526
FXUS61 KGYX 062318
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
618 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad low pressure over central Quebec will consolidate with
another surface low pressure developing towards the Bay of
Fundy tonight. The strength of these lows will create gusty
winds for the area Friday as well as the return to cooler
temperatures. Breezy conditions will continue this weekend as
the low resides to the north before exiting early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
615 PM Update...Issued a dense fog advisory for PWM northward to
the Midcoast and central ME as vsbys are a 1/4 mile or less in
this area. Mid level frontogenesis in association with an
approaching short wave trough is aiding in the development of
showers across eastern MA at this time, and these are expected
to move northward on and near the coastal plain this evening.
With tightening gradient in association with departing SFC low
in addition to the rain showers, the fog will likely thin out
in a few hours. However, it may last longer in central ME.

Previously...

Large low pressure system continues to drift NE across N
Quebec, while weak secondary low crosses the Gulf of ME.
Currently we sit in the warm sector /if not at the sfc, then
aloft at least/. Sfc cold front moves through this evening from
W to E, and will likely come through much of NH dry, but will
encounter some moisture pooling over the W and central ME, so
could set off a few SHRA early this evening there. The sfc low
to our E also deepens some overnight and slows, so this may
create some SHRA later this evening into the overnight, mainly E
of KPWM. Behind the front, winds shift to the W and will pick
up again. This should clear the fog from W-E over the course of
the evening. It also will likely change SHRA to SHSN in the mtns
later tonight, and may also see a brief period of snow over the
far E zones, although may just be some flakes falling with no
accums in many spots. The strongest winds will have to wait for
500 MB trough axis to swing through the area in the pre-dawn
into early Friday morning. Lows will fall off to near 20 in the
N, and to the mid to upper 20s in the S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, fast WNW flow through 500 MB will allow for a deep
mixing layer with close to 60 kts at the top of the mixing
layer, so should be able to mix down some gusts to around 50 mph
to the sfc during the day, and the wind advisory has been
issued. I think the best chance of the strongest winds in the W
and the S will be in the the morning, but may see a resurgence
of winds in the ME mtns later in the day. Either way strong wind
gusts are possible all day. Upslope clouds and SHSN will
continue in the mtns through the day with clearing in the S.
Highs range from the mid 20s N to the mid to upper 30s in the S,
so definitely cooler.

Winds will diminish some Friday evening, but it will still be
breezy overnight, with continued upslope clouds/SHSN. Lows range
from 10-15 in the mtns to the low to mid 20s in the S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface low pressure will reside over the Canadian Maritimes
this weekend with upper troughing across eastern Canada and
into the NE US, keeping the region under the influence of broad
cyclonic flow aloft. Occasional upslope snow showers will likely
continue in the mountains through most, if not all of the
weekend, and sufficient low-level moisture and unblocked flow
also suggest a chance of snow or rain showers south of the
mountains, especially Saturday with a shortwave aloft moving
through. Forecast soundings do show a bit of instability, so I
have gone a little cloudier than guidance.

Apart from the precip chances, it will be continue to be breezy with
winds coming down a notch by Sunday. Wind gusts on Saturday don`t
look quite as high as Friday but still 35 to 45 mph...although 40-45
kt at the top of the mixed layer suggest a few could approach 50
mph. By Saturday night and Sunday, we`re looking at more 25-30 mph
with the gradient relaxing. Cold advection will limit temps to the
upper 20s to mid 30s south of the mountains Saturday, but the brisk
winds will make it feel about 15 to 20 degrees colder. Temperatures
will recover a few degrees Sunday.

Going into next week, a clipper-like system could bring some light
precipitation on Monday. Temperatures might be cold enough to
support light snow if the system arrives early in the day or more of
a rain/snow mix later on, or even plain rain. We`ll see how trends
go, but regardless amounts look light whether it`s rain or snow.

Once this system passes, high pressure briefly builds overhead and
then shifts to the east toward the middle of the week as low
pressure quickly moves across southern Canada. The increasing
southerly flow ahead of the low and associated cold front will usher
in a warming trend toward the middle of next week with mostly dry
conditions Tues-Weds with guidance favoring keeping the bulk of
precip staying north of the area. The front crosses into the area
Wednesday and possibly stall out somewhere across the region into
Thursday, and depending on how far south the front progresses,
temperatures may not get as warm as currently forecast. So even
though a warming trend is forecast, there`s quite a large spread in
guidance on temperatures toward the middle of next week with the
uncertainty of this front. There`s good support in the ensemble
guidance on another chance of light precipitation Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Fog will diminish from W-E during the evening as
winds shift to the W and mixing picks up. KHIE will likely stay
mainly MVFR with tempo IFR in SHSN through the day Friday, while
everywhere will see VFR. Strong wind gusts to 35-45 kt will be
possible during the day on Friday, but should drop down to 20-25
kt Fri night.


Long Term...Mostly VFR Sat-Sun with W/NW winds gusting as high
as 35-40 kt Saturday and then 25-30 kt Saturday night and into
Sunday. This flow pattern suggests MVFR ceilings and snow
showers continue at times HIE with lesser but not zero chances
of rain or snow showers for other terminals. A weak disturbance
could bring additional precipitation Monday with restrictions
possible, but confidence in timing and details is low. VFR
returns Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...WNW gales expected from early Friday into Friday
night, although the bays will likely fall to SCA levels Fri
night. Gales may need to be continued into Saturday for the open
waters.

Long Term...Northwest gales remain possible Saturday,
especially over the outer waters. These could last into a
portion of Saturday night with SCA conditions taking over on
Sunday. A weak low pressure could cross the waters sometime on
Monday from west or northwest, but details in the track and
strength of the low is uncertain. High pressure briefly builds
in Monday night before it quickly exits to the east. This will
allow for increasing southerly flow (and possibly fog) through
the middle of next week with a front approaching around
Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028-033.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for MEZ013-014-
     019>022-024>028.
NH...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for NHZ001>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM Friday to 5 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150-
     152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Friday for ANZ151-153.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM EST Friday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Combs
AVIATION...
MARINE...