947
FXPQ50 PGUM 081952
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
552 AM ChST Sat Aug 9 2025

.Marianas Update...
Drier weather will continue in the Marianas today. The weekend is
looking rather laid back weather wise, with 3 to 4 foot seas and
isolated showers. There were a couple of thunderstorms just north of
Saipan Waters, but we took the chance that they would die down and
left them out. So far that has verified, will keep an eye on it.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
Tropical Storm Podul is moving west-northwest now, it was northwest
yesterday afternoon, while the speed of motion has remained similar.
Podul is past Farallon de Pajaros, which is now on the back edge of
the CDO (Central Dense Overcast). Maximum sustained winds remain at
50 mph, however Podul is expected to begin intensifying again as it
moves away from the islands.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia Update...
A fairly dry pattern continues across the region this morning, with
spotty to scattered showers mainly found along a few weak trade-wind
troughs moving through the region. One of these troughs is just east
of Pohnpei and has been generating some spotty to low-end scattered
showers through the night, so the potential for showers at Pohnpei is
30 percent today, and 20 percent for Kosrae and Majuro. It was also
noted this morning that a weak upper-level trough extend near the
Date Line is starting to extend into the Marshall Islands. There have
been a few lightning strikes detected in the spotty convection that
been able to develop under the upper-level trough, so decided to add
isolated thunderstorms to Majuro`s forecast for this afternoon.
Otherwise the forecast remains unchanged from yesterday, with a
relatively dry pattern continuing through, only broken by periods of
scattered showers as weak trade-wind troughs pass near the islands.

The marine forecast remains unchanged as benign seas of 3 to 5 feet
look to continue through the weekend. Seas may increase a foot or so
early next week as a trade-wind swell moves into the region.

&&

.Western Micronesia Update...
A light to gentle wind pattern with pockets of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms continues to be seen across the region. Infrared
satellite imagery overnight showed that the convection just east of
Palau and Yap dissipated as it drifted westward towards the islands,
but new convection is developing to the east again this morning and
is also slowly moving westward towards the islands. This trend
should continue through the day. A weak surface trough near Chuuk is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
northeastern waters of Chuuk. This feature is expected to move
through this morning and should allow showers to decrease this
afternoon. Newest model data overnight shows little change from what
the GFS and ECMWF were depicting yesterday evening. The GFS continues
show a disorganized pattern with light to gentle winds this weekend
with an overall easterly flow by the middle of next week, while the
ECMWF continues to hint at a weak south to southwest monsoon-like
pattern emerging early next week. Around the middle of next week, a
surface trough is still anticipated to pass through Chuuk State and
on to Yap and Palau, bringing a more-organized pulse of showers.

On the waters, seas remain benign, largely between 2 and 3 feet
according to buoy and altimetry data, with a mix of light easterly
and southeasterly swell and wind waves. No significant changes are
expected through early next week.

&&

.Prev discussion... /issued 538 PM ChST Fri Aug 8 2025/

Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies with spotty showers and light to gentle winds
prevail across the Marianas this afternoon. Buoys and altimetry show
seas between 2 and 3 feet.

Discussion...
Pretty quiet conditions are seen across the Marianas today. Partly
cloudy skies with isolated showers look to be the rule through most
of the coming week. The only significant change over the next several
days will be with the passage of some upper-level divergence bringing
an increased chance of thunderstorms to the region Sunday and Sunday
night. Model guidance is indicating a weak pressure gradient moving
into the region around the middle of next week. If this unfolds, Guam
could be looking at some island convection around Tuesday and
Wednesday next week. Decided to keep showers at the 20 percent range
for now, until this becomes a bit more solid.

Marine...
Benign marine conditions look to continue across the Marianas for at
least the next several days. Light to gentle southeast winds are
expected through the middle of next week, with occasional moderate
winds Sunday and Sunday night, mainly over Tinian and Saipan.
Combined seas of around 3 feet will build slightly to between 3 and 4
feet over the weekend.

Tropical Systems...
Tropical Storm Podul has maintained a northwest motion today and is
now passing near the northernmost of the Mariana Islands, Farallon de
Pajaros. Though with tropical storm winds of 50 mph, as of 1 PM, the
tropical storm force winds of 39 mph are far enough north that the
tropical storm watch was cancelled for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.
Despite Podul being well north of the 3 islands, northeasterly shear
has kept persistent deep convection focused atop the northern
islands. As Podul continues northwest and away from the northern
Marianas tonight and Saturday, winds, heavy rains, and seas will all
diminish. NWS Guam will continue to issue 6-hourly public advisories
for Podul until it exits the AOR. Those advisories can be found under
WMO header WTPQ32 PGUM.

Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite observations show partly cloudy skies and isolated showers
across Pohnpei and Majuro and scattered showers across Kosrae.
Altimetry and buoy data show combined seas between 2 and 5 feet.

Overall, the relatively dry pattern looks to continue across eastern
Micronesia through the next several days with a couple of days of
slightly higher PoPs possible for Kosrae and Majuro. Tonight,
scattered showers taper down and become isolated overnight. Through
the weekend, we`ll be looking at a trade-wind trough that will bring
slightly higher PoPs to Kosrae and Majuro Saturday night and Sunday.
This trough looks to weaken before moving into Pohnpei, so only 30%
PoPs are forecasted. As we head into next week, we`ll see isolated to
low-end (30%) scattered showers across the region. The exception is
for Majuro on Wednesday where another round of 40% PoPs will be
possible. Both the GFS and ECMWF show little change towards the end
of the period with the relatively dry trade-wind pattern continuing.

Benign combined seas of 3 to 5 feet look to persist through the
weekend. Seas may increase a foot or so early next week as a trade-
wind swell moves into the region.

Western Micronesia...
A lackluster pattern of light to gentle winds and loosely-organized
clusters of showers and thunderstorms persists across the region.
Afternoon visible imagery shows one region of convection east of Yap
and Palau drifting westward. Near Chuuk, a surface trough that
brought heavy morning showers has pushed west of the lagoon with
showers now diminishing. Blended TPW shows these 2 maxima of moisture
moving on a slow westward trek. Similar to yesterday, models show
little organization in the overall pattern with winds largely staying
below 10 mph, sometimes light and variable seemingly at the whim of
nearby convection. While the GFS is more disorganized in the overall
pattern, the ECMWF hints at a weak south to southwest monsoon-like
pattern emerging early next week. Around the middle of next week, a
surface trough is still anticipated to pass through Chuuk State and
on to Yap and Palau, bringing a more-organized pulse of showers.

On the waters, seas remain benign, largely between 2 and 3 feet, a
mix of light easterly and southeasterly swell and wind waves. No
significant changes are expected through early next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas Update: Stanko
East/West Micronesia Update: Schank
Marianas: Kleeschulte
Tropical: W. Aydlett
East Micronesia: Williams
West Micronesia: W. Aydlett