160
FNUS72 KGSP 221016
FWSGSP

Spot Forecast for Hickory Flat 4...USFS
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
516 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Today is not expected to be quite as dry as yesterday but RH still
could dip below 30 percent under milder temperatures. Better smoke
dispersion is expected than on Friday. Mixing could deepen a little
later than the usual afternoon peak. Winds will prevail from the
southwest from late morning thru afternoon. Sunday will be warmer
but similarly dry, but also with poorer smoke dispersion, owing to
lighter winds and somewhat less mixing.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........Most likely around 30 percent, perhaps as
                    low as 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Setting up from the southwest 5 to 14 mph by
                    late morning and early afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Initially poor, becoming excellent (68100 knot-ft)
                    by mid to late afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................8 early in the morning increasing to 90 in the
                    afternoon.
Stability class.....2.
Pcpn amount.........None.
Ceiling (FT)........All clouds above 20000.
Visibility (SM).....Unlimited.
Sfc pressure (in)...28.55.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24  37  37  45  50  44  37  44  43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............33  38  41  44  46  48  49  49  47
Dewpoint........19  20  20  20  19  19  19  20  20
RH..............57  48  41  37  33  32  31  31  33
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.6   7   9   13  15  15  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.2 4.3
Transp wind dir.E   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.6   5   8   10  13  14  14  15  13
LVORI...........3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............8   8   22  39  59  73  78  90  64
VRate kt-ft/10005   6   15  27  43  54  59  68  47
Ceiling (hft)...250 250 250 250 250 240 240 200 210
Visibility (sm).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sfc pres (in)...870 870 868 866 863 861 858 855 856

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......Likely decoupling, 300 ft AGL or less.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 9 mph shifting to the northwest 7 to
                    8 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 4.
Stability class.....6.
Pcpn amount.........None.
Ceiling (FT)........Mainly unlimited but with all clouds
                    above 16000 ft.
Visibility (SM).....Unlimited.
Sfc pressure (in)...28.49.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........29  26  19  15  6   3   1   2   3   5   4   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  41  38  36  35  33  32  31  31  31  30  29
Dewpoint........20  21  21  21  21  21  21  22  22  22  22  22
RH..............38  44  50  53  58  60  64  67  68  69  72  73
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..3   2   3   2   2   2   3   2   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  9   9   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   8   9   8   8   8   8   8   7   8
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   4
VRate kt-ft/10004   3   2   2   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Ceiling (hft)...160 160 250 250 250 250 250 250 230 210 200 210
Visibility (sm).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sfc pres (in)...856 856 856 856 856 855 854 853 852 851 849 850

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest 6 to
                    7 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Becoming fair (21600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................5 to 30.
Stability class.....1.
Pcpn amount.........None.
Ceiling (FT)........Generally unlimited.
Visibility (SM).....Unlimited.
Sfc pressure (in)...28.4.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   0   1   0   1   1   1   1   6   12  17  24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............29  29  30  37  43  47  50  53  53  54  55  52
Dewpoint........21  22  22  24  26  26  26  27  27  28  28  29
RH..............73  74  71  58  50  44  39  36  36  36  36  40
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   NE  NE  E   SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   1   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   2
20 FT wind gust.8   9   7   7   6   6   7   8   8   8   9   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 2.3
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   N   N   NW  SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   6
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   1   2   2
ADI.............7   7   6   5   12  15  22  25  25  30  30  17
VRate kt-ft/10002   2   2   4   8   10  16  18  18  22  21  12
Ceiling (hft)...230 250 350 350 350 300 300 300 300 270 270 270
Visibility (sm).10  10
Sfc pres (in)...850 850 851 852 853 850 848 845 844 842 840 840

$$
Forecaster...Jake Wimberley
Requested by...Ryan Green
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2503452.0/GSP
.DELDT 02/22/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0