207
FXPQ50 PGUM 080903
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
703 PM ChST Mon Dec 8 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle to moderate northeasterlies prevail across the region. Doppler
radar indicates light passing showers in the Guam and Rota waters.
Buoys show seas are about 5 to 7 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
As a quieter trade-wind regime continues through Tuesday, descending
shearline fragments from the north are expected to bring breezy
conditions with low-end scattered showers around midweek. Once these
fragments dissipate or get carried downstream, drier diffusive flow
will return to the Marianas.

&&

.Marine...
Multiple northerly swells have weakened enough to allow surf to drop
below hazardous levels along north facing reefs of the Marianas,
which in turn, also allows the rip current risk to drop to moderate
along said reefs. As such, the High Surf Advisory and High Rip
Current Risk Statement were allowed to expire earlier this afternoon.
Combined seas of 6 to 7 feet are expected to occasionally go up a
foot through Wednesday night, to then potentially increase another
few feet as shearline fragments shift southward into the Marianas. A
moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north and east facing
reefs of the Marianas for at least the next few days, before surf
becomes hazardous once again along north facing reefs in the second
half of the week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite this evening shows a mostly dry trade-wind pattern across
the region, with isolated showers and partly cloudy skies seen over
Pohnpei, Kosrae, and Majuro. Southwest of Pohnpei and Kosrae, a band
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is seen, focused
along the NET which extends east-southeast into the region from over
Chuuk State, and supported by a broad upper-level low centered
northeast of the RMI. Showers will increase slightly near Majuro
around Tuesday night and Wednesday as a weak trough moves in from
across the Date Line, but otherwise conditions look to remain mostly
dry throughout the week. Models depict a more robust trough moving
into the region this coming weekend, increasing showers mainly over
the RMI. The upper-level low supporting the showers and
thunderstorms southwest of Pohnpei and Kosrae looks to gradually
shift east and exit the region by the end of the week.

Buoys and altimetry data indicate combined seas of around 8 to 9 feet
near Pohnpei, Kosrae, and Majuro. Latest buoy data and model guidance
depict a decreasing trend as north swell and the background trade
swell diminish throughout the week, and the High Surf Advisory has
been cancelled for Pohnpei, Kosrae, and Majuro. Likewise, the Small
Craft Advisory was cancelled for Pohnpei. Winds look to stay gentle
to moderate throughout the week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A fairly dry trade regime continues across much of western
Micronesia, with only isolated showers seen near Chuuk, Yap, and
Koror coastal waters this afternoon. A little further south of these
forecast points, Himawari visible satellite imagery shows scattered
showers extending across eastern Yap State and western Chuuk State,
along a segment of the Near-Equatorial Trough (NET), but remaining
southwest to south of Weno coastal waters, and east to southeast of
Palau and Yap Proper. Models depict the NET meandering southward over
the next day or so, with only isolated showers expected until around
Tuesday night, where Probability of Precipitation (PoP) was
increased to 30 percent for Yap and Palau as troughing and
convergence increase along the western periphery of the NET just
south of Koror. Scattered showers look to continue over Palau through
midweek before the NET axis retreats further south in the latter
half of the week. Trade-wind troughs propagating westward through
the region north of the NET will occasionally interrupt the dry
trade regime, with another period of scattered showers or two
expected this weekend.

Altimetry data from this morning indicates combined seas around 4 to
6 feet near Palau and Yap, increasing up to 7 to 9 feet just west of
Chuuk. The higher seas near Chuuk are likely associated with the
pulse of long-period north swell that is passing through the region,
combined with the elevated trade swell, but these swells will
continue to subside through the next few days allowing surf to fall
below hazardous levels of 9 feet, and the High Surf Advisory for
north-facing reefs of Chuuk was allowed to expire at 5 PM ChST. The
marine forecast remains fairly steady through the rest of the week
as the northeast trade swell remains dominant, with seas diminishing
slightly for Palau and Chuuk before coming back up by a foot or so
this weekend. Winds will be light to moderate for Palau and Chuuk
throughout the forecast period, staying mostly moderate for Yap.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Montvila
East/West Micronesia: DeCou