750
FXPQ50 PGUM 031945
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
545 AM ChST Fri Sep 4 2026

.Marianas Update...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be
possible through tonight across the Marianas with the potential for
numerous showers to return on Saturday. Moderate to locally fresh
southwest winds will continue today and start ease tonight, becoming
mostly gentle on Saturday. Gusts up to 25 knots will be possible
today and may linger into tonight. Combined seas of around 7 to 9
feet will continue today and begin to diminish starting tonight,
dropping a foot or so each day this weekend. Hazardous surf and high
rip current risk will continue along west-facing reefs today. A High
Surf Advisory and a High Rip Current Risk statement remain in effect
through 4 PM this afternoon along west-facing reefs. Thereafter,
surf will likely fall below hazardous levels and the rip current risk
is also expected to fall to moderate as the westerly swells wane.
Otherwise, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue along north
and south-facing reefs through at least tonight.

&&

.Tropical Systems Update...
Invest 97W was upgraded to medium by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) yesterday evening, meaning that development into a
significant tropical cyclone (tropical depression) is likely but
expected to occur beyond 24 hours. The disturbance is located around
19N138E this morning and is expected to lift to the north-northwest
over the coming days as it becomes better organized. For more
information on Invest Area 97W, please refer to the Tropical
Significant Weather Advisory from JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia Update...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through at
least tonight for Pohnpei and Kosrae with drier conditions prevailing
at Majuro. Light to gentle winds will prevail at all forecast points
for the next couple of days. Combined seas of 4 to 5 feet today will
possibly drop a foot or so over the next couple of day at Kosrae and
Pohnpei with seas of 3 to 4 feet expected at Majuro.

&&

.Western Micronesia Update...
Drier weather is expected through at least tonight with shower
coverage topping out at 30 percent. Isolated thunderstorms will also
be possible. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will
gradually ease today and tonight at Palau and Yap, becoming mostly
gentle on Saturday. Light north to northwest winds will prevail today
at Chuuk and become light to gentle west to northwest winds on
Saturday. Latest altimetry pass showed combined seas of 6 to 7 feet
at Yap and this is expected to drop a foot or two through tonight.
Combined seas of generally 3 to 5 feet will then persist at all
forecast sites through the weekend.

&&

.Prev discussion... /issued 601 PM ChST Thu Sep 3 2026/

Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite and radar show mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers
moving through the Marianas and the surrounding coastal waters. The
buoys are still under repair, however a nice altimetry pass just to
our west shows combined seas 6 to 8 feet.

Discussion...
As a newly-formed tropical disturbance Invest 97W (which replaced
former Invest 95W) continues to move away from the region to the
northwest, the enhanced monsoon surge that was expected to develop
across the Marianas is not likely to return anytime soon. As such,
intense rainfall and significant gusty winds are no longer expected
at this time, so the Special Weather Statement was allowed to expire.
However, a generally moderate southwesterly monsoon pattern will
continue to bring patchy showers and some thunderstorms through
Friday night, followed by a momentary resurgence in convection at a
leading edge of the monsoon trough and embedded col that may bring
numerous and potentially heavy showers Saturday and Saturday night.
Conditions will then improve considerably thereafter, with a dry
spell to ensue around Labor Day.

Marine...
Combined seas of 7 to 9 feet will persist through Friday, to then
taper down slowly over the weekend as westerly swells and localized
wind waves diminish further. Hazardous surf and high rip current
risk is expected along west facing reefs of the Marianas through
Friday afternoon. As such, a High Surf Advisory and a High Rip
Current Risk Statement remain in effect for west facing reefs of the
Marianas. After, surf is expected to drop below hazardous levels,
along with rip current risk falling to moderate as westerly swells
diminish. Elsewhere, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected to
persist along north and south facing reefs of the Marianas tonight.

Tropical Systems...
Tropical Storm Krovanh 22W has moved out of the WFO Guam Area of
Responsibility and will no longer be mentioned in the Area Forecast
Discussion unless it comes back into the WFO Guam AOR, which the
forecast track makes a loop that brings it quite close, so a brief
visit cannot be ruled out at this time.

Invest Area 95W has become one with the general monsoon flow. In its
place, a new circulation, Invest Area 97W, has sprung up. 97W is
currently rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as having a LOW
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. The
possibility is there, but it`s not all that high, and it will likely
take more than 24 hours. For more information on Invest Area 97W,
please refer to the Tropical Significant Weather Advisory from the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW.

Eastern Micronesia...
A weak westerly monsoonal flow continues over eastern Micronesia with
an convergence in the flow expected to increase rainfall over Pohnpei
and Kosrae for the next two days. Winds for all islands will stay
light to gentle through the end of this week. Majuro remains on the
fringe of this flow and is expected to stay fairly dry the rest of
the week and into Saturday. By Sunday the westerlies look to
restrengthen and shift north over Majuro, bringing increased
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms and potentially gusty
winds. The increased monsoonal moisture and elevated winds may also
reach all the way to Kosrae and Pohnpei but this remains less
certain. Seas are highest around Pohnpei and Kosrae at 4 to 5 ft and
are expected to gradually decrease going into the weekend. Seas at
Majuro are quite low and won`t increase until Sunday at the earliest
as the monsoon flow strengthens.

Western Micronesia...
A tropical high and associated ridge continue to bring a dry spell
across western Micronesia for the rest of the week. At Palau and Yap,
mostly dry conditions expected, with briefly low-end scattered
showers near midnight tonight at Yap. At Chuuk, patchy showers are
expected to briefly return Saturday and Saturday night, to then
slowly taper down thereafter as the previously mentioned tropical
high settles nearly overhead by early next week.

Combined seas of 3 to 4 feet near Palau, are expected to remain as
such for much of the forecast period. Combined seas of 4 to 5 feet
near Yap and Chuuk will slowly taper down a few feet by the weekend
as westerly swells and local winds diminish.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for GUZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas/East and West Micronesia/Tropical Update: Whisnant
Marianas: Stanko/Montvila East Micronesia: Ogle West Micronesia:
Montvila Tropical: Stanko