827
FXUS62 KGSP 051840
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure system lifts northeastward from the
Carolina coast tonight allowing brief drying to develop tonight into
early Friday. A cold front brings back scattered to numerous
thunderstorms this the weekend with a few possibly becoming strong
to severe, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Unsettled
weather will stick around through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 pm EDT Thursday: A surface wave is currently centered
near the southeast corner of the CWA early this afternoon, and will
continue to drift toward southeast NC through the evening. As a
result, deeper moisture and lift will continue to shunt east of the
CWA, and cloud cover will gradually scatter from W=>E as low level
flow turns toward the N and NW. Other than a few areas of light rain
that are slowly dissipating within deformation axis across the NC
foothills and Piedmont, precip has moved east of the CWA. However,
strong insolation over far southwest NC has resulted in
destabilization to the tune of 1000-1500 J/kg of sbCAPE across the
Smokies and vicinity. Agitated cumulus in those areas should evolve
into scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, and
this is where the highest PoPs (30-40%) will be advertised into
early evening. Otherwise, PoPs drop to slight-chance-at-most across
the majority of the area be late afternoon, as instability remains
limited underneath low, albeit thinning clouds. Lower theta-e air
filtering gradually into the area tonight will result in little in
the way of precip chances beyond mid-evening or so. Despite the flow
turning to the NW, it`s looking unlikely that this flow will be
strong enough to completely scour the moisture from the top-down,
and forecast soundings mostly depict saturated near-surface
conditions under dry mid-levels. It`s therefore looking like a good
fog/low stratus setup tonight, with some potential for at least
patchy dense fog. Min temps will be a little above normal.

A radically different weather regime is in store for Friday, as any
low clouds will quickly mix out during the morning under W/NW low
level flow. Strong insolation and weak compressional warming will
result in max temps a good 5 degrees above normal, with highs of 90
expected across a good portion of the SC/GA/southern NC Piedmont.
This will result in good destabilization, with sbCAPE of at least
2000 J/kg by the time of peak heating. Scattered convection should
fire by mid-afternoon near the Blue Ridge and move E/SE into the
foothills during late afternoon. By the end of the period,
additional convection is likely to move into the CWA from east
Tennessee in advance of a short wave trough. General 50-60 PoPs are
advertised across the mountains...tapering to 20-30% across the
Piedmont. Instability should be sufficient to allow for a few strong-
to-severe storms, especially later in the day, when improving wind
fields are expected to result in deep layer shear increasing to 25-
30 kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather Continues into the Weekend

2) Strong to Severe Storms Possible Each Afternoon and Evening

3) Breezy Winds will Develop Each Afternoon and Evening

An MCS will track across the forecast area Friday evening into
Friday night. A weakening trend is expected as it pushes across the
southern Appalachians so confidence on the severe weather potential
remains low, especially with the line coming through outside of peak
heating hours. A few strong to severe storms cannot be entirely
ruled out, mainly across the SW NC mountains Friday evening into
Friday night. The main hazard with any severe storms that manage to
develop are damaging wind gusts. Another round of convection will
develop well ahead of a cold front on Saturday afternoon and
evening, and with 1,000-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of deep
layer shear in place, scattered strong to severe storms are
possible. SPC has the entire forecast area in a Slight Risk for
Saturday and this looks well placed. The main hazard with any severe
storms on Saturday will be damaging wind gusts. The cold front will
continue progressing eastward on Sunday, pushing across the western
half of the forecast area towards the end of the period. Another
round of strong to severe storms will be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours with similar parameters (compared to
Saturday) developing ahead of the front. Once again damaging wind
gusts look to be the main hazard with any severe storms that
develop. Breezy winds will develop each afternoon and evening
through the weekend ahead of the front but will remain well below
advisory criteria. Highs will end up 3-5 degrees above normal on
Saturday, climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s east of the
mountains. Highs on Sunday will a few degrees cooler, ending up near
to a few degrees below normal. Lows will remain a few to several
degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled Weather Lingers through the Long Term

2) Strong to Severe Storms are Possible Each Afternoon and Evening

3) Above Normal Highs Return Monday before Below Normal Highs
Develop the Rest of the Period

Another cold front will approach out of the west Monday into early
Tuesday before tracking across the forecast area late Tuesday into
Wednesday. The front will push east of the forecast area by early
Thursday. This will allow unsettled weather to linger throughout the
long term, with convection expected to develop each afternoon and
evening. The strong to severe storm potential will be in place each
day, with ample shear and instability in place ahead of the front.
The strong to severe threat may linger behind the front on Thursday
with instability returning. However, with shear expected to be lower
(20 kts or less) behind the front, confidence on the severe
potential for Thursday is low at this time. Highs will rebound to a
few degrees normal on Monday before highs drop a few degrees below
normal Tuesday into Thursday. Lows will remain a few to several
degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Precipitation is quickly becoming less
widespread across the Terminal Forecast Area this afternoon, as
deeper moisture and lift are shifting east. However, low level
moisture will remain plentiful in the near term, resulting in
continuation of IFR cigs at KCLT, and (mostly) MVFR conditions at
the other sites until at least late afternoon. All sites are
forecast to improve about a category by this evening. Meanwhile,
moisture will continue to deplete from the top down as low level
flow steadily turns from easterly to northerly and eventually NW.
However, it`s looking increasingly unlikely that moisture will be
able to completely scour through tonight, and the potential for
redevelopment of low cigs and especially fog late tonight into early
Fri is increasing. As such, IFR conditions have been reintroduced to
KCLT and KHKY between 06-09Z, with mostly MVFR elsewhere. However,
with the mid-levels drying out and moisture becoming increasingly
confined to the near-surface layer, the potential for widespread
LIFR conditions does exist. Any restrictions should be quick to clear
out by late Fri morning. Much warmer/more unstable conditions are
expected Fri afternoon, with scattered convection expected, but this
will mainly be across the mtns and foothills, and after 18Z. General
light N/NE winds this afternoon are expected to become light/vrbl
overnight, then light SW by late Fri morning.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDL