524
FXPQ50 PGUM 080857
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
657 PM ChST Fri Nov 8 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Latest satellite and radar imagery are showing generally partly
cloudy skies and isolated showers. Nearby buoys are showing seas of 4
to 6 feet, comprised mainly of an elevated trade swell.

&&

.Discussion...
Fairly benign weather expected through Saturday night with mainly
isolated showers expected. A tropical disturbance (Invest 94W)
southeast of Chuuk will approach the Marianas through the weekend.
The latest forecast model trend favors a passage of 94W near to
south of Guam Sunday night into Monday, possibly as a tropical
depression or weak tropical storm. Strong winds and locally heavy
rainfall leading to flash flooding possible, especially over Guam and
Rota. As this disturbance is still poorly organized, much uncertainty
remains regarding the strength, track and timing of its eventual
passage south or through the Marianas. Improving conditions expected
by around Tuesday, but another tropical disturbance (Invest 93W)
currently over the northern Marshall Islands could be a major player
mid to late next week.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet and gentle to moderate winds expected
through Saturday night. Seas and winds begin to increase on Sunday as
a potential tropical disturbance (Invest 94W) approaches from Chuuk
State. The general forecast model trend favors a passage of 94W near
to south of Guam Sunday night into Monday. Winds and seas could
become hazardous to small craft, especially for Guam and Rota waters.
Winds and seas looks to then decrease beginning Tuesday but another
tropical disturbance (Invest 93W) could approach the Marianas mid to
late next week.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along north and
especially east facing reefs as the elevated trade swell continues. A
low risk of rip currents is expected along south and west facing
reefs. Surf and rip risk could rise beginning Sunday as a potential
tropical disturbance (Invest 94W) could pass through the southern
coastal waters later Sunday into Monday, bumping up swell and wind
waves.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
Invest 92W is located well west of the Marianas and well north of
Yap, centered near 15N140E, and remains fairly disorganized with a
"low" rating by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), meaning
development into a tropical cyclone unlikely within 24 hours. Invest
92W will continue to move west and slowly become better organized,
possibly developing into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the
northern Philippines by late weekend.

Invest 93W is centered well northwest of Majuro near 11N165E, and is
moving to the northwest. JTWC has upgraded 93W to a Tropical Cyclone
Formation Alert (TCFA), which means development into a tropical
cyclone (tropical depression) is likely within 24 hours. Invest 93W
will continue to impact the northern Marshall Islands with heavy
showers, gusty winds and choppy seas through the weekend. Further
strengthening is probable into next week as it pushes away from the
atolls of the RMI and possibly towards the Marianas.

Invest 94W is located to the southeast of Chuuk, centered near
3N156E, and remains fairly disorganized with a "low" rating by JTWC,
with development into a tropical cyclone unlikely within 24 hours.
This disturbance is favored to slowly develop and strengthen as it
shifts northwest over the next few days, likely passing just south of
Chuuk Proper tomorrow through tomorrow night, then continuing
through eastern Yap State towards the Marianas on Sunday. The
latest forecast model trend favors a passage of 94W near to south
of Guam Sunday night into Monday, possibly as a tropical depression
or weak tropical storm, and then near to north of Yap Proper Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
An active pattern continues across eastern Micronesia with JTWC
Invest 94W near Nukuoro in Pohnpei State and 93W moving across the
northern RMI. Numerous to widespread locally heavy showers extend
across most of Pohnpei State, north Kosrae State, and northern RMI.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain near Kosrae
through tonight due to the proximity of these dual systems. 93W and
94W are expected to continue drifting northwest, maintaining numerous
locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms with gusts around
25 mph through tonight for Pohnpei, although gusts around 93W looks a
bit stronger, up to 35 mph or 40 mph, near northern RMI. A Special
Weather Statement has been issued for Majuro, regarding the northern
RMI. The disturbances look to pull away from the region by Saturday
night allowing for conditions to improve.

A drier airmass is pushing in behind 93W, suppressing shower
potential near Majuro tonight and quieter conditions move into
Kosrae this weekend and momentarily for Pohnpei Sunday and Sunday
night. Model guidance is showing an uptick in ITCZ showers starting
this weekend for Majuro and early next week for Kosrae and Pohnpei,
bringing another active stretch of scattered showers next week.

Kosrae and Pohnpei buoys now showing seas 5 to 6 feet this
afternoon. Combined seas are closer to 6 to 7 feet near Majuro and up
to 7 to 9 feet in the northern RMI, close to 93W. With heavier
showers across Pohnpei State, northern Kosrae State, and northern
RMI, expect choppy seas and fresh to strong gusts at times, possibly
near-gale force closer to 93W.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite reveals quiet conditions over the Republic of Palau, which
sits just southeast of a broad, weak surface circulation. Palau
received some rainfall from island convection earlier this afternoon,
but showers are otherwise spotty across much of the region. To the
north and northeast, moderate to deep convection is seen in a broad
area along the southern periphery of another circulation, JTWC`s
Invest 92W. Showers are located over northern Yap State including Yap
Proper. Yap can expect scattered showers over the next few days as
92W moves away to the west and another tropical disturbance, Invest
94W, shifts northwest into the region from over Chuuk State. 94W is
currently located near Nukuoro over southwest Pohnpei State, and
looks to move northwest over the next few days, passing to the south
of Chuuk Proper tomorrow through tomorrow night before passing the
outer islands of eastern Yap State through Sunday night. This
disturbance will bring unsettled weather across Chuuk State and the
eastern outer islands of Yap State, and a Special Weather Statement
has been issued. Main impacts include widespread locally heavy
showers and strong gusty winds, which will lead to choppy seas and
could make travel between islands hazardous at times. Early next
week, 94W looks to pass northwest between the Marianas and Yap
Proper, leading to an increase in showers and gusty winds near Yap
for Monday through Tuesday.

Marine conditions are fairly benign for the time being. Babeldaob
buoy data shows combined seas of 2 to 4 feet near Palau. To the east,
SOFAR buoy data shows 3 to 5 foot seas to the south of Chuuk State.
Higher winds and choppier seas are expected for Chuuk through the
weekend as Invest 94W crosses Chuuk State.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas/Tropical: Slagle
Eastern Micronesia: Cruz
Western Micronesia: DeCou