894
FXUS61 KGYX 042332
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
632 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern is expected through the week, with
multiple fronts bringing periods of rain and mountain snow.
Windy conditions are expected today in the wake of a cold front.
Power outages are possible. Another system with rain/snow
showers and gusty winds will move through mid-week, with
additional systems expected Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM Update...Have dropped the wind advisory as winds continue
to diminish. Have also issued a high wind watch for southernmost
NH for tomorrow night as an impressive short wave trough and
attendant low pressure system moves across New England while
intensifying. This coupled with an impressive rise/fall couplet
may portend to a couple hour period of westerly 50 to 60 MPH
gusts there. The rest of the forecast area may need a wind
advisory.

Previously...

Impacts and Key Messages:
* Gusty to locally strong winds continue through the afternoon,
  before tapering off overnight.

At the time of this writing, many locations are seeing frequent
gusts 30-40 knots, with a few like PWM, PSM, and MHT that have
already seen gusts in excess of 40 kts. These gusts will
continue through the afternoon before tapering off tonight. We
should stay mixed enough to keep low temperatures from tanking,
but you can still expect them to drop into the upper 20s and low
30s to the north, and into the low to mid 30s to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Gusty to locally strong winds are expected to develop
  overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
* Accumulating snow may make for slippery roads Wedensday night
  and early Thursday morning in northern New Hampshire and the
  Western Maine Mountains.

Wednesday looks to start dry as shortwave ridging develops
overhead. As the morning goes on and flow becomes southwesterly,
clouds will quickly thicken with most of the area overcast by
the afternoon. This results in high temperatures being limited
to the low to mid 50s south of the mountains, and to the low to
mid 40s to the north. This warm air advection likely allows a
line of light showers to form and cross the area during the late
morning and early afternoon.

Attention then turns to a strengthening low pressure system
approaching the area. Rain/snow showers will continue in the
mountains, but the rest of the area will see a dry late
afternoon/early evening before the bulk of the precipitation
arrives. Areas south of the mountains remain in the warm sector
of this storm and can expect an all rain event. PWATs are
modeled around 0.75 inches so rain is expected to be mostly
light, especially in southern New Hampshire and the coastal
plain where it may end up being more showery as the center of
the low takes an inside track. These southern areas may only see
a quarter inch or less of rainfall, where as the interior and
foothills look to end up closer to the half inch mark with the
steadier rainfall. Northern New Hampshire and Northwestern Maine
look to get the most out of this system, but it won`t be all
rain. The low deepens as it moves overhead Wednesday night,
pulling in colder air and lowering snow levels. It looks likely
that valley locations may see their first accumulating snow as a
result. Looking at bufkit soundings, there is some decently
negative Omega through the snow growth zone so potential for
significant accumulations on the higher peaks is looking good.
The limiting factor for the lower elevations and valleys is
going to be how quickly snow levels drop, but a slippery morning
commute with around an inch of slushy snow is not out of the
question for northern locations. Overall much of the area looks
to be dry, or having showers taper off, shortly after sunrise
Thursday.

The other impact with this system is going to be wind. As the
low deepens overhead Wedensday night winds aloft look to
increase to generally around 50kts near the base of the trough,
and in a well mixed environment on the backside of the front
this would support gusts 45-50 mph making it likely a portion of
the area will need at least wind advisories once again (most
likely south of the mountains). Models are also hinting at the
development of a low level sting jet nearing 60-70kts around the
New Hampshire/Massachusetts border. This could result in
locally higher gusts in southern New Hampshire, but the
confidence is not there to put that in the grids. Overall, since
current wind hazards are still up, I didn`t add any additional
ones and I will give a chance for the next shift have a look at
it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deepening low moves offshore Thursday morning, with pressure
rises expected as high pressure approaches from the west.
Incoming high pressure will allow for a tight pressure gradient
to loosen through the day, allowing for gusty winds in the
morning to simmer by the end of the day. Northwest winds will
channel a cold air mass into the area, with highs ranging from
the mid-30s expected north of the mountains, up to the lower 50s
along the coastal plain. Morning upslope snow is possible on
the northern slopes of the White Mountains, though increasing
froude numbers through the day should taper off any remaining
flurries by mid-day Thursday.

High pressure overhead Thursday night and tomorrow morning will
allow for a particularly chilly nigh. High pressure overhead
will keep cloud cover limited and winds calm. This will trigger
radiational cooling, allowing for lows to bottom out Thursday
night. In the mountains, lows in the teens are likely with
mid-20s along I- 95 and across southern NH.

Winds pick up from the southwest Friday morning as a shortwave
moves in from the northwest. The shortwave is likely to arrive
by the end of the day Friday and bring measurable precipitation
to the area. Accumulating light snowfall in locations north of
the mountains is also possible. The system exits the region by
Saturday afternoon.

A brief break in weather is expected Saturday evening and into
Sunday morning. Sunday morning, another shortwave over the Great
Lakes and a low pressure system over the Piedmont may merge,
allowing for a slow strengthening trend in low intensity as it
heads into New England. On arrival, the aforementioned low`s
minimum pressure should stay weak and above 1000mb, which will
limit gusty wind potential within the system. Most winds will
also be out of the southwest, though some initial northeast
winds may pose a limited coastal flooding threat if the winds
coincide with Sunday`s elevated astronomical high tides.
However, this does not appear to be the case at this time and
the high tide and onshore winds should be at different times.

Precipitation-type will likely be rain or snow, as 850mb
temperatures are equal to or below surface temperatures. ECMWF
and GFS ensembles have the rain/snow line positioned in the
foothills, with snow potentially reaching as far south as K1P1,
KLEW and western Kennebec county. Precipitation accumulations
should be on the lighter side, and though accumulating snow may
be possible north of the mountains, lighter snowfall rates
should prevent snow from becoming impactful.

As the aforementioned low departs the area Monday morning, a
pressure gradient will setup and allow for gusty northwest
winds; this will lead to a chilly remainder of early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Generally VFR skies tonight and Wednesday.
Wednesday evening ceilings will begin to lower as a strong low
pressure system approaches the area. This system will bring rain
to much of the area and snow to the mountains Wednesday night
which may bring about brief IFR visibilities to some terminals.
Wind gusts taper off after 00Z tonight, and remain calmer
through the day Wednesday. However, they will ramp back up
overnight Wednesday with frequent gusts 30-40kts at most
terminals.

Long Term...Restrictions are likely with rain and snow showers
Thursday morning. Restrictions will improve through the
remainder of the day, with VFR expected Thursday night through
mid-day Friday. A shortwave moves through the area Friday
afternoon and into Saturday, allowing for lower restrictions
through this time frame. Conditions briefly improve Saturday
night and Sunday morning before restrictions lower again as a
low pressure system moves across the region, bringing rain and
snow to northern New England.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gales continue into tonight with gusts staying
above 25kts and wave heights above 5ft into tomorrow morning. We
then get a brief break from SCA conditions during the day
Wednesday before a strong low pressure system approaching the
area quickly ramps winds back up to gale force, and seas back up
to 5+ feet. Winds gusts may even briefly approach storm force
early Thursday morning.

Long Term...Gale force northwesterly winds are expected
Thursday, with 4-8ft seas. SCA issuance likely. Winds and seas
slacken through the day Thursday, bottoming out Friday morning.
They then pick back up to SCA thresholds by Friday afternoon,
with winds out of the south this time. Seas rise to 5-8ft by
Saturday morning. Marine conditions gradually improve through
the day Saturday, though conditions early next week could be
flirting back and forth between non-SCA and SCA conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Very high Astronomical high tides later this week will need to
be watched for minor coastal flood potential. Currently window
of concern could be Saturday with the potential of strong
southerly onshore flow and a 11.5ft MLLW tide at Portland
expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     morning for NHZ011>015.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ150>154.
         Gale Warning from midnight Wednesday night to noon EST
     Thursday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Palmer