090
FXUS62 KGSP 132336
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
736 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will slowly drift offshore through mid week as dry and
warmer high pressure builds in across the region. This will allow
for a return of above normal temperatures through Wednesday. A
backdoor cold front drops south across the area Thursday bringing a
brief cool down before temperatures warm again over the weekend. The
next chance for rain may come on Sunday as an upper trough crosses
our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Monday: The remnants of earlier closed cell
convection continues to drift southward over the western Carolinas
while slowly diminishing in coverage. Most of the area should
be clear by midnight. Should be quiet overnight. There are mixed
signals regarding the development of the mtn valley fog, but the
latest thinking is that the boundary layer will remain stirred
up enough by a northerly wind that fog would be prevented. Lows
remain unchanged.

Otherwise, the embedded upper trof/closed low currently centered
over our area will eventually lift NE and off the Atlantic Coast
later tonight and into Tuesday. In its wake, stout upper ridging
will spread further eastward and over the Southeast, supporting
broad sfc high pressure that build into our area from the west. This
should keep us dry with temperatures continuing to gradually warm
on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday: A large, highly amplified upper ridge will
extend from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest thru the
short term. Shortwave energy will round the ridge axis and dive
thru the Great Lakes, helping carve out an upper low invof Maine
and New Brunswick. Wednesday will be warm and sunny, with highs
around 10 deg above normal. Then a dry backdoor cold front will
slip thru the area Wednesday night, as sfc high pres builds into
the eastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. The front may not even
have any clouds with it, and just bring temps back down to near
normal for Thursday and Friday. Dry weather will continue thru the
end of the workweek, with mountain valley fog possible each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday: Upper ridge axis will begin to shift east
this weekend, shifting from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern
Seaboard by late Saturday. Corresponding sfc high will also shift
east, allowing a return flow to spread across the region and bring
temps back above normal. The latest deterministic guidance is in
better agreement on a deep longwave trough ejecting out of the
Rockies and becoming negatively tilted across the Ohio Valley by
Sunday. An attendant cold front will push thru the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and pick up speed as it crosses the OH/TN Valleys Saturday
night thru Sunday. Such dry air out ahead of the cold front may
result in a thinning frontal band of moisture. This may limit
QPF and any thunderstorm chances by the time the front reaches
the forecast area. Models are in decent agreement on the fropa
occurring Sunday with little to no sbCAPE. The NBM PoPs look good,
with high-end chc to low-end likely PoPs in the mountains Sunday,
tapering to just 20-30% chance in our eastern zones. Temps will
be near to a few deg above normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period. A
brief VFR-level bkn ceiling is possible at KCLT this evening. Latest
thinking is that mtn valley fog will be held at bay by a steady N
wind overnight. Winds will be somewhat variable between NW and NE
outside the valleys. Otherwise, mostly clear sky. Some gusts are
likely at KAVL on Tuesday.

Outlook: Expect mostly dry, VFR conditions to persist thru the
week, except for the potential for mountain valley fog and/or low
stratus each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM