Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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FXPQ50 PGUM 100613
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
Issued by National Weather Service Honolulu HI
413 PM ChST Thu Jul 10 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite observations show mainly scattered mid and high clouds
with a few smaller convective lower clouds in vicinity of the
islands. Larger areas of thunderstorms remain outside of the coastal
waters to both the west and the east. Light southeasterly trade winds
remain in place with the surface high far away to the northeast of
the area.

&&

.Discussion...
The Marianas are experiencing a relatively quiet weather pattern
between converging monsoon flows and trade winds. Expect a mix of
isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
next couple of days, with a potential for heavier showers over the
weekend and into next week.

&&

.Marine...
Sea state and surf will remain steady, but with a slight increase in
trade swell and sea height, especially for east facing reefs over
the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF show an increase in combined seas
this weekend emanating from an easterly swell. Seas only look to
rise 1 to 2 feet, but the increase in swell is expected to lead to a
moderate risk for rip currents along east facing reefs this weekend.


&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Eastern Micronesia will remain under the influence of the Inter-
Tropical Convergence Zone and trade-wind troughs, leading to a
occasionally wet end of the week. Models indicate a broad sustained
increase in trades across eastern Micronesia tonight through the next
few days, bringing moderate to fresh winds throughout the region.
This will lead to increases in trade swell and sea height, and
subsequently an increase in surf, mainly for east-facing reefs. For
Kosrae, surf is expected to remain at hazardous levels of 8 ft
until around Sunday, and the High Surf Advisory has been continued.

Earlier buoy data off Kosrae`s southern shoreline showed combined
seas of around 4 to 6 feet, which are expected to increase another
foot or so through Friday. Earlier altimetry passes showed combined
seas of 5 to 7 feet between Kosrae and Majuro, and 6 to 8 feet east
of Majuro. Seas will continue to rise tonight through the next day
or two, but then trade winds and associated wind waves and swell are
expected to relax early next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Continued unsettled weather due to a convectively active southern
flank of the monsoon trough into early next week. Expect significant
pulses of showers and thunderstorms over the next several days, with
peak potential over the weekend, especially for Palau. Consistent
higher rainfall rates next week could lead to a threat of mudslides,
and this potential will need to be reassessed over the coming
weekend.

A primarily small southwest swell will dominate, with a persistent
east swell mixing in by Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions. Isolated heavy showers can quickly drop conditions
to MVFR or IFR CIGS and/or VIS, which would be confined to less than
an hour temporarily.

&&

$$

Marianas: Brenchley
East Micronesia: Brenchley
West Micronesia/Aviation: Brenchley