433
FXUS62 KGSP 151138
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
638 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Widespread precipitation develops across the western Carolinas
tonight through Sunday night, bringing a spell of much-needed
rain to the area.
2. Dry with a warming trend next week, perhaps warming to near
record temperatures by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Widespread precipitation develops across the western
Carolinas tonight through Sunday night, bringing a spell of
much-needed rain to the area.

The first round of more substantial rainfall has begun pushing
across the SC Upstate as we approach sunrise, with widespread
low clouds now in place along and west of I-26.  Stronger moist
upglide than we`ve seen for most of the night has finally begun to
blossom over the western reaches of the CWA...as a mature surface
low now analyzed over the lower Mississippi Valley continues its
eastward march.  Operational guidance still depicts the low actually
occluding as its upper-level reflection begins to outrun it, and
beginning to weaken around and after daybreak as it pushes into
northern Alabama and Georgia.  This looks like it`ll take place
too late, however, to stop ample moisture from making it into the
Carolinas...resulting in PWs well above normal for February and some
2 to 3 standard deviations above NAEFS climatology.  So, despite
the cyclone`s weakening, there`ll be a period from mid-morning
through late afternoon today during which significant synoptic
forcing associated with the the upper wave and supplemented by the
subpolar jet will drive widespread efficient rainfall and resulting
in a weak in situ CAD wedge developing east of the NC mountains.

Impact-wise...this still looks like it`ll produce QPF of 1.1-1.5"
across most of the area along with isolated higher values across the
Blue Ridge Escarpment.  The 00z HREF depicts probability-matched
mean values in excess of 1.5" across parts of the southeastern
Upstate and NC I-77 corridor, which may be due in part to the
potential for some erosion of the in situ wedging during the
afternoon.  Both the 00z HREF and the 00z REFS depict 40-50%
probability of appreciable surface-based instability developing
along the extreme southern and eastern tier of the forecast area
as a result, which could produce localized higher rainfall rates
in these areas during the afternoon and early evening should any
convective towers develop.  Still, with D2-D3 drought across most
of the forecast area...this is expected to be a beneficial rain
rather than a problematic one.

Tonight, operational models still depict secondary cyclogenesis
somewhere between the NC Sandhills and Outer Banks, which should
effectively push a backdoor cold front across the Carolinas
overnight, eroding the wedge and bringing an end to precipitation
by early Monday morning.


Key message 2: Dry with a warming trend next week, perhaps warming
to near record temperatures by Thursday and Friday.

Cold Air Damming wedge will be quickly to break down Sunday night
into Monday as the parent surface high shifts off the New England
coast and the upper shortwave trough slides off the Carolina coast.
This will allow for a return of above average temperatures with
highs climbing into the low to mid 60s beneath mostly sunny skies.
Heading into mid week, global models and their respective ensemble
members paint a coherent picture with a flat and broad upper ridge
extending from Mexico across the Gulf. On the poleward side of the
ridge, a belt of westerlies is progged to extend from the Desert
Southwest to the Appalachians. Rising heights and warming low-level
temperatures within an expansive warm sector will promote a
continued warming trend with highs soaring to the upper 60s and low
70s on Wednesday with low to upper 70s common by Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures late week may challenge daily record highs.
Most of the forecast will remain dry with a couple isolated to
widely scattered showers on Thursday. Rain chances may increase by
Friday as an upper trough axis swinging across the Great Plains into
the Mississippi Valley helps to finally push a stalled frontal
boundary towards the area. Guidance diverges by this point, however,
with respect to timing of the boundary into the area and coverage of
any associated showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Murky, murky, murky, in store for today.
Already seeing some heavier RA and associated MVFR ceilings
at the Upstate sites, a little ahead of schedule.  Guidance is
in good agreement that when restrictions develop elsewhere and
conditions crash after 12z, they`ll crash HARD, with deterioration
from VFR to MVFR to IFR or worse taking place in just 2-3 hours
this morning, as rainfall quickly intensifies across the terminal
forecast area.  Expect widespread LIFR ceilings for much of the day
today, and periods of heavier precipitation accompanied by IFR to
LIFR visibility.  Some locations - best confidence is at KAVL -
will see 25-35kt LLWS during the day today also.  Winds will be
light and out of the SE, becoming NE by mid- to late-morning.
Quick improvement is expected after sunset as dry air begins
filtering in behind this system...with a rebound to at least MVFR
by midnight, and VFR likely at all the TAF sites after midnight.
Continued clearing will take place into the first part of Monday.

Outlook: VFR returns by Monday morning and dry conditions persist
through the end of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

MPR/TW