026
FXUS61 KGYX 181509
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1109 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Smoke makes a return south to north today, with clouds expected
much of the day. Have adjusted today`s temperatures down given
this outlook, also factoring in a round of showers early to mid
afternoon. Severe threat remains late afternoon to evening, but
aforementioned clouds and smoke could limit available
instability.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Low pressure and an approaching cold front will bring a
chance for rain and isolated strong to severe storms.

2. Potential for widespread downpours/thunderstorms Tuesday-
Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

The next shortwave and cold front approaches today, leading to
warm air advection through the morning and afternoon as we
transition back into southwest flow aloft. Most of the CAMs
suggest that we will see some early day showers across much of
the area, but the best chances appear to be across southern New
Hampshire and coastal Maine. Severe weather chances will
greatly depend on how quickly this activity moves out and how
much smoke returns from distant wildfires. As of now, forecast
highs generally range from the upper 70s north, to the 80s
south. The warmest temperatures should be over southern New
Hampshire and southwest Maine.

Later in the afternoon, we will likely see some redevelopment of
the early day showers and storms as well as new development
approaching from the west and north. The magnitude of
instability will be greatly dependent on cloud breaks. 00z HRRR
soundings over southern New Hampshire by late afternoon suggest
tall skinny CAPE profiles and plenty of shear. The HRRR also
suggests that the next slug of smoke will move through early in
the day with the highest concentrations likely over southern New
Hampshire, spreading to coastal and central Maine by the
afternoon hours. Thus, afternoon instability and temperatures
may be limited by a combination of early day convection and
smoke. Still, given the high shear setup, it won`t take much
instability for a few isolated storms to become strong to
severe. Strong winds would be the most likely threat but there
is a non-zero tornado threat over southern New Hampshire given
0-1 km shear around 30 knots and 0-1 km SRH in the 250 to 300
m2/s2 range. Additional storms will be approaching the north
from Quebec along the cold front around and after sunset, but
CAMs currently show this activity weakening as it moves into our
forecast area which makes sense as we lose daytime heating.
There may be a short window for a stronger storm or two in the
evening north. As a final note, PWATS will be in the 90th
percentile for much of the area with anamolous IVT so some
heavy downpours are also expected.

Most of the showers and storms will move out of the area by the
overnight hours. While we could see a few lingering showers in
the mountains on Sunday, most will see a dry day with cooler
temperatures behind the cold front. Highs are forecast to range
from 60s and lower 70s over the north country, to the mid/upper
70s across central New Hampshire and the Interior of Maine, to
the upper 70s/lower 80s over southern New Hampshire and coastal
Maine. Northwest winds will also be fairly gusty behind the cold
front on Sunday, potentially gusting up to 35 mph in the morning
and afternoon hours.

Additionally we have a very long period but smaller swell
affecting area beaches. This wave pattern will be complicated by
increasing southwest winds and resulting seas, but forecasts are
for high risk of rip currents this afternoon. Given that they have
occurred in the past couple of days and the forecast is indicating
it continues, I have issued a rip current statement for today.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A slow moving, but deep trough, digs into the Northeast. Deep
southwest flow aloft will really transport in a juicy
environment. Dynamics look decent with this system as a 995 mb
surface low slowly spins through Quebec, with some models
hinting at a secondary coastal low developing near New England
that would enhance moisture locally.

EPS and GEPS ensembles both show PWATs surging to 1.8-2.0 inches,
which is quite a strong signal for this range on ensemble guidance.
In addition, some deterministic output is suggesting robust IVT
transport. NBM mean guidance is still advertising a healthy
1.0-1.5" of QPF across the region, which some individual
ensemble members that feature significantly higher totals.

Will have to watch closely how much of the precipitation is
convective, given this is an environment primed for efficient
rainfall, and possibly a long-duration event. The best chances for
thunder will be Tuesday or Wednesday afternoon if we can
destabilize with any sunshine, but cannot rule out some
embedded convective elements overnight too given rather strong
dynamics. Do see a weak signal on CSU/CIPS for severe,
especially on Wednesday with models show up to 1000 J/Kg MUCAPE
developing.

Near seasonable temperatures should continue for the first half of
next week. This will really just be a period of above average lows,
and below average highs, given mostly cloudy skies and high dew
points in the 60s-low 70s. It remains to be seen if wildfire smoke
will have any tangible effects on temperatures, but given the
upstream fires over Canada will continue to burn, we will need to
keep an eye on air quality into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through tonight...VFR prevails through the morning, and then
restrictions are possible at all terminals during the afternoon
and evening hours under showers and thunderstorms. Due to timing
and coverage uncertainty, will utilize PROB30 groups for now.
Some valley fog is possible tonight, but otherwise VFR returns
once the showers and storms move offshore around midnight.

Outlook...

Sunday: Conditions expected to return to VFR in the morning,
except lingering MVFR ceilings and SHRA possible at HIE.

Monday: VFR expected.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR to IFR possible with increasing chances
for SHRA and a few TSRA.

Thursday: Becoming VFR after some morning showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds increase through the day ahead of an
approaching cold front. Gale force gusts are likely further
offshore, with high end SCA conditions likely across the coastal
waters and bays this afternoon into the nighttime. A few gusts
to 35kt are possible. Seas then take until at least Sunday
morning to lower below 5ft.

Sunday-Thursday...The front crosses early Sunday morning,
shifting winds to W and NW. Seas could stay above 5 ft much of
the day Sunday. High pressure builds in for Monday, keeping
conditions under SCA levels, and then the next front brings
another chance at SCA conditions toward the middle of next week
(be Tues-Weds or Weds- Thurs).

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028-033.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ023>027.
NH...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NHZ001>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ151-153.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ180-182.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barker/Cornwell/Hargrove