910
FXUS62 KGSP 230135
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
935 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure lingers over the area through Saturday keeping
mostly dry conditions around.  A warm front lifts north Sunday
and beyond, producing steadily increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances through next week.  Below normal temperatures will remain
through Saturday, before beginning to warm next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 933 PM Thursday: A quiet evening continues across the region
as dry high pressure builds in from the west. The ongoing forecast
is on track and no changes were needed.

The weather should be quiet once we lose the gusty winds this
evening. The air mass will continue to be dry courtesy of weak high
pressure building in, so low temps will once again be as low as five
degrees below normal. We will remain under a brisk but weakening NW
flow aloft thru Friday that should bring the center of the high to
the mountains late in the day. Winds should not be as gusty. The
weaker downslope and cooler air will keep the high temps about five
degrees cooler than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 124 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and cooler than normal on Saturday, with increasing clouds.

2) Increasing rain chances on Sunday.

Still looks like heights will gently rise on Saturday as the
base of a z500 speed max lifts off the Atlantic coast, then
level off on Sunday as the upper pattern starts to flatten out.
Some DPVA embedded in a belt of upper-level westerlies will allow
for increasing cloud cover on Saturday afternoon and evening,
though profiles don`t look like they`ll be moist enough to support
any QPF response.

By Sunday, the low-level flow will take on an increasingly W to SW
component, allowing a weak tendril of wraparound moisture to stream
in from the Gulf.  It`s neither a strong flow nor a direct one,
so profiles are only expected to moisten slowly...and this will
keep QPF response fairly unimpressive even when rain begins Sunday.
Temperatures will start out some 8 degrees below normal on Saturday,
then creep to within a category of normal on Sunday with rising
heights and low-level WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 201 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled weather lingers for much of the extended period.

2) Diurnal thunderstorms return each afternoon by mid-week.

3) Temperatures a little below normal through the period, but
warmer than this weekend.

Multiple shortwaves will traverse the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
next week within an area of constrained upper flow just to our
north.  In general, this pattern looks to interact with a broad
baroclinic zone over the Southeast to produce deeper moisture
flux into the area.  Through Monday and Tuesday, it appears
that residual subsidence (or based on some GFS and EC ensembles,
even a weak surface wedge) over the Carolinas will keep things
too stable for thunder to become a concern.  Through midweek and
beyond, long-range ensembles depict increasingly favorable thunder
chances...particularly on Wednesday afternoon as some sources depict
surface cyclogenesis and at least a brief period during which we`ll
see more of a warm-sector like environment.  So currently expect
improving thunder chances toward the end of the extended...but at
this point, no major severe concerns given the better kinematics
tend to stay north and west of our area in most ensemble solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. Gusty winds this evening will subside
overnight, although a few gusts may linger at KAVL. Gusts return
tomorrow afternoon with winds remaining out of the northwest.
Otherwise a few high clouds along with a few cumulus tomorrow
afternoon will pass across the area with no impact.

Outlook: VFR and mostly dry through the first half of the
weekend. Shower and thunderstorms chances return late this weekend
into early next week.  Mountain valley fog and low stratus are
possible each morning over the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...PM/TW
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TW