875
FXUS61 KGYX 121507
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1107 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high will be in place through the weekend bringing
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms today, mainly away
from the coast. Drier conditions on Sunday, before a return to
showers and thunderstorms the beginning of next week. Heat will
begin to build by the middle of the next week once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11am Update...Quick update to adjust shower chances this
morning. Did have one long lived cell produce heavy rainfall
(around 2" per hour rates) through portions of eastern Oxford
County and Androscoggin County this morning. It also had a fair
amount of lightning at one point, but vertically integrated ice
has fallen off with just a few strikes/pulses over the past
half hour. Going forecast still supports isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorm development across mainly NH and far
western ME this afternoon. Given the moist environment, slow
moving cells will continue to bring the threat for localized
lowland flooding where storms may repeat.

8 AM: Fog lifting this morning into thick stratus, particularly
in the coastal plains. Overnight moisture produced a few light
showers, but generally looking at only a stray shower for the
first half of the day, followed by isolated to scattered showers
this afternoon. Clouds will be a big factor in keeping
temperatures moderate south of the mountains today.

Previously...
Radar early this Saturday morning is tracking slow moving albeit
weakening thunderstorms streaming from east-southeast from VT
into north-central NH. Lightning activity has been on the
decline with a notable lowering in core heights, likely due in
part to decreasing MLCAPE as pictured on the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. Will need to continue to watch for some ongoing
training as a few rain gauges have received localized amounts
over 1"/hr but currently the hydro threat is low. Fog, some
dense continues over areas south of the mountains and this will
be the theme through early this morning. Current temperatures
are into the 60s and lower 70s with little in the way of
additional cooling expected through sunrise.

Surface high pressure will drift to the east today but mid-level
ridging will begin to build across the region. Latest hi-res
guidance indicates that a narrow ribbon of increased mid-level
vorticity will cross this afternoon, coinciding with moderate
daytime instability but weak deep layer shear. Therefore, a few
pulse showers and thunderstorms are possible but the severe
threat is low. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with high
temperatures into the 70s across most of western ME with lower
to middle 80s in NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will hold south of Nova Scotia tonight
into Sunday. Any convection across the interior will likely
diminish with the loss of heating. Onshore flow will likely lead
to marine stratus and fog to push inland again. Lows will
mainly be in the 60s across the area.

A slow moving cold front will be moving east across the Great Lakes
Sunday while high pressure looks to keep the area mostly dry. Low
clouds may be stubborn to clear along the coastal plain while a
tightening gradient will help to scatter clouds in the afternoon.
Highs will climb into the 80s across much of NH and far interior
western Maine. Onshore flow and stubborn cloud cover may keep
much of western ME south of the mountains into the 70s for
highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long Term Update...No significant changes noted in the latest NBM
other than a slight uptick in PoPs on Monday as a weakening cold
front enters the area. Latest guidance continues to suggest
sufficient instability will develop for thunderstorms while deep
layer shear will be lacking. The lack of shear and forcing being on
the weak side will limit the severe threat on Monday, while PWATs
climbing to around 2 inches will bring the threat of torrential
rainfall. Thereafter, heat looks to build through mid week with
highs into the low 90s.

Previously...

Overview: High pressure continues to drift NE of the forecast
area Sunday night. A mature low pressure system centered over
southern Hudson Bay will bring the next weather system through
northern New England in the form of a cold front Monday. Behind
the front, drier conditions settle in through midweek, but a
return to very warm or hot temperatures is likely.

Details:
A warm front lifting north will assist in scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the western ME mountains and NW NH through
Sunday night. Increasing clouds and fog could help temps from
falling too much overnight, hovering in the upper 60s to around
70 for southern NH.

Monday, fog dissipates through the morning hours as the cold
front slowly makes its way through the forecast area. While it
will act as a lifting feature, overall strength will be waning
as it nears the coast. Combined with limited shear through the
column, strong to severe storms look unlikely at this point. If
clouds thin enough for decent surface heating to take place,
could see storms with thin updrafts develop through the
afternoon.

Attention then turns towards increasing temperatures midweek.
While IQR ranges continue to tighten, there remains some
refinement in daytime highs as well as how much low level
moisture will be in the vicinity for added humidity. Today`s
forecast brings temperatures for Tues/Wed/Thurs a few degrees
below heat headline criteria for much of the area. Greater
confidence in a three day stretch of hot temperatures is in far
southern NH at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR CIGS may linger though through at least some
of the afternoon at coastal and eastern TAF sites including
KPSM, KPWM, KAUG, and KRKD. Widely scattered SHRA/-TSRA is also
possible this afternoon, mainly across interior NH terminals.
Low clouds and FG return tonight, bringing additional
restrictions. Conditions will then once again slowly improve on
Sunday. No LLWS is anticipated outside of any TSRA.

Long Term...Similar pattern will continue with IFR ceilings
returning Sunday night into Monday. Fog may also restrict
visibility. Ceiling restrictions may improve to MVFR during the
day. Southern NH terminals may escape IFR restrictions Monday
night, but much of southern ME could see another night of low
stratus and coastal fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Wind and seas to remain below SCA criteria through
the period. Marine fog will continue to bring visibility
restrictions across the waters, especially at night.

Long Term...Conditions remain below SCA through the period.
Onshore flow dominates through early next week, with a weak cold
front approaching the coast Tuesday morning.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cornwell/Schroeter