576
FXPQ50 PGUM 212112
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
712 AM ChST Sat Aug 22 2026

.Marianas Synopsis...
Typhoon Saudel (17W) is getting ready to pass north of Saipan, on its
way to Agrihan. Weather should be fairly subdued today with partly
sunny skies and low-end scattered showers. WaveWatch 3 model
forecasts combined seas of 5 to 7 feet rising to between 7 and 9
feet in Guam and Rota Waters and combined seas of 7 to 9 feet rising
to between 8 and 11 feet in Tinian and Saipan.

&&

.Discussion...
A monsoon band is setting up southeast of the islands. One more day
of fairly good weather today, then it should be moving in for Sunday.
There`s already a Hydrologic Outlook out, and a Flash Flood Watch is
a good possibility this afternoon. Wave heights will be just below
Small Craft Advisory criteria for Guam and Rota the next couple days,
and just above at Tinian and Saipan. Then the sea heights will
converge again as they head downward.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
Typhoon Saudel is beginning its rapid intensification while moving
northwest. It currently has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, and
is expected to intensify, passing near Agrihan with winds of around
120 mph. Saudel is moving northwest at 15 mph. It is expected to
turn slightly to the west-northwest with little change in forward
speed. Damaging winds are imminent or occurring at Alamagan, Pagan
and Agrihan.

For more information on Typhoon Saudel, please refer to the Tropical
Cyclone Warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO
header WTPN31 PGTW and the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Mostly scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected at
all three forecast points through tonight. Locally heavy showers will
be possible at Majuro as a broad area of disturbed weather sits just
east of the RMI this morning. This area of disturbed weather will
drift to the west-northwest over the coming days and promote periods
of numerous, locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across
portions of eastern Micronesia, starting today at Majuro. Light to
gentle winds will continue today at Majuro and Pohnpei and increase
to gentle to moderate on Sunday with gentle to moderate winds
prevailing at Kosrae this weekend. Majuro may reach moderate to fresh
south to southwest winds on Sunday. Combined seas at all forecast
sites are around 4 to 6 feet today and will likely drop a foot or
two starting late tonight. Otherwise, elevated surf along south-
facing reefs will continue through the weekend at Kosrae.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Wet and unsettled weather will continue for a good portion of the
Republic of Palau and Yap State as moist, southwest flow has set up
in the region. High-end scattered to numerous showers are expected at
both Yap and Palau for the next couple of days with heavy rainfall
possible. Fresh to strong southwest winds can be expected with gusts
to 35 knots, especially near heavier showers and thunderstorms.
Please reference the Special Weather Statement in effect for
additional details. Meanwhile at Chuuk, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend with
mostly light to gentle southwest winds expected. Though, low-end
moderate winds cannot be ruled out. Seas up to 10 feet or so will be
possible in the coastal waters of Palau and Yap through at least
Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect at Yap
and Palau given the hazardous seas and strong winds. The High Surf
Advisory at Chuuk along south-facing reefs was allowed to expire this
morning; though, elevated surf will still be possible through the
weekend along south-facing reefs.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM ChST Sunday for MPZ002-003.

     Tropical Storm Watch for MPZ002-003.

Marianas Waters...Tropical Storm Watch for PMZ153-154.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST Sunday for PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

Marianas: Stanko
East/West Micronesia: Whisnant