009
FXUS62 KGSP 230002
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
702 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure remains through the weekend and into next week. A
warming trend begins this weekend that move temperatures back above
normal early next week. Next chance of rain is possible midweek next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 6:25 PM EST Saturday: We`re still seeing some very light
returns on the RADAR mosaic over our eastern-most zones, but with
the low-level dry air still in place, any precip should be evapor-
ating well above the sfc. A broad deck of high-based stratocumulus
associated with a dampening h5 shortwave continues to make its way
eastward over the region, but should begin to sct over the next
few hrs as the upper-level support moves east of our area.

Otherwise, the upper shortwave will move off to the east quickly
after sunset, with little more than the cloudiness to show for it.
Clouds should continue to sct/dissipate thru the evening, giving us
another mostly clear night with light winds. Expect that temps will
not have much trouble dropping down into the 20s once again as sfc
high pressure moves back in from the west behind the upper wave.
Sunday should be another fair weather day with the new high firmly
in control. Temps should climb back up to normal in the afternoon.
Fire weather concerns should be tempered by slightly higher dewpoints
as a weak moisture return continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EST Saturday: Amplified upper ridging across the
western CONUS will help to carve out a downstream shortwave trough
over the Gulf Coast as it will be in the process of shifting
into the eastern Gulf of America at the beginning portions of
the forecast period. The shortwave will traverse across the Gulf
Coast/southeastern CONUS Monday into Monday night before shifting
offshore over the western Atlantic by Tuesday. Deeper moisture and
overall QPF response continues to remain south of I-20 and should
keep the CFWA dry as weak high pressure remains in place to the
north/northeast. Broad cyclonic flow aloft is expected to settle
in over the northern half of the CONUS by Tuesday as a series of
embedded shortwaves resides in the base of the mean flow as a very
strong closed upper low pivots north of the Hudson Bay.

The first shortwave looks to move across the Upper Great Lakes
and northeastern CONUS Monday night into Tuesday. In clipper-like
fashion, QPF response will reside in the vicinity of the parent
low, but all model guidance keep any precip north of the CFWA. In
this case, the sensible weather for the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia is forecasted to remain dry in a relatively
unsettled pattern to the north and south. Temperatures will be
on a warming trend Monday into Tuesday as highs Monday will be ~5
degrees above normal, while Tuesday may be the warmest day of the
week with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. Increased fire
danger may arrive early next week as dewpoints don`t change much,
but temperatures will increase leading to lower RH values and allow
for fuels to dry as well. Winds shouldn`t be factor as any gusts
that develop will be on the low end.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday: Another amplified upper ridge will
shift over the West Coast Wednesday, which will help to sharpen
the cyclonic flow aloft and create a longwave trough over the
Central Plains. The upper trough and an attendant frontal boundary
will shift eastward and encroach the region later Wednesday into
Thursday. Model guidance are in decent agreement with bringing
in our next chance for mentionable PoPs on Thursday as the cold
front swings across the area. The better forcing for ascent and
overall dynamics will reside to the north, closer to the parent
low. QPF response remains light as the front moves into a relatively
moisture-starved environment. Not much change in the airmass behind
the front as only a brief shot of height falls will be in store,
leading to temperatures being near-normal to end the workweek before
a gradual rebound occurs by D7 as weak upper troughiness remains
in place. Can`t rule out a few northwest flow snow showers behind
the front along the TN border, but little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. Temperatures are expected to be 5-10
degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday before returning to
near-normal values by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: expect dry, VFR conditions to prevail at
all terminals thru the 00z taf period. The current deck of strato-
cumulus should gradually sct/dissipate as the evening wears on and
the upper-level support moves east of our area. Otherwise, other
than some high clouds later tomorrow, skies should remain mostly
clear. Outside the mtns, winds should start off SLY to SWLY and
eventually go light and vrb later tonight. They are expected to
remain that way thru tomorrow, with some sites favoring a SWLY
direction during the aftn/evening with speeds < 5kt. At KAVL,
winds are expected to weaken over the next few hrs and continue
to favor a NWLY direction. They should eventually go light and
vrb tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will linger thru early next week with
VFR conditions expected.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JPT/PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JPT