271
FXUS61 KGYX 220618 CCA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gray ME
218 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A cold front crossing this afternoon will bring chances for
scattered thunderstorms. A few storms may become strong to severe
with gusty winds and possibly some hail.

2. Dry weather prevails Thursday through the weekend under high
pressure. Shower chances increase early next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

The warm front that brought last night`s rain fall will be into
northern Maine this morning with the forecast area within the warm
sector of an area of low pressure over Quebec. Overcast skies early
this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies by mid day. Surface
heating combined with dew points in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees
will allow for surface based CAPE to build to over 1500 J/kg ahead
of an approaching cold front. CAMs are in decent agreement that the
front will cross the mountains early afternoon and will push
offshore this evening. Deep layer shear around 35 kts in
combination sufficient instability will allow for at least
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon along the front with some
storms capable of becoming strong to severe with gusty winds and
hail. CAMs continue to show very dry air above 700 mb that will
be hostile to updrafts so coverage will likely be limited for
storms. CAMs generally favor the mountains/foothills of Maine
towards central Maine for the best chances for storms with some
chances extending southwestward through coastal Maine.
Thunderstorms will likely be pushing offshore around 6 PM.


KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

High pressure builds over the Northeast Thursday in the wake of
Wednesday cold front. A cooler and drier airmass will be in
place with highs ranging from the low 70s north to low 80s and
dew points in the 40s and 50s. Pleasant weather will continue
through the weekend with highs moderating into the low to mid
80s and afternoon sea breezes likely along the coast. Ensembles
show troughing will deepen over the Northeast Monday into the
middle of next week that will favor more in the way of shower
chances.



&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...SHRA have pushed east of AUG/RKD with
low cigs and fog bringing IFR/LIFR conditions from CON and MHT
to TAFs sites east. HIE and LEB will likely remain MVFR. There
will be varying rates of improvement towards 12Z with VFR
becoming more likely after 12Z. Mainly VFR through Wednesday
night with a cold front bringing chances for TS from 18Z to 22Z.
Coverage will be too limited to put in the TAF but TEMPO
restrictions cannot be ruled out.

Outlook...
Thursday-Sunday: Generally VFR conditions are expected as high
pressure settles over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves will be on a downward trend today while they will still
remain at or above 5 feet into Thursday morning. Steady south
winds with gusts to 25 kts will continue today before a cold
front crosses this evening shifting winds offshore with lighter
gusts. Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds Thursday
afternoon through the weekend under high pressure.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for MEZ026-027.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schroeter