466
FXPQ50 PGUM 101922
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
522 AM ChST Tue Nov 11 2025

.Marianas Update...
A dry trade-wind pattern will continue for the next several days. No
changes were made to the inherited forecast. Combined seas between 4
and 7 feet and gentle to moderate winds are expected to remain
through the week. There will also be a moderate risk of rip currents
along west, north and east facing reefs for the next few days.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia Update...
All three forecast points are drier today than expected in the
previous forecast. This is expected to change through the day for
Pohnpei and Majuro, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms moving into Pohnpei and Majuro near noon. However,
Kosrae is expected to remain dry through today, with increased
convection possible later tonight as the Inter-Tropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ) drifts farther south. Mostly light to gentle winds are
expected through the week, with Pohnpei seeing occasional moderate
winds after midweek. Seas will remain between 4 and 6 feet, with
occasional 7 feet at Kosrae.

&&

.Western Micronesia Update...
A drier pattern remains over in place at both Yap and Palau. This is
due to surface high pressure ridge extending northeast across Palau
to just west of Yap Proper. This ridge looks to move farther west
through the day, allowing increased showers and isolated
thunderstorms to push into both locations later today, near or just
after noon. For Chuuk, convection has drastically decreased across
the state. This could change this evening, but will remain dry
through today. Otherwise, all the forecasts remain unchanged through
the remainder of the week. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for
Yap and Palau along west and north facing reefs. Surf will continue
to subside through the day and is expected to fall below hazardous
levels this afternoon.

&&

.Prev discussion... /issued 618 PM ChST Mon Nov 10 2025/

Marianas Synopsis...
Light to gentle trades prevail. Doppler radar indicates conditions
fitting for an outing to see the beautiful sunset. Seas are 5 to 8
feet.

Discussion...
A drier trade-wind pattern will continue for at least the next
several days. A chance for clearer skies suitable for stargazing, is
coming up in the second half of the week, most notably Thursday
night or Friday night.

Marine...
Combined seas of 5 to 8 feet, comprised of a weakening easterly
swell, strengthening northerly swell, and persistent westerly swell,
are expected to persist for several days while varying in strength
throughout the week. While seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels, seas will continue to be choppy as these
swells continue to mix. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected
along west, north, and east facing reefs of the Marianas for at
least the next few days. Surf is expected to be elevated but remain
below hazardous levels along all reefs for much of this week. As
various swells (trade swell, northerly swell, westerly swell) begin
to diminish, surf may drop enough to allow the rip current risk to
drop to low along east and west facing reefs before Friday.

Eastern Micronesia...
A pair of troughs will be the focus this week. The first trough is
departing Kosrae and approaching Pohnpei, giving scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to both. Then upstream from there, another
trough is bringing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to
Majuro. These two features will keep at least scattered showers in
the forecast this week, except at Kosrae where shower coverage may
briefly drop back to isolated Tuesday night. otherwise, the active
convective pattern continues.

As for seas, they look to hold in the 4 to 6 foot range. Winds will
be light to gentle through Thursday most of the time, becoming gentle
to moderate towards the weekend area-wide.

Western Micronesia...
Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers extend Palau and Yap due to
the influence of ridge-like pattern that was created in the wake of
distant TY Fung-wong and slowly shifting westward. Near the Equator,
centered near 3N145E, a broad and elongated circulation is noted in
visible satellite imagery, with the CIMSS 850-500 mb analysis showing
a broad area of vorticity over the area. A subtle trough extends
northwest from the circulation up toward Yap Proper, and model
guidance support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing along this trough and near Yap late tonight and then
extending towards Palau on Tuesday. For by Chuuk, convergent flow and
passing trade-wind troughs are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across Chuuk, with numerous and heavy showers
located between 5N and the Equator. Over the next few days, model
guidance shows the elongated circulation moving westward and
remaining south of 5N, with convergent flow north of the circulation
supporting an overall wet pattern across Palau, Yap, and Chuuk over
the next few days. As the circulation shifts westward, the overall
wet patter will continue at Palau and Yap through the end of the
week, while Chuuk will see a brief decrease in showers Thursday
before passing trade-wind troughs increases the potential for showers
once again around Friday and into the weekend.

Altimetry data suggest seas are around 6 to 8 feet around Palau and
Yap and 5 to 7 feet around Chuuk. Palau and Yap are still experience
hazardous surf up to 9 feet along west and north facing reefs as the
slowly decreasing northwest swell from TY Fung-wong is slowly being
replaced by a northwest to north swell that was generated by strong
winds near Japan. Surf is expected to remain hazardous through
tonight and then dropping below 9 feet by Tuesday evening. The
coastal flood advisory for Yap and the coastal flood statement for
Palau was allowed to end this afternoon as the magnitude of the high
tide has been decreasing with the end of the King Tide Cycle,
reducing the risk for coastal flooding. For Chuuk, a mix of northerly
and easterly swells will move through the region, but surf is not
expected to rise above hazardous levels of 9 feet along north facing
or 12 feet along east facing reefs.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas/East and West Micronesia Update: Kleeschulte
Marianas: Montvila
East Micronesia: Doll
West Micronesia: Schank