283
FXUS61 KGYX 020237
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1037 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides fair weather through Wednesday. Low
pressure will bring a period of snow to wintry mix to rain
across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure
returns Friday into Saturday. Another low pressure system will
bring another round of snow to wintry mix to rain Saturday night
into Sunday. A drying trend follows Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update... Mainly clear skies prevail at this hour with
just some passing cirrus from time to time. The main question
overnight continues to be whether the sheltered valleys
decouple, as low dew points will provide a low floor for
overnight lows should this occur. Did lower forecast values a
little in some of these locations.

Previously...
700 PM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends. Wind gusts will continue to gradually lower through this
evening but most locations will likely remain mixed through most
of the overnight. It will otherwise continue to be a mainly
clear and chilly first evening of April.

Previously...
Skies remain mostly clear going into tonight and winds will stay
somewhat breezy this evening but then lessen overnight as high
pressure starts to settle in. Winds don`t look quite as light as
they did a couple of days ago and may stay up enough to keep things
mixed. So I haven`t gone as cool as MOS, except I did blend in
cooler guidance in some of the more sheltered valleys. Some high
clouds moving in may also act in limiting the cooling potential.
Lows are mostly in the 20s but could fall into the teens where winds
drop off and skies stay mostly clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday starts with partly-mostly sunny skies in the morning
with high pressure overhead, but this will shift east in the
afternoon as low pressure approaches the Great Lakes. Mid and
high clouds continue to fill in through the afternoon with skies
becoming mostly cloudy as cloud bases lower and thicken , but
dry air in the low-level should keep most dry through the way,
except NH may start seeing a few snow flakes toward sunset. High
temperatures will be mostly in the 40s, but an early sea breeze
could limit the coast to the upper 30s.

12Z meso models are in relatively good agreement with what the
global models have been depicting the last couple of days with
widespread precipitation overspreading the region Wednesday
evening into the overnight hours before tapering off late
Thursday morning and the afternoon from west to east. This will
be initially snow for most of the area followed by a period of
mixed precipitation as a warm air aloft works into the region.

Southern and coastal areas could still see a brief period of
sleet and freezing rain, but guidance is favoring surface temps
gradually warming from south to north to change p-type to just
rain prior to peak morning commute time with the Midcoast
possibly holding on longer. However, this will need to be
closely monitored.

Central and northern NH and from the foothills northward in ME
are favored to see a more prolonged period of mixed precipitation
that could continue during the morning commute and make for
slick roads and hazardous travel. These areas are forecast to
see a few inches up snow, a quarter to half inch of sleet, and
over a tenth of an inch of ice accretion with ice totals
increasing going up in elevation with over a quarter inch of ice
possible. I do think there is some potential for the depth of
the cold air in the low levels to be enough to refreeze
hydrometeors before hitting the surface. This would end up
resulting in more sleet than freezing rain in the lowest
elevations...but is of low confidence. The ice forecast carries
a limited power outage risk but could become more elevated
should the wind forecast trend upward.

The primary swath of precipitation is expected to shift to
the east and out of the area from late Thursday morning and
through the afternoon hours...leaving just a chance of rain
showers the rest of the day as the cold front approaches. Skies
remain mostly cloudy but increasing southerly flow will allow
temperatures to continue to climb. There might be quite the
gradient across the region with southern NH reaching the 50s to
low 60s while northern and eastern areas stay in the 40s.
However, temps in the 40s across the north will still help melt
the wintry precip that falls Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM Long Term Update... A trailing cold front will cross
Thursday evening, bringing an end to the precipitation across
the region. High pressure then looks to build across New England
on Friday and Friday night with mainly dry conditions. A triple
point low then will move across the Ohio River Valley on
Saturday before moving over the region on Sunday. This will
result in overrunning precipitation across the area beginning
Saturday afternoon through at least part of Sunday. There could
be just enough cold air in place for some of this to fall as
snow across the interior and mtns with some mixed wintry
precipitation also possible. Cooler conditions are then possible
behind this system for early next week.

Previously...
Overview: Northern New England will be positioned between ridging
off the Southeast Coast and a trough digging south through central
Canada going into this weekend. Surface high pressure likely keeps
the area mostly dry Friday through Friday night. The digging trough
will result in a baroclinic zone developing west of New England
through the lower Ohio Valley. Waves of low pressure will track
along this baroclinic zone bringing bouts of precipitation Saturday
through Monday. Thermal profiles will support snow/wintry mix to
start across northern areas late Saturday with temperatures rising
above freezing everywhere Sunday leading to mainly rain. Colder air
will work into the region as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast
Sunday night into Monday. This will bring chances for snow across
the north late Sunday night into Monday.

Impacts: Snow to a wintry mix could bring slick travel across
northern areas late Saturday through Saturday night.

Details: A cold front will be moving offshore Thursday night while
the core of the cold air will remain north of the forecast area.
This will allow for mild conditions Friday with highs ranging from
the mid 40s north to mid 60s across southern NH and mostly fair
skies. High pressure will crest over the region Friday night
allowing for temperatures to drop into the 20s to low 30s.

A wave of low pressure will approach from the eastern Great Lakes
Saturday with precipitation likely overspreading the area Saturday
afternoon. Ensembles indicate that this will be an over running
precipitation event with at least areas from the White Mountains to
points east and north seeing a period of snow to a wintry mix
Saturday night. Have stuck to rain and snow wording in the forecast
with the inherent uncertainty of mixed precipitation at this time
range. The synoptic setup does not favor cold air damming and given
the time of year temperatures are favored to climb well above
freezing Sunday. The going forecast calls for precipitation to be
mainly rain across the area by day break Sunday.

Chances for rain will continue through the day Sunday into Sunday
night. The trough off low pressure over central Canada will start to
swing into the Northeast Sunday night into Monday. This will allow
for enough cold air to work into the region for precipitation to
change to snow in the mountains and north. Although, by this time
the best moisture will be shifting south of the area resulting in
light QPF. Troughing lingers over the Northeast through the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR through tonight and Wednesday with high
pressure in control. Gusty NW winds ease this evening into
tonight. Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions likely Wednesday
night and Thursday as low pressure brings a mix of wintry
precipitation through the area. Timing of each precip is still a
bit in question, but light snow is expected initially, followed
by a period of sleet and freezing rain before changing to rain.
The period of mixed precip is expected to be of shorter
duration across southern and coastal areas than farther inland.
Steadier precip ends Thursday afternoon with ceilings
potentially improving to MVFR across NH and more likely staying
IFR in ME.


Long Term...Mainly VFR Friday into Saturday morning. Waves of
low pressure brings a brief period of a wintry mix late Saturday
changing to rain Saturday night with rain continuing through
Sunday. Periods of IFR to LIFR will be possible late Saturday
through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...North to northwest winds remain above SCA levels
tonight over the outer waters but look to fall below 25 kt by
daybreak Wednesday. However, the SCA has been extended due to
seas staying above 5 ft through the afternoon. South to
southeast winds increase Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front
approaches. SCA conditions are likely, and a period of gales is
possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Long Term...Winds shift out of the west Thursday night with gusts to 25
kts until Friday morning. High pressure builds over the waters
Friday with winds and seas likely dropping below SCA thresholds by
Friday afternoon. Waves of low pressure will track across New
England this weekend with winds and seas approaching SCA thresholds
by Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ151.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ153.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Schroeter/Tubbs