Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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653
FXPQ50 PGUM 042012
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
612 AM ChST Sun Oct 5 2025

.Marianas Update...
Looks like partly sunny skies and isolated showers are on tap for
today in the Marianas, based on radar and satellite. We have the
light winds for island convection, however it`s looking like we won`t
get the sunlight required for island heating with the clouds that
have moved in. The inherited forecast had already removed the island
convection, so the only change made was to group the zones back
together, since the biggest single reason for the zone split was now
in the past. The other reason was winds 10 to 15 versus winds 15 to
20, so just called the winds 10 to 20. The buoys continue to show
wave heights of 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
The former Invest Area 94W has now been designated Tropical
Depression 28W. Tropical Depression 28W is just barely within our
Area Of Responsibility. It is forecast to move straight west, staying
just within our AOR for at least a day or two. For additional
information, please see the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued
by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the
Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW.

A tropical disturbance is now the subject of Invest Area 95W. 95W is
centered near 7N154E. Currently, there is judged to be no chance for
95W to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. It is
being watched for possibly future development outside of that time
range. Information on 95W will be harder to come by until it actually
starts to develop.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia Update...
There`s a lot of mid and high level cloudiness in Eastern Micronesia.
The actual convection is mainly east of Majuro, with a smaller
cluster between Majuro and Kosrae. So, today should actually be on
the drier side. So the update was to lower the PoP`s to around 20 at
Kosrae and Majuro, while retaining the partly sunny skies, since
there are so many mid and high clouds floating around. At Pohnpei,
retained the lower PoP`s, but raised the amount of clouds, as mid
and high clouds are streaming in from the northwest.

&&

.Western Micronesia Update...
The forecast for Western Micronesia looked fine as was, so just
reformatted to freshen up the date and time groups to say Today
instead of Sunday, etc. A fairly wet week for Yap and Chuuk at least,
and somewhat also Koror, but slightly less so.

&&

.Prev discussion... /issued 812 PM ChST Sat Oct 4 2025/

Tropical Systems Update...
Invest 94W is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert,
meaning tropical cyclone development is likely within 24 hours. The
latest location for 94W is 23.8N and 143.3E, well north of the
Marianas and east-southeast of Iwo To. Maximum sustained winds are
23 knots and the system is moving north-northwestward at 4 kt. For
more information on Invest 94W, see bulletins issued by JTWC under
WMO headers WTPN21 and ABPW10 PGTW.

Prev discussion... /issued 524 PM ChST Sat Oct 4 2025/

Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies, while radar imagery
shows a few island effect showers near northern Guam. Buoy data
shows sea heights of about 2 to 3 feet. Altimetry did not get a good
pass near the islands today.

Discussion...
The Marianas is in the inflow convergence region of Invest 94W. Being
in this region means as 94W strengthens so to will the change of
showers increase. The island convection that was in the forecast has
been removed due to the expected increase in cloud cover. Showers
are expected to increase as Tuesday approaches. A trough is
anticipated to pass over the Marianas then bring in high-end
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region. Once this
trough passes, pleasant weather may return.

Marine/Surf...
Combined seas of 2 to 4 feet and light to gentle winds are expected
through at least Wednesday. There is a low risk of rip currents
along all reefs through at least Wednesday. There also remains a
moderate risk of lightning through at least Wednesday.

Tropical Systems...
Invest 94W is centered over the far northern CNMI near 23N143E. 94W
is now rated as medium, meaning that development into a significant
tropical cyclone is expected, but not within the next 24 hours. 94W
is expected to continue to move west over the coming days as it
continues to consolidate. Invest 94W will be monitored closely for
the next few days. For more information on Invest 94W, see bulletins
issued by JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW.

Eastern Micronesia...
A dry pattern has moved into Kosrae and Pohnpei for tonight, while
Majuro is seeing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as a
trade-wind trough approaches from the east.

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has drifted north
allowing a drier pattern to move into Pohnpei and Kosrae. This dry
pattern will be short-lived as the ITCZ, though weaker, is expected
to drop south while a weak trade-wind trough moves through. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to move into Kosrae
Sunday and into Pohnpei Sunday night. Increased convection will
continue at Pohnpei through most of next week as weak troughs
continue to traverse the area. POPs (Probability of Precipitation)
will range from 30 to 50% as the ITCZ wavers north and south. Kosrae
will see a drier pattern return around the end of next week as the
ITCZ moves out of the state.

Majuro will see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through
tonight as a trade-wind trough moves through and interacts with the
ITCZ. For Sunday, scattered showers will continue, though will
decrease. There will be a brief dry period for Sunday night, followed
by another trade-wind trough bringing increased showers Monday and
Monday night. By Tuesday, a dry pattern returns to Majuro and
continues through the end of the week.

Marine conditions are expected to remain fairly benign, with light to
gentle winds and combined seas of 5 feet or less continuing through
most of next week.

Western Micronesia...
Satellite imagery shows a broad trough gradually moving into Chuuk
this afternoon. Late tonight and into Sunday, models continue to
indicate some development with this feature as it slowly drifts
northwest over the next day or so as a tropical disturbance.
Unsettled weather is in store for Chuuk through Sunday or Sunday
night, until the disturbance pulls away to the northwest, then
scattered showers will continue through much of the upcoming week as
a fragment of the ITCZ lifts northwest into the area.

Meanwhile, patchy showers and light to gentle west to southwest
winds over Yap and Palau are expected over the next couple days.
Then, conditions begin to deteriorate Monday and Tuesday as distant
Invest 94W and the aforementioned disturbance in central Micronesia
support a southwest monsoon pattern over the region. Showers are
expected to become numerous at times, mainly for Yap, with locally
heavy showers possible.

Scatterometry and altimetry data indicates benign marine conditions,
light to gentle winds and combined seas of around 2 to 4 feet across
the region. A pulse of southwest swell looks to build across Palau
waters Monday, driven by a developing monsoon-like pattern, but no
marine or surf hazards are expected at this time. Winds will remain
mostly light to gentle, becoming moderate at times as the monsoon-
like pattern strengthens.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$


Marianas/East and West Micronesia/Tropical Update: Stanko
Tropical Systems Update: Cruz
Marianas: Bowsher
East Micronesia/Tropical: Kleeschulte
West Micronesia: Cruz