489
FXPQ50 PGUM 030830
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
630 PM ChST Wed Dec 3 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies and radar imagery shows
isolated showers over the Marianas. Altimetry shows seas of 6 to 8
feet while buoy data shows 7 to 8 feet. The High Surf Advisory (HSA)
and a High Risk of Rip Currents statement (HRRC) remain in effect.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly pleasant weather for the forecast period. Winds are expected
to be 15 to 20 mph for the next 24 or so hours and will gradually
taper down to 10 to 15 mph by the end of the week. The winds are
expected to build up to 15 to 20 mph again for the weekend. The next
chance for scattered showers is anticipated to be a passing trade-
wind trough around Thursday night into Friday morning. Then it is
right back to a typical dry season pattern.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate to fresh trades and combined seas of 7 to 9 feet are
expected to decrease slightly as the elevated trade winds east of
the region weaken, and the long period northeast swell subsides.
Winds are expected to become gentle to moderate Thursday, with
seas decreasing to 5 to 7 feet. As a trough passes near the
Marianas around Thursday night and Friday, scattered showers are
expected to move into the waters with isolated thunderstorms
possible for Guam and Rota coastal waters.

The surf remains around the 7 to 9 foot mark allowing for the high
surf advisory and high risk of rip currents statement to be extended
for the overnight hours. Surf is expected to drop below the 9 foot
criteria level over the next 12 hours. With that being said, surf
will remain elevated and rip current risk will drop to moderate once
these swells relax a bit.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
Invest 93W has been upgraded to a medium rating, meaning tropical
cyclone development is likely but beyond 24 hours. The system has
become more symmetric today and shows signs of improved poleward
outflow. Warm SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) and sufficiently-low
wind shear should Allow for a slow but gradual intensification
through the next 48 hours. Convective redevelopment is also underway
around the periphery of the circulation on all sides, also indicting
better organizational potential. This feature will likely exit Guam`s
AOR (Area of Responsibility, which ends at 130E) sometime late
Friday or over the weekend. For more information on Invest 93W, see
bulletins issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO
header ABPW10 PGTW.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Surface convergence is waning at Pohnpei and is minimal near Kosrae
and Majuro. This will continue into early next week, with most
locations only seeing isolated showers most of the time.

The bigger story will be seas and surf. We decided to extend the
advisories there through 4 PM Friday for the north shores of Pohnpei
and the north and east shores of Kosrae, with Majuro remaining in
Coastal Flood Advisory as well. These advisories may need to be
extended into the weekend, as model guidance continues to show
another push of north to northeasterly swell arriving by the weekend,
keeping high surf a concern. Winds will remain mainly in the
moderate to occasionally fresh range through the period.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Latest satellite imagery shows isolated showers across Palau and
Chuuk, with low-end scattered showers over Yap. Altimetry data shows
seas between 6 and 9 feet near Chuuk, with 9 feet seen north of
Weno, and between 4 and 6 feet near Yap and Palau.

For Chuuk, a band of convergence extends northwest across Weno into
Invest 93W. Latest satellite data shows a break in the convection
over Weno, however, there are scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms found northwest and southeast of the lagoon. This
convection is expected to move into Weno early in the evening,
continuing through Thursday night. By Friday morning, a dry trade-
wind pattern is expected to move in and remain over the state through
the beginning of next week.

For Palau and Yap, the Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) remains the
primary factor affecting the forecast for the next few days. The NET
extends east from near Mindanao, crossing 130E near 8N, into a weak
circulation northeast of Koror. It then turns southeast to beyond the
Equator near 147E. Most of the convection is currently south of the
NET, south of Palau, with a band of scattered showers over Yap.
Showers look to remain scattered at Yap through the next few days as
the NET drifts west along with the weak circulation northeast of
Koror. For Palau, as the NET drifts west, expect showers to increase
Thursday morning. Scattered showers look to continue at Yap through
Friday night and at Palau through Saturday. Due to the instability
over the region, isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast
through the same time periods. The dry pattern moving into Chuuk is
then expected to move into Yap Saturday and Palau Saturday night into
Sunday.

For Chuuk, combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected to continue
through the weekend. This will be a combined northeast trade swell
and long-period north swell. The north swell is expected to build to
around 4 feet Thursday afternoon. The long-period north swell and the
northeast trade swell will combine with a King Tide cycle to produce
minor inundation along north and east facing reefs of Chuuk. For
now, the coastal flooding is expected to be around 1 foot and last
into the weekend. However, if the north swell lasts longer, the
Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended. For Palau and Yap,
combined seas of 3 to 6 feet are expected for the next few days.
Over the weekend, another round of north swell is expected to move
into both Yap and Palau and could result in hazardous surf conditions
along north facing reefs.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001.

 High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for
 MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Bowsher
East Micronesia: Doll
West Micronesia: Kleeschulte