067
FXUS62 KGSP 121044
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will slowly drift north along the East Coast through
early next week. This system may bring rain to the North Carolina
Piedmont and eastern Upstate tonight this evening as it passes by to
our east. The low will then drift offshore by midweek, as dry high
pressure builds in from the west and brings above normal
temperatures to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 am EDT Sunday: A cyclone off the South Carolina coast
is currently at or near its nadir, and is soon expected to begin
a steady weakening phase as it drifts slowly northeast through
the period. A ragged precip band associated with this feature
continues to move gradually across the I-77 corridor this morning,
but further westward progress will be restricted by a region of
rather dry mid-level air across the heart of the CWA. PoPs peak
circa 12Z before steadily diminishing...with likely-to-categorical
probabilities confined to locations roughly east of a Union,SC=>
Charlotte=>Salisbury line, tapering toward the west such that
chances are <20% across roughly the western half of the CWA.
Additional precip amounts of up to 0.1" or so are possible where
PoPs are likely/categorical. Max temps are again forecast to be 5 or
more degrees below normal under thicker cloud cover across the
eastern third of the area, while highs are expected to be a category
or so above climo across the western third. Other than lingering/
token small PoPs across the east, drier conditions are expected
tonight, with generally above-normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 AM Sunday: By Monday morning, the synoptic pattern will
begin to amplify and evolve as upper ridging builds from the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the same time,
a potent trough and associated closed upper low will be diving down
the Pacific Coast and into the Great Basin. The building ridge will
in turn shunt broad upper troughing along the East Coast offshore by
Monday night with the coastal low shifting farther east as well.
This will bring an end to persistent cloudiness, gusty winds and
showers across the area with rising heights supporting a warming
trend to start the week. Afternoon highs are forecast to climb back
into the mid 70s to low 80s both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1224 AM Sunday: Heading into mid week, guidance is in good
agreement that a northern stream trough will dive down the eastern
flank of the upper ridge and into the Ohio Valley and New England.
Another day of warm temperatures will continue on Wednesday with mid
70s to low 80s persisting. A large surface high shifts over the
Great Lakes on Thursday with a backdoor cold front dropping across
the region, which should knock several degrees off high
temperatures. The pattern becomes much more progressive by late week
as the previously mentioned Great Basin trough ejects across the Great
Plains. The upper ridge will also slide east, but will begin to
flatten/weaken, which should keep temperatures from being too warm
over the weekend. The pattern remains dry through much of the
period, but there are some indications that rain chances may return
late next weekend. A series of troughs is forecast to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Saturday the evolution of which will dictate
the late weekend forecast. Guidance diverges as to how the pattern
unfolds with some members digging a more potent trough across the
Southern Plains into the Deep South while other members are less
amplified. Will leave the forecast in line with the National Model
Blend for now until guidance comes into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT: A ragged band of mostly light rain and attendant MVFR
cigs associated with a developing cyclone off the Southeast
Coast will continue to gradually move toward KCLT from the east
through the morning, with tempo -RA and MVFR conditions forecast
from 12-15Z. Rain chances will diminish during late morning, but
MVFR cigs are forecast to fill in during this time, with little
improvement expected through the day. A gradual improvement in
cigs is forecast tonight into early Monday as moisture begins to
pull away in conjunction with the cyclone moving away from the
coast. Otherwise, NNE winds of 12-14 kts, with gusts of 20-25
kts are expected to continue through the daylight hours, steadily
diminishing this evening, but remaining around 10 kts through the
end of the period.

At the other TAF sites: low VFR/MVFR cigs are expected to reach
KHKY by early afternoon, but VFR is otherwise forecast at the TAF
sites through at least this evening. Cannot completely rule out
brief rain could as far west as KGMU/KGSP and KHKY this morning,
but the chance is only 20% at these sites, and any mention of
precip is therefore omitted for now. Winds will remain N/NE at
9-12 kts at most sites through the period, with some gusts of
around 20 kts possible later this morning into the afternoon.

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions are expected to return region-wide
on Monday and persist thru at least the middle of next week,
although there will be some potential for mountain valley low
stratus and/or fog each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JDL