405
FXPQ50 PGUM 070656
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
456 PM ChST Wed May 7 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Guam, most notably for
higher elevation regions where the winds are stronger.

Satellite imagery show isolated showers over the Marianas, most
notably in Saipan waters. Ritidian buoy shows about seas of about 3
to 4 feet and altimetry shows combined seas of 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
A dry trade-wind regime remains intact and is expected to continue
through at least the middle week of next week. There is one caveat
to note, time heights are suggesting a moister mid-levels for this
weekend. This suggests that the atmosphere will become better primed
for showers. Current model trends keeps showers in the isolated
category (up to 24 percent) due to a lack of surface features.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas are expected to be 3 to 5 feet through the beginning of
next week. A long-period northeast swell that is hinted at by the
wave models may makes its way in to the region near the end of the
weekend.

A moderate risk of rip currents along east facing reefs is
expected to remain for the next few days. The possible incoming
swell may increase surf along north and east facing reefs a little
bit.

&&

.Fire weather...
Today`s KBDI remains 718, winds at the airport 12 to 17 mph with
infrequent gusts up to 25 mph, and the lowest relative humidity
measured today was around 58 percent. The Red Flag Warning was
allowed to continue for higher elevation locations due to the
elevated winds passing the wind criteria (of 20 mph). During the
daytime hours when the winds are at their peak and relative humidity
are at their lowest, fires will spread easily and become difficult
to control. A wetting rain is not expected through the at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A period of elevated showers and thunderstorms caused by a building
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) nearby, will persist across
eastern Micronesia the next few days. The bulk of the convection will
continue to move west over the coming days, introducing a period of
drier conditions to Majuro this weekend, and to Pohnpei and Kosrae
early next week.

Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet near Pohnpei and Kosrae, and 5 to 7
feet near Majuro, are expected to continue as such for most of the
forecast period. Seas may rise another foot near Majuro Friday or
Friday night, as trade swell and localized wind waves increase
briefly.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop
along the band of convergence and surface troughing extending along
the southern portion of the region, between 6N and the equator, from
south of Palau to southern Chuuk State. There is also a weak trade-
wind trough in Yap State, near Eauripik, currently only producing
some spotted to low-end scattered showers. Otherwise, the main
islands of Palau, Yap, and Chuuk are fairly dry this evening and are
expected to remain dry through tonight. Models continue to show the
area of convergence and surface troughing lifting northward while a
new Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) develops just north of the equator
over the next few days. This, along with the ITCZ shifting westward
in eastern Micronesia, will push scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms into Chuuk State through the day Thursday and continue
into early next week. These features are not expected to move into
Palau or Yap until next week, however, the trade-wind trough in Yap
State is expected to move through Palau Thursday night or Friday,
passing to the south of Yap Proper. This trough will increase
showers slightly across Palau during that time period, but Yap is
expected to remain fairly dry with only some increased cloud cover.

Seas of 3 to 5 feet near Palau and Yap, and 4 to 6 feet near Chuuk
will continue through the weekend. Palau, Yap, and Chuuk are all
experiencing a gentle to moderate trade-wind flow that is expected to
continue into early next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Red Flag Warning until 4 PM ChST Friday for GUZ001.

MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Bowsher
East Micronesia: Montvila
West Micronesia: Schank