281
FXPQ50 PGUM 140654
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
454 PM ChST Fri Nov 14 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery show mostly sunny skies with fast-moving isolated
showers over the region. Altimetry shows combined seas of 5 to 6
feet, while buoy data shows seas heights of 4 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Pleasant weather is in store for the Marianas. An upper level high is
inhibiting any significant rainfall from happening. With that said,
passing surface trough are expected to bring isolated showers over
the next several days. Winds are expected to build to breezy (25 mph)
conditions by Sunday and remain breezy through much of next week.
Winds may build to strong towards the middle of next week.

&&

.Marine...
Gentle to moderate east winds are expected for tonight. However,
these winds are expected to build to moderate to fresh by Sunday.
Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet are also expected to gradually build
to 5 to 7 feet by Sunday. There will be a moderate risk of rip
currents along north and east facing reefs of the Marianas through at
least Tuesday. Both seas and winds are expected to maintain their
respective magnitudes through the first half of next week. This will
allow the surf to build by about a foot along east facing reefs
Sunday. Seas may increase again around the middle of next week, the
surf may rise again along east facing reefs.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
An Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extends westward into
the region from 6N180, through Majuro and Kosrae, then curves
southwestward, meeting the equator at 157E. Moderate to deep
convection is found across much of the Marshalls and Kosrae State, as
well as a bit of speed divergence in the upper-levels, southeast of
a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT), supporting ITCZ showers
near Majuro and shearing cloud tops northeastward across the atoll.
The ITCZ is expected to extend further into the region, building
into Pohnpei Saturday morning. Showers may become numerous at times
Saturday and Saturday night for Kosrae and Saturday night for Pohnpei,
with occasional gusts to 25 kt, then the ITCZ starts to fragment
across Pohnpei and Kosrae on Sunday, meanwhile a fairly unsettled
pattern looks to remain for Majuro into next week. Additionally, a
cutoff upper-level low may set up over the northwestern RMI, which
may be favorable to ITCZ convection as it gradually rebuilds early
next week.

Latest altimetry shows seas of 4 to 6 ft and seas increasing to
around 8 to 10 feet east of the Marshalls, near the Date Line. Wave
models still indicate that seas will briefly subside 1 to 2 ft across
the forecast locations this weekend, increasing again next week as a
trade-wind surge builds across the region. This is mainly north of
9N, however we will still monitor any potential for surf and small
craft hazards next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite observations show generally quiet conditions across
western Micronesia with scattered showers seen near Palau and Weno,
and isolated showers near Yap Proper. Altimetry data shows combined
seas between 4 and 6 feet across the region.

The forecast across western Micronesia remains largely unchanged.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm look to continue for
Palau through Saturday. A brief lull in shower activity is expected
Saturday night before scattered showers return Sunday and into next
week. Shower coverage across Yap will generally be isolated to low-
end (30%) scattered through the period. For Chuuk, the Near
Equatorial Trough (NET) will keep scattered showers around through
much of the period. Towards the end of the forecast period, winds
could approach moderate to fresh across northern Chuuk and Yap
States.

Little to no changes were made to the marine forecast. Benign
combined seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected through the weekend.
Through the first half of next week, seas look to rise 1 to 2 feet
as a trade-wind swell begins to influence marine conditions. Both
GFS and ECMWF wave guidance shows a more dramatic increase in seas
the latter half of next week as the trade-wind swell fully enters
the region. Seas could become hazardous to small craft across
northern Chuuk and Yap States, and hazardous surf may be possible
along north facing reefs of Weno and Yap Proper. Trends will be
monitored for the potential for deteriorated marine conditions over
the next several days.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Bowsher
East Micronesia: Cruz
West Micronesia: Williams