
inches, which is quite a strong signal for this range on
ensemble guidance. In addition, some deterministic output is
suggesting robust IVT transport of up to 1000 kg/m/s. NBM mean
guidance is also indicating 1.0-1.5" of QPF across the region,
which some individual ensemble members that feature
significantly higher totals. All this is to say there will be
the potential for locally heavy rainfall in the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe, which may evolve in a few separate waves
of downpours.

Finally, still monitoring how much wildfire smoke will affect the
region into next week, as those Canadian wildfires are expected to
continue burning for the foreseeable future. It seems plausible
a stronger burst of northwest flow on Sunday will push the smoke
plume south of New England, but there is a potential it could
return north/overhead sometime next week with periods of
decreased air quality.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions to generally continue through tonight.
However, nighttime valley fog will also be possible,
potentially leading to scattered MVFR or lower visibilities in
the vicinity of LEB and HIE. Any fog should lift quickly on
Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday-Saturday night: Saturday begins VFR, but then chances
for MVFR to IFR restrictions increases later in the day along
with SHRA and possible TSRA. The higher chances for IFR (and
possibly lower) arrive Saturday evening into Saturday night.

Sunday: Conditions expected to return to VFR in the morning, except
lingering MVFR ceilings and SHRA possible at HIE.

Monday: VFR expected.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR to IFR possible with chances for SHRA
and a few TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect fair conditions to continue through tonight as broad high
pressure builds in.

Saturday-Thursday...Winds and seas will be on the increase on
Saturday with gales possible Saturday night ahead of a cold
front. The front crosses early Sunday morning, shifting winds
to W and NW. These will likely subside below gale and SCA
levels, but seas could stay above 5 ft much of the day. High
pressure builds in for Monday, keeping conditions under SCA
levels, and then the next front brings another chance at SCA
conditions toward the middle of next week (be Tues-Weds or Weds-
Thurs).

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
     for ANZ180-182.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Baron
DISCUSSION...Barker/Hargrove