012
FXPQ50 PGUM 020813
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
613 PM ChST Tue Dec 2 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies and radar imagery shows
isolated showers over the Marianas. Altimetry shows 8 to 9 feet
while buoy data shows 7 to 9 feet. There is a High Surf Advisory
(HSA) and a Rip Current Statement for a High Risk of Rip Currents
(HRRC) in effect.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly pleasant weather for the forecast period. Winds are expected
to be 15 to 20 mph for the next 24 or so hours and will gradually
taper down to 10 to 15 mph by the end of the week. The winds are
expected to build up to 15 to 20 mph again for the weekend. There is
a chance that the showers south of Guam`s coastal waters may build
northwards, however, this is low confidence in this coming to
fruition. This is due to Invest 93W heading more west than north. The
next chance for scattered or more showers is anticipated to be a
passing trade-wind trough around the end of the work week.

.Marine...
The combination of the strong trade-wind swell and a long-period
north swell are hanging on longer than anticipated. To reflect this
the HSA and the HRRC were extended/continued until Wednesday
afternoon. Seas of 9 feet and buoy data of 7 to 9 feet support this
choice. Seas are expected to gradually taper down as the distant
systems move more eastward and the trades gradually relax a bit near
the weekend. Seas and winds are expected to remain below the 10 foot
and 22 knot thresholds for a Small Craft Advisory (SCA), however,
seas will be choppy.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
Invest 93W is a rated as Low by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
This means that tropical cyclone development is unlikely within
24 hours. Satellite imagery shows this system is near 13N135E, about
350 miles north-northwest of Yap Proper. Showers have greatly
diminished since the Tropical Weather Discussion was issued earlier
this morning. This feature is expected to continue on its westward
trek over the next several days. For more information on Invest 93W,
see bulletins issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO
header ABPW10 PGTW.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A long-period northerly swell of 4 feet continues to interact with a
northeasterly trade swell to maintain high surf conditions, which
look to continue through Thursday, possibly longer. If this
continues to look likely toward the longer range, then the High Surf
Advisory will likely get extended in the next forecast issuance or
two. Additionally, minor coastal inundation concerns at Majuro will
continue through Friday.

Otherwise, embedded troughs within a fragmented ITCZ will keep
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms going for most of the
forecast package.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Latest satellite data shows fairly dry conditions across Yap Proper,
with scattered showers over Palau and scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms over Chuuk. Altimetry shows seas between 3
and 5 feet across Yap and Palau and between 5 and 7 feet for Chuuk.

Scattered showers continue over Palau this afternoon as a weak
trough moves east in the westerly flow south of the Near-Equatorial
Trough (NET). As the trough moves through, it will also be pulled
farther north as Invest 93W moves off to the west. This will allow a
drier pattern to move into Palau Wednesday morning. This dry pattern
is expected to continue through For Yap, a dry pattern currently
over the island looks to change by Wednesday morning as this trough
approaches and is pulled farther north. Meanwhile, the NET looks to
move back over Yap as Invest 93W moves farther west, pulling the NET
along with it. the NET will maintain periods of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across Yap into the weekend and bring
increased convection back to Palau Thursday night into the weekend.

For Chuuk, a narrow band of convergence over Weno is maintaining
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the lagoon this
afternoon. This convergence looks to strengthen a bit over the next
couple of days with a couple of weak trade-wind troughs moving
through to interact with it. Convection looks to increase through
Wednesday, with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Convection will begin to decrease
Thursday with POPs (Probability of Precipitation) dropping to 50%
Thursday and down to 20% Thursday night through the weekend.

Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet near Palau and Yap are expected to build
slightly later in the week, reaching 4 to 6 feet. Seas will increase
at Yap around Thursday and at Palau later in the week. Seas will not
reach levels hazardous to small craft, however, seas will continue
to be choppy over the next few days due to a combination of north
swell, northeast trade swell and small wind waves. Combined seas of
5 to 8 feet near Chuuk may drop a foot or two in the second half of
the week as trade swell weakens.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for GUZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Wednesday for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST Wednesday for MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Bowsher
East Micronesia: Doll
West Micronesia: Kleeschulte